The US-based Institute for the Study of War published on 16 May 2024 an analysis titled "Russian Outreach Across Africa" by Liam Karr.
Much of the analysis focuses on the recent increase in Libya of Russian soldiers and equipment. Explanations for this activity include the Kremlin's desire to acquire a naval base at Tobruk in eastern Libya where it would pose a threat to NATO countries, using Libya as a platform to supply Russian military operations in African countries to the south, positioning itself to resolve the stalemate between the Government of National Accord in western Libya and Khalifa Haftar's Libyan National Army in eastern Libya, and weaponizing migrant flows from Africa to Europe.
