Why Is Russia Reinforcing Its Military Presence in Libya?

 The US-based Institute for the Study of War published on 16 May 2024 an analysis titled "Russian Outreach Across Africa" by Liam Karr.

Much of the analysis focuses on the recent increase in Libya of Russian soldiers and equipment.  Explanations for this activity include the Kremlin's desire to acquire a naval base at Tobruk in eastern Libya where it would pose a threat to NATO countries, using Libya as a platform to supply Russian military operations in African countries to the south, positioning itself to resolve the stalemate between the Government of National Accord in western Libya and Khalifa Haftar's Libyan National Army in eastern Libya, and weaponizing migrant flows from Africa to Europe.  

Is China's Policy in Libya Shifting?

 The Diplomat published on 19 February 2021 an analysis titled "Will China Become More Active in Libya?" by Guy Burton, Vesalius College, Brussels.  

China has remained outside the conflict in Libya to leave all options open. The author concludes that China's response to recent political changes have been cautious and Beijing will continue to wait for a more definitive outcome before changing course.  Should that happen, then a more active Chinese presence may will occur.  

Chinese UAVs Get Tested in Libya

 China Brief published on 31 August 2020 an article titled "The Strategic Implications of Chinese UAVs: Insights from the Libyan Conflict" by Ryan Oliver, U.S. Army National Guard.  

China has become the world's leading exporter of combat UAVs.  They have become a key part of the civil war in Libya where the UAE supplies Chinese UAVs to Khalifa Haftar's Benghazi-based Libyan National Army (LNA) and Turkey supplies UAVs to the Tripoli-based Government of National Accord (GNA).  Between April 2018 and November 2019 there were more than 1,000 strikes from UAVs in Libya--with over 800 conducted by Chinese-made UAVs on behalf of the LNA and more than 240 carried out by Turkish UAVs on behalf of the GNA.  

Although China did not provide the Wing Loong II UAVs directly to the LNA, their employment by third parties provided the benefit of battle-testing its equipment without the risk of military or diplomatic repercussions.   

China's Balancing Act in Libya

Lawfare posted on 10 May 2020 an analysis titled "China's Balancing Act in Libya" by Frederic Wehrey and Sandy Alkoutami. 

China's hesitation to take sides in the Libyan conflict points to a desire to maximize its diplomatic and economic gains irrespective of the ultimate winner.  Part of China's strategy has remained consistent.  When balancing competing interests, the path of least resistance is most appealing and, often, this is the path of neutrality. 

China and the Conflict in Libya

The Diplomat posted on 18 June 2018 an analysis titled "Where Does China Stand on the Libya Conflict?" by Samuel Ramani, University of Oxford.

China's official policy of nonalignment in Libya should not be equated with complete detachment from the conflict as Beijing has vested interests in ensuring the UN-recognized Government of National Accord (GNA) has control over Tripoli. In order to subtly advance the GNA's position without jeopardizing its neutrality, China has actively supported a ceasefire in Libya. Although China is gradually seeking to expand its geopolitical influence in the Middle East and North Africa, Beijing's cautious handling of Khalifa Haftar's expansion of control in Libya reveals its unwillingness to engage directly in the resolution of protracted conflicts.