Houthi Red Sea Attacks and Trump Administration Response

 Reuters published on 25 March 2025 an article titled "What Are the US and Europe Doing to Counter Houthi Strikes in the Red Sea?"

The article looks at the steps taken by Europe and the Biden administration to counter Houthi attacks in the Red Sea since they began more than a year ago.  It updates the situation following the most recent strikes against the Houthis by the Trump administration.  

Shipuniverse.com published on 26 March 2025 an article titled "Red Sea Tensions Disrupt Global Shipping as Houthi Attacks Intensify."

The article explains the impact of Houthi attacks on international shipping and the way forward following the US air strikes against the Houthis in Yemen.

The Future of World Order in the Trump Administration

 Project Syndicate published on 4 March 2025 a commentary titled "The Future of World Order" by Joseph S. Nye, Jr.

The author concluded that if the international order is eroding, America's domestic politics are as much of a cause as China's rise.  The question is whether we are entering a totally new period of American decline, or whether the second Trump administration's attacks on the American Century's institutions and alliances will prove to be another cyclical dip.  We may not know until 2029.

Global Diplomacy Index: China Pulls Ahead of US

 Australia's Lowy Institute has released its "2024 Global Diplomacy Index."

China pulled ahead of the United States in global diplomatic missions in 2019 and maintained a small lead through 2023.  Russia's war in Ukraine has resulted in a significant reduction in Moscow's diplomatic representation.  Türkiye and India have significantly expanded their representation in recent years.  There has been a recent focus on the establishment of diplomatic missions in Pacific Islands countries.  

Trump Administration Considers Merging US Africa Command into European Command

 Micro Soft Network (MSN) published on 25 February 2025 an article titled "President Trump's Plan to Dismantle U.S. Africa Command Under Review" by Victor Oluwole.  

The Trump administration is considering an executive action to dismantle the U.S. Africa Command (AFRICOM) and transfer its responsibilities to the U.S. European Command (EUCOM).  This was the organizational structure prior to 2007, although the primary goal now seems to be a desire to eliminate the command in order to downsize engagement in Africa.   

Impact on Shipping of Houthi Red Sea Attacks

 The Italian Institute for International Political Studies published on 24 November 2024 a paper titled "Blue Economy and the Mediterranean: How the Red Sea Crisis is Shaping the Region's Maritime Future (and What Is Next)" by Mario Mattioli.

Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping reduced transit through the Suez Canal by about 50 percent in 2023 and 70 percent in the first half of 2024.  Transit around Africa's Cape of Good Hope adds 3,000 to 3,500 nautical miles to voyages connecting Europe and Asia, increasing travel time by about 10 days.  This results in higher costs for fuel, wages, insurance, and freight borne by shipping companies.

Can Africa and Europe Counter Markets Flooded with Chinese Products?

 The European Council on Foreign Relations published on 4 October 2024 an article titled "Value-added and Value Lost: The Macroeconomic Limits of China's Africa Strategy" by Theodore Murphy.

China's manufacturing overcapacity relies on exports to the rest of the world, including Africa, flooding international markets with both low end and high-end Chinese-made goods.  As African economies try to increase their low value manufactured products, they must compete with low-cost Chinese products.  European economies face a similar problem from China's high-end manufacturing.  

The author suggests European and African economic policy makers should counter Chinese overcapacity jointly while creating new areas for Africa-Europe economic cooperation.

China's Focus on African Minerals for Renewable Energy Production

 The Conversation published on 2 September 2024 a commentary titled "China's Interests in Africa Are being Shaped by the Race for Renewable Energy" by Lauren Johnston, University of Sydney.

The race for green energy is leading to a rush for cobalt, copper, and lithium by China, the United States, and Europe in countries like Guinea, Zambia, South Africa, Zimbabwe, and the DRC.  

Why Is Russia Reinforcing Its Military Presence in Libya?

 The US-based Institute for the Study of War published on 16 May 2024 an analysis titled "Russian Outreach Across Africa" by Liam Karr.

Much of the analysis focuses on the recent increase in Libya of Russian soldiers and equipment.  Explanations for this activity include the Kremlin's desire to acquire a naval base at Tobruk in eastern Libya where it would pose a threat to NATO countries, using Libya as a platform to supply Russian military operations in African countries to the south, positioning itself to resolve the stalemate between the Government of National Accord in western Libya and Khalifa Haftar's Libyan National Army in eastern Libya, and weaponizing migrant flows from Africa to Europe.  

Environmental Cost of Cobalt Mining in the DRC: Chinese and European Companies

 RAID in collaboration with African Resources Watch published in March 2024 a detailed report titled "Beneath the Green: A Critical Look at the Environmental and Human Costs of Industrial Cobalt Mining in DRC."

The report found that the rivers, lakes, streams, groundwater, and wetlands near the DRC's cobalt and copper mines are severely polluted by mining activities.  The mining companies in the study were all large European or Chinese multinationals.  

Chinese companies and China loom especially large in this study as China accounts for about 60 percent of global passenger electric vehicle sales and is the biggest global consumer of cobalt with more than 80 percent being used to manufacture rechargeable batteries.  About 65 percent of global refined cobalt is produced in China-based facilities.  Chinese investment now backs about 70 percent of the DRC's mining sector.  

Illegal Fishing on Chinese Vessels in African Waters of Southwest Indian Ocean

 The London-based Environmental Justice Foundation published in April 2024 a report titled "Tide of Injustice: Exploitation and Illegal Fishing on Chinese Vessels in the Southwest Indian Ocean."

China's distant-water fleet (DWF) is by far the world's largest.  This report maps the presence and activities of the Chinese DWF in the Southwest Indian Ocean, which includes the exclusive economic zones of the coastal states Kenya, Tanzania, and Mozambique and the Indian Ocean islands of Comoros, Madagascar, Mauritius, and Seychelles.  Illegal fishing and human rights abuses were found to be commonplace on Chinese vessels throughout the region.

Chinese vessels were linked to 86 unique cases (relating to 177 suspected or confirmed offences) of illegal, unregulated, and unreported fishing or human rights abuses within the Southwest Indian Ocean region between 2017 and 2023.  

Chinese Company to Locate EV Battery Factory in Morocco

 The Global Business Council posted on 30 March 2024 an article titled "Chinese EV Battery Makers Turn to Morocco."

Chinese EV battery maker, Jiangsu BTR New Material Group, has been granted approval by the Moroccan government to establish a battery factory for electric vehicles in Tanger.  The $300 million investment looks to sell the batteries to the nearby European market and take advantage of Morocco's free trade agreement with the United States to access the North American market.  

New Chinese Industrial City in Egypt?

 Egypt's Zawya published on 12 March 2024 an article titled "Egypt, China Discuss Prospects for New Chinese Industrial City."

China is in discussion with Egypt to establish a Chinese industrial zone along the Mediterranean Sea to serve the local market and exports to Europe and the United States.

Comment:  The proposal appears to be at an early stage of negotiation.  

The U.S. and Europe Challenge China in Angola

 The Wall Street Journal published on 21 January 2024 an article titled "How the U.S. Is Derailing China's Influence in Africa" by Michael M. Phillips.

The United States is challenging Beijing's commercial dominance in oil-rich Angola, Africa's largest recipient of infrastructure loans.  Angola rejected a Chinese bid to rehabilitate and operate freight service along the Lobito Corridor and granted it to a U.S.-backed European consortium.  The U.S. Export Import Bank is lending Angola $900 million to buy American equipment for solar projects and a $363 million loan guarantee for an American company to sell steel bridges.  The U.S. is also looking to sell miliary equipment to Angola.

Comment:  While this is a major success for U.S. commercial policy, it only concerns Angola and not the other 53 countries in Africa as the title of the article implies.  The U.S. still has a long way to go if it wants to challenge China commercially throughout Africa.   

Hypocrisy of China, India, and Russia on Climate Change

 Foreign Policy published on 15 December 2023 an article titled "Fossil Fuel Nations Almost Sabotaged a Climate Deal that Could Save Africa" by Nathaniel Mong'are, senior advisor in Kenya on climate issues, and Abdoulie Ceesay, COP28 representative for Gambia.  

Climate change threatens to render large areas of Africa uninhabitable within decades.  At the 2023 UN Climate Change Conference (COP28) major fossil fuel economies such as China and India ruled out calls for a fossil fuel phasedown and China and Russia shielded coal--the dirtiest of fuels--from criticism.  They did this based on the argument that curbing fossil fuel production is detrimental to the economies of the Global South.  For their part, the United States and Europe failed to commit adequate financing to support a crash program in energy transformation. 

Fiddling While Sudan Burns

 The Daily Maverick published on 17 May 2023 a commentary titled "The Sudanese State Is Collapsing, But Does the US or Africa Really Care?" by Kate Almquist Knopf, Brenthurst Foundation.

The author argues that Africa, Europe and the United States are fiddling while Sudan burns and giving free rein to Arab states to maximize their non-democratic, parochial interests.

Comment:  This argument could be made for most of the rest of the world, not just Africa, Europe, and the US.  

China's Huawei Leads 5G Sales in Africa

 The South China Morning Post published on 7 November 2022 an article titled "China's Huawei Seeks to Lead 5G Boom in Africa, as US, Europe Shut Doors" by Jevans Nyabiage."

Faced with bans in the United States and Europe, China's Huawei is focusing on Africa where African leaders are putting their interests first and ignoring Western admonitions about security or spying.

Comparing African Perceptions of European and Chinese Systems

 The Friedrich Naumann Foundations published in June 2022 a study titled "The Clash of Systems: African Perspectives of the European Union and China Engagement" by James Shikwati, Nashon Adero, and Josephat Juma.

The study compares African perceptions of European and Chinese systems and operational styles in a wide range of areas.  For example, Africans see China as best in quick decision-making and timely completion of projects.  The EU receives higher marks for supporting private sector growth, soft power activities, and on gender and human rights issues.  

US-China-Russia Security Assistance Competition

 The RAND Corporation has just published a major report titled "Security Cooperation in a Strategic Competition."  It looks at the current role of security cooperation as a tool in the emerging strategic competition among the US, Russia, and China.  It contains chapters on China and Russia's global security activities.  While Africa does not loom large in the report, there is useful information on security cooperation with the continent.  

Russia's Wagner Group Helps Blockade Libyan Oil

 Foreign Policy published on 8 July 2022 an article titled "Libya Could Be Putin's Trump Card" by Robert Uniacke.

Russia's mercenary Wagner Group is entrenched in Libya as guns for hire for Khalifa Haftar's Libyan National Army.  Some 2,000 Wagner Group mercenaries support Haftar's effort to control oil-rich eastern Libya.  The country claims to have 39 percent of Africa's total oil reserves.  Haftar has imposed a blockade on oil exports, which helps keep prices high to the delight of Moscow.    

How Russia's Invasion of Ukraine Will Impact Africa's Energy Transition

 The Council on Foreign Relations blog posted on 22 April 2022 an analysis titled "How Russia's Invasion of Ukraine Will Impact Africa's Energy Transition" by Katie Auth and Todd Moss, both at the Energy for Growth Hub.  

The authors reached 7 conclusions:

(1) African leaders will increasingly frame energy poverty as an energy security issue deserving the same urgency.

(2) The rush to boost LNG supply to Europe will stoke further African frustration with climate hypocrisy--unless development finance follows through.

(3) Rising oil and gas prices will hurt African electricity markets.

(4) But rising interest rates will also create headwinds for renewable projects.

(5) The need to diversify away from Russia will reinvigorate interest in African oil and gas production for export.

(6) As the urgency behind decarbonization intensifies, demand for critical minerals will spur investment in African mining.

(7) Russian actions (and Western financial sanctions) could give countries pause about betting on Russian nuclear technology.