China-US Competition for DRC Copper and Cobalt

 Discovery Alert published on 8 October 2026 an analysis titled "Why China's Grip on DRC Copper Is Deepening, Not Loosening" by Muflih Hidayat.  

China's share of imported copper from the DRC, the world's second largest copper producing nation after Chile, climbed to 45 percent in the first seven months of 2026.  Chinese companies have spent years building vertical integration across the DRC's mining and refining sectors, controlling an estimated 70-80 percent of industrial-scale copper-cobalt production.  

The DRC this year banned exports of copper and cobalt concentrate, forcing more domestic value-added processing.  New smelter capacity in the DRC is largely backed by Chinese capital.  This has the effect of strengthening Beijing's position, making it difficult for American and European companies to compete.

Nevertheless, US imports of DRC copper surged in 2026, although it remains to be seen if the surge is durable and whether the Lobito Corridor project can change the nature of US-China competition in the DRC.

Western Mining Companies Can Compete with Chinese Companies in Africa

Reuters published on 25 September 2026 an article titled "Western Miners Can Match China's Speed If African Governments Cut Red Tape, KoBold  President Says" by Maxwell Akalaare Adombila and Oliva Kumwenda Mtambo.

California-based KoBold Metals says Western miners can match China's pace in developing critical minerals in Africa as long as governments streamline approvals and improve coordination among regulators.   

China and US Compete for South Africa's Platinum

 Semafor published on 21 September 2026 an article titled "South Africa Woos US and China with Platinum" by Alexis Akwagyiram, Tiisetso Motsoeneng, and Sam Mkokeli.

South Africa is the world's leading supplier of platinum and seeking to gain influence with both China and the United States.  The US needs it for catalytic converters and defense equipment while China needs it to develop green hydrogen as a form of sustainable energy.

At the political level, the Trump administration continues to alienate South Africa, while China is cultivating the South African government.  Washington's criticism of South Africa shows no signs of abating, which risks losing more ground to Beijing in the race to secure access to Pretoria's critical minerals.

American versus Chinese FDI Flows to Africa

 Semafor recently published a chart titled "Chinese versus US Foreign Direct Investment Flows into Africa."

The chart covers eleven years from 2014 through 2024.  China had larger investment flows to Africa every year except for 2022 and 2023.  The US actually had negative investment flows for four of the eleven years.

Comment:  This is one more indication that the Trump administration's "trade not aid" (and FDI) approach to Africa has severe limitations.  Not only has US trade with Africa dropped sharply this century, but FDI flows have also been on a downward trend.  Both are determined primarily by private sector engagement. It will take a herculean effort to increase significantly both US trade and FDI.  

Strategic Calculus of Xi Jinping's Visit to Egypt

 The Diplomat published on 8 September 2026 a commentary titled "The Strategic Calculus of Xi Jinping's Egypt Visit" by Ayesha Sikandar, National Defense University.

Xi Jinping's 1-2 September state visit to Egypt symbolized a broader shift among Middle Eastern states toward diversifying their foreign policy partnerships.

For Egypt, the visit signals not a pivot away from the United States, but rather a realignment to achieve more strategic autonomy amidst volatility in the Middle East.

Chinese and American Approach to Egypt

 Armstrong Economics posted on 24 August 2026 a commentary titled "China and Egypt Unite" by Martin Armstrong.

The author argues that Washington never seems to understand that trade and geopolitical influence go hand in hand, citing the case of China's influence in Egypt.  The United States sees Egypt in a military context while China looks at Egypt as a commercial gateway connecting three continents.

African Leaders Welcome More Players in Continent

 Vietnam.vn published on 28 August 2026 an article titled "The Geopolitical Race for Influence, Resources, and Power in Africa" by Bao Quoc Te.  

The competition for expanding influence in Africa involves more actors than ever before and is constantly evolving. Most African countries are benefiting from the increasing attention by more external countries.   

Washington Post Editorial on US-China AI Competition in Africa

 The Washington Post published on 27 August 2026 an editorial titled "How the U.S. Can Beat China in Africa's AI Race."

Software developers across Africa are adapting Chinese models to build applications tailored for African users.  But China has no monopoly on AI projects in Africa.  In compute, the US has far more to offer than China.  The US needs to revive its Power Africa initiative, which came to an end when the Trump administration dismantled USAID, in order to support African data centers.  

Russia's Ghost Reporters and Fake Experts in African Media

 Graphika, an intelligence platform based on digital relationships, coordination, and the movement of information across networks, published on 25 August 2026 an analysis titled "Umbrae Ex Machina: Mapping Russian Ghostwriting Operations Across African News Outlets."

Russia has been planting ghost reporters and fake experts in African media to advance its strategic interests on the continent.  This report provides an overview of the English-and French-speaking network of Russian ghost reporters in Africa.  It identified 44 ghost writers and fake experts who were active between 2021 and 2026.  Their media content was duplicated or quoted on 138 websites and republished on at least 113 Facebook accounts.

Don't Let Iran War Distract US from Africa

 Brookings published on 27 August 2026 a commentary titled "Don't Let the Iran War Distract the United States from Africa" by Landry Signe.

The Iran war risks distracting the United States from Africa when competition for critical minerals, trade, and alliances with African countries become more intense.  China, France, Russia, UAE, and India are accelerating their engagement on the continent, meaning any American retreat will come at a high geopolitical opportunity cost.  

China Steps Up Engagement with Egypt

 Al-Monitor published on 26 August 2026 an article titled "China's Xi to Visit Egypt for First Time in Decade as Military, Huawei Ties Grow" by Jack Dutton.  

President Xi Jinping will make his first visit to Egypt in a decade next week.  The visit comes after the beginning of a joint military air exercise and as Huawei seeks to supply more than 2,000 advanced AI chips for Egyptian government data centers.  Huawei's move prompted Washington to consider backing a rival offer from US technology companies.

Interview on Multipolarity and Africa

 Eurasia Review published on 26 August 2026 an article titled "Interview with Professor David Shinn" by Kester Kenn Klomegah.

This is a brief interview focused on the impact of Chinese and Russian-led multipolarity in Africa.  While many African countries have taken advantage of the multipolar world to improve their situation, there is nothing static about the current engagement of external players in Africa.  The alignments today may look very different in a year or two.  

China-Africa Ties and US Policy

 The Congressional Research Service published on 6 August 2026 a paper titled "China-Sub-Saharan Africa Ties and U.S. Policy" by Nicolas Cook, Lauren Ploch Blanchard, and Michael D. Sutherland.

China presents its engagement in Africa as promoting mutually beneficial economic development without imposing political conditions.  In practice, China seeks to use integrated multidimensional engagement to advance its broader global strategic goals of expanding its international influence, strengthening its access to natural resources, and challenging US global leadership.

Economic activity is a central pillar of China's activity in Africa.  Beijing's policy banks and state-backed lenders have extended numerous loans to African governments and other actors, making China a key bilateral creditor on the continent.  China engages in education and media cooperation, and provides development aid via grants and concessional loans, technical assistance, and humanitarian programs. Security cooperation between China and African countries has grown, especially over the last decade. 

US-China Differences on Global Warming Pose Dilemma for Africa

 The Institute for Security Studies published on 14 August 2026 a paper titled "US-China Rivalry Puts Africa's Climate Diplomacy to the Test" by Dhesigen Naidoo.

China has been a consistent signatory of the Paris Agreement while the Trump administration withdrew from it during both its first and second iterations.  

The author argues that Africa must maintain a positive climate-action approach while navigating the American anti-climate stance.  US support for fossil fuel-based development has gained momentum, slowing Africa's pathway to low carbon development.

Chinese Companies Hold Inside Track for Ethiopia's Huge New Airport

 Vietnam's VN Express published on 16 August 2026 an article titled "Africa's Biggest Airport Project Puts Chinese Firms on Shortlist" by Phan Anh.

Chinese state-owned companies have been short-listed for 15 of the 33 places for Ethiopia's $12.5 billion international airport outside Addis Ababa.  No US company made the shortlist, but Boeing supplies most of the aircraft for the Ethiopian Airlines fleet.  

The project requires more than $9 billion in external funding.  This is the most expensive aviation project ever undertaken in Africa.

US and Chinese Companies Compete for Ethiopia's New Airport

 The South China Morning Post published on 13 August 2026 an article titled "US-China Rivalry Takes Flight Over Scramble for Contracts at Ethiopia's Bishoftu Airport" by Jevans Nyabiage.  

American private sector companies and Chinese state-owned companies are competing for contracts concerning the construction of Africa's largest new airport outside Addis Ababa and the supply of equipment to Ethiopian Airlines, Africa's largest.

China and the US Compete in Africa for Satellite Development

 Semafor published on 3 August 2026 an article titled "Africa's Space Race Is Becoming Washington's Next China Challenge" by Yinka Adegoke.

Chinese companies have provided bundled satellite packages--combining hardware, launch services, financing, infrastructure and training--to more than 20 African countries.  The US, by contrast, has focused on satellite data, technical training, and regulatory cooperation rather than hardware.  This may leave Washington at a structural disadvantage.

China's AI Systems Making Rapid Gains in Africa

 The New York Times published on 5 August 2026 an article titled "China's A.I. Is Surging Across Africa.  That Should Worry Silicon Valley" by Paul Mozur, Adam Satariano, and Aaron Krolik.

China's AI is surging in Africa where buyers look for the best possible system at the lowest possible cost.  The Chinese systems are publicly available to download and modify without payment or approval.  Xi Jinping is using AI as a form of Chinese soft power.

 

US-China Competition for Ethiopia's New International Airport

 Business Insider Africa published on 30 July 2026 an article titled "Ethiopia's $12.5 Billion Airport Has Become the Latest Investment Battleground between the U.S. and China in Africa" by Solomon Ekanem.

The United States is seeking a role for its private sector companies in the development of Ethiopia's new $12.5 billion Bishoftu Airport as it challenges China's commanding position of building infrastructure projects in Africa by its state-owned companies.

The United States sees this as an opening for its construction and engineering companies and an opportunity to sell more Boeing aircraft to Ethiopian Airlines.  In addition, the Bishoftu Airport is a gateway to influence Africa's fast-growing aviation, logistics, and technology sectors.

China's Zero Tariff Policy Seeks to Change African Trade Patterns

 Asia Times published on 27 July 2026 an article titled "China's Zero-tariff Play Aims to Lock in African Loyalty" by Bob Savic.

China's zero-tariff access for 63 countries--53 of them in Africa--is a deliberate geostrategic lever in Beijing's long-term competition with the United States and Europe for influence in the Global South.  It is designed to offer unfettered, predictable, and large-scale access for African exports in contrast to protectionist markets in the United States and Europe.

The zero-tariff policy also positions Africa's growing population as a significant long-term market for Chinese goods and services and helps China to shape the rules of global commerce.

Comment:  While this may be China's goal, it must still deal with the fact that Beijing exports far more to Africa than it imports from Africa, and the initial evidence suggests that the zero-tariff policy is not having a significant impact on this situation.