Niger Demonstrates Limits of China's Transactional Diplomacy

 The Africa Center for Strategic Studies published on 30 June 2025 an analysis titled "The Limits to China's Transactional Diplomacy in Africa" by Paul Nantulya.

After supporting the democratically elected government in Niger, China has become the main financial backer of the military regime that overthrew the democratic government.  Beijing's transactional approach to Niger has turned sour.  Jihadism is thriving in Niger, including attacks on China's oil investment.  Niger is also having difficulty repaying its debt to China.  

Exodus of Chinese Ambassadors from West Africa

 The South China Morning Post published on 22 June 2025 an article titled "Routine or Rising Tensions? Chinese Ambassadors in Exodus from West African Nations" by Jevans Nyabiage.

Chinese ambassadors in Senegal, Guinea, Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger returned to Beijing at about the same time.  It raises the question whether their return was coincidental or is intended to send some kind of subtle message to the region.  

Responsiveness of Chinese Mining Companies in Africa to Resistance

 The Extractive Industries and Society journal published in September 2024 a study titled "Contention and Concessions: Exploring the Responsiveness of Chinese Mining Companies in Africa" by Jan Sandig, Jana Honke, and Claude Kabemba.  

The study sought to understand how Chinese mining companies in Guinea and the Democratic Republic of the Congo respond to resistance from local communities, workers, and civil society groups.  The authors concluded that the Chinese companies mostly conceded when facing sustained disruptive actions and pressure from hosting state elites and domestic and international non-governmental organizations.  

Cold War Lessons for Current US Africa Policy

 War on the Rocks published on 26 September 2024 an analysis titled "Be Kennedy, Not Kissinger: What Cold War Competition in Guinea and Angola Can Teach Us about U.S. Influence in Western Africa" by Nathan Heath, National Security Innovations, Inc. 

Drawing on U.S. Cold War policy, the author argues that the Kennedy administration followed a successful strategy in Guinea while Henry Kissinger pursued an unsuccessful one in Angola.

His lessons for U.S. policy in Africa today are the importance of high-level personal engagement, the need to seize openings when adversaries make mistakes, a coherent strategy, and drawing on help from countries with regional influence.  

China's Focus on African Minerals for Renewable Energy Production

 The Conversation published on 2 September 2024 a commentary titled "China's Interests in Africa Are being Shaped by the Race for Renewable Energy" by Lauren Johnston, University of Sydney.

The race for green energy is leading to a rush for cobalt, copper, and lithium by China, the United States, and Europe in countries like Guinea, Zambia, South Africa, Zimbabwe, and the DRC.  

China's Huawei to Build Digital Infrastructure in Guinea

 Wearetech.africa posted on 6 August 2024 an article titled "Guinea, Huawei Partner to Expand Digital Infrastructure, ICT Access" by Samira Njoya.

Guinea signed a memorandum of understanding with China's Huawei to develop high speed digital networks, including fiber optics, throughout the country.  Guinea received $60 million from the World Bank for digital products.  

Russia's Growing Influence in Africa

 South Africa's Institute for Security Studies published on 26 June 2024 an analysis titled "Russia's Growing Influence in Africa Calls for More Balanced Partnerships" by Denys Reva.

Russia's efforts to expand its influence in Africa have fallen short for 3 reasons.  First, its trade volume with Africa and especially its imports from Africa remain minimal.  Second, Ukraine's success in ending Russia's naval blockade in the Black Sea eased export restrictions on grain in 2023.  Third, the 2023 Russia-Africa Summit resulted in most African states opting for non-alignment.  Russia's greatest success in Africa comes from its bilateral security agreements, including training and arms transfers.

Russia Steps Up Diplomatic Blitz in Africa

 Critical Threats published on 6 June 2024 an analysis titled "Russian Diplomatic Blitz Advances the Kremlin's Strategic Aims in Africa" by Liam Karr.

High-level Russian officials are meeting with Russian partners across Africa, seeking to advance the Kremlin's strategic goals of projecting greater Russian influence to supplant the West and better positioning Russia for prolonged confrontation with the West.

Russia is trying to create a pro-Russian bloc that advances its military, economic, and political goals in Africa in the Alliance of Sahel States (Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger).  It is pursuing this program with very modest economic resources and vulnerabilities that eventually risk backfiring.  

African Perception of Chinese Leadership Edges Ahead of US

 Gallup published on 26 April 2024 an article titled "U.S. Loses Soft Power Edge in Africa" by Benedict Vigers.

Gallup just published the results for 2023 of approval ratings in 36 of Africa's 54 countries on leadership in the United States, China, Russia, and Germany.  In 2023, China nudged ahead of the United States by two points compared with 2022.  Both the United States and China remained well ahead of Russia, which did restore its position following a drop in the aftermath of its attack on Ukraine.  

The view of U.S. leadership improved significantly in Ghana, Mauritania, Cote d'Ivoire, and Tunisia but declined sharply in Kenya, Gambia, and Uganda.  China's position was much stronger in Ghana, Cote d'Ivoire, Senegal, and Guinea, but fell sharply in Gambia and Uganda.  The approval rating for the United States, China, and Russia is down significantly from where it was in 2011.

Heavily Indebted Poor Countries with Loans from China

 Visual Capitalist published on 11 December 2023 a graphic titled "Developing Countries Receiving the Most Loans from China" by Marcus Lu, Bruno Venditti, and Bhabna Banerjee.

Fourteen of the fifteen Most Highly Indebted Countries (HIPC) with the largest amount of loans from China are in Africa. In order of most loans from China, the countries are Ghana, Guinea, Ethiopia, Tanzania, DRC, Republic of Congo, Mozambique, Sudan, Zambia, Bolivia, Chad, Senegal, Niger, Mali, and Cameroon.

Comment:  This list of countries is receiving pushback in some quarters, citing the fact that Angola, which has more Chinese loans than any other African country, is absent from the list and the loan figure for Ghana appears to be excessively high.  While the amount of money China has loaned to Ghana does look to be much too high, Angola is excluded because it is NOT a highly indebted poor country.  It is oil rich and, so far, has been able to repay its loans.  

Coups In Africa's Sahel Complicate China's Relations

 Geopolitical Futures published on 23 October 2023 a commentary titled "The Chaos in the Sahel Damages China" by Giorgio Cuscito.  

Coups since 2020 in Niger, Mali, Burkina Faso, Guinea, Sudan, Chad, and Gabon have complicated China's relations in the region.  As a result, China may scale back some of its riskier economic activity in the Sahel.  

China is Africa's Preferred Partner for Digital Infrastructure

 The Centre for International Governance Innovation published in October 2023 a study titled "Navigating Africa's Digital Partnerships in a Context of Global Rivalry" by Folashade Soule.  

The study highlights how African governments are choosing their digital partners.  Africa's choice of China as its preferred partner for digital infrastructure has more to do with China offering a suitable mix of financial and technological value and the lack of viable Western alternatives, than geopolitics.  

China's Approach to Military Coups in Africa

 The InterRegional for Strategic Analysis, a consulting firm based in Abu Dhabi, UAE, published on 25 September 2023 an analysis titled "Strategic Adaptation: China's Approach to the Aftermath of Military Coups in Africa" by Mahmoud Zakaria.  

The author concluded that China has adopted a strategy of adjustment and adaptation in dealing with transitional regimes established after military coups in Africa.  This is linked to China's efforts to preserve its objectives and interests, especially in the economic sphere.  It also seeks to fill voids left by Western forces, especially France, and hopes to outpace the United States as it tries to contain transitional military regimes in these African countries.  

Chinese Private Security Companies in Africa

 The Jamestown Foundation published on 6 June 2023 an analysis titled "Chinese PSCs in Sub-Saharan Africa: The Cases of Francophone and Lusophone Africa" by Sergey Sukhankin.  

Chinese private security companies (PSCs) are gradually increasing their presence in Sub-Saharan Africa's Francophone and Lusophone countries.  They have become particularly engaged in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Mozambique.  

China Donates Patrol Craft to Counter Illegal Fishing

 The South China Morning Post published on 30 April 2023 an article titled "China Donates Patrol Boat to Sierra Leone to Tackle Illegal Fishing and Piracy off West Africa" by Jevans Nyabiage.

China donated a patrol boat to Sierra Leone to deal with illegal fishing.  This is part of a pattern of donations to countries in West Africa to combat both piracy in the Gulf of Guinea and illegal fishing in offshore waters.  Much of the legal and illegal fishing is attributed to China's distant-water fishing fleet.

China, Africa, Loans, Debt, and Infrastructure

 World Finance published on 3 August 2022 an analysis titled "End of the Line?" by John Muchira.  

The author concludes that China is cutting infrastructure financing for Africa but hopes to maintain influence by expanding trade, investment, and military cooperation.

Guinea Plays Major Role in China's New Iron Ore Policy

 The Washington Post published on 25 July 2022 an article titled "How and Why China Is Centralizing Its Billion-Ton Iron Ore Trade" by Alfred Cang.

A new state-owned organization--China Mineral Resources Group--has been put in charge of all aspects of China's iron ore program from its huge mine investment in Guinea to buying the steel making material from international suppliers.  The giant mine in Guinea is crucial as China reduces its reliance on Australian ore.  

How China's CPC and State Actors Secured Bauxite and Iron Ore in Guinea

 The Center for Strategic and International Studies published in June 2022 a study titled "CCP Inc. in West Africa: How Chinese Party-State Actors Secured Critical Minerals in Guinea" by Briana Boland, Lauren Maranto, and Jude Blanchette.

This case study explores how Chinese diplomatic, regulatory, financial and commercial actors worked in concert to secure access to bauxite and iron ore in Guinea.  Chinese diplomatic support and state financing provided conduits to help further favored projects and increase Chinese companies' access to Guinea's mining sector.  The study also highlights the role of the Communist Party of China.  

China's Role in Debt Service of African Countries

 The Green Finance and Development Center at Fudan University in Shanghai published on 21 March 2022 a study titled "Brief: China's Role in Public External Debt in DSSI Countries and the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in 2020" by Mengdi Yue and Christoph Nedopil Wang.  

The study looks at 68 countries, most of them in Africa, eligible under the debt service suspension initiative (DSSI).  It is estimated that 26 percent of the total debt service paid by the 68 DSSI countries in 2022 would go to China, compared to 17 percent to bondholders and 9 percent to the World Bank-IDA.

The five countries experiencing the highest percentage change in outstanding public external debt to China between 2019 and 2020 were Guinea (95 %), Lesotho (60 %), Burkina Faso (55 %), Sierra Leone (43 %) and Rwanda (33 %).  

Guinea Suspends Iron Ore Project with 40 Percent Chinese Investment

 Reuters published on 11 March 2022 an article titled "Guinea Suspends Simandou Iron Ore Project, Saying There Has Been No Progress" by Saliou Samb.

Guinea's military regime has ordered the cessation of all activity at the massive Simandou iron ore deposit in which the Aluminum Corp of China has a 40 percent investment.  The main sticking point seems to be disagreement over construction of a costly railway needed to transport the ore.