Space News published on 22 June 2026 a commentary titled "America Is About to Cede Africa's Space Industry to China, and Nobody's Talking About It" by Philip Dackiw.
As China advances its own space program, there is still an opportunity for US companies to forge space-based partnerships in Africa, which is looking at significant space-focused technological expansion. If the US does not seize this opportunity, China will.
The ChinaMed Project published on 12 June 2026 an analysis titled "China's Industrial Footprint in Morocco: The Case of Tanger Tech" by Imane Ezzehouany and Amanda Chen.
As Chinese manufacturers expand their presence in Morocco, concern is mounting in Europe and the United States that the Kingdom may become an "industrial platform" for China to circumvent US and EU trade restrictions.
Tanger Tech City is an emerging Chinese platform for green manufacturing driven by a convergence of interests between China and Morocco.
Modern Diplomacy published on 21 May 2026 an article titled "Geology Meets Geopolitics: The Global Race for Critical Minerals in the Climate Transition" by Marta Rehnman, Trinity College Dublin.
China dominates the processing of critical minerals in Africa and Latin America. Beijing has mining partnerships with 44 African countries. But the United States and European Union are stepping up competition for unexploited mineral reserves in both Africa and Latin America.
Rare Earth Exchanges published on 17 May 2026 an article titled "Africa Has Become the New Geopolitical Battleground for Critical Minerals."
The article summarizes a study that examines trade flows, foreign direct investment, military relationships, diplomatic agreements, mining policy, and strategic industrial initiatives shaping Africa's critical minerals economy. It evaluates how China, Russia, the United States, and Europe are accessing and responding to Africa's critical mineral wealth.
The entire study "In the Crosshairs: Twenty-first-century Rivalry for Africa's Critical Minerals" by Ron Matthews and Vlado Vivoda was published online on 11 May 2026 by the European Journal of International Security.
Brookings published on 6 May 2026 a study titled "Foreign Investment Is Not Making Friends for China--or the US" by John F. McCauley, University of Maryland, Margaret M. Pearson, John L. Thornton China Center, and Xiaonan Wang, City University of New York - Baruch College.
Drawing on over 750 Chinese and American foreign direct investment (FDI) projects in 23 African countries, the research challenges the assumption that it generates not only economic returns but also goodwill in the local community. While proximity to a major power's investment increases its perceived influence in local communities and undermines that of its adversary, it also decreases affinity for the investing power.
This reputational cost is not unique to China; U.S. investment triggers a strikingly similar backlash. Unmet expectations around jobs and local economic benefits, heightened perceptions of corruption among local officials, and concerns about external influence erode the soft power dividends that both powers anticipate. China and the United States must recognize that investing abroad can sabotage goodwill if projects are not constructed with local economic development in mind.
Comment: While the study offers a useful cautionary note about the impact of FDI, it is based on a narrow definition of the value of investment. FDI can have positive effects on the economy that go well beyond the impact on the community in close proximity to the investment project. FDI can add to a country's GDP, increase tax revenue, and have downstream economic benefits not captured in the nearby community. While the negative results on reverse model preference identified in the study are revelatory, they are modest and probably skewed by a small number of egregiously flawed investment projects.
The Conversation published on 10 March 2026 a commentary titled "China in Africa: Investment and Trade Work Well When There's Strong Oversight, and Badly When There Isn't" by Vincent Tawiah, Dublin City University.
The author concludes that Chinese investment, loans, and trade in Africa offer substantial economic opportunity, but they can also lead to the rapid depletion of vital energy and forestry resources, undermining long-term development goals if institutional guardrails are weak.
This is part 2 of the Tigray Press interview with me on 9 March 2026 hosted by Bisrat Kebede. Part 1 is posted below on 10 March.
This 44-minute segment focuses on the current situation in the Horn of Africa and the engagement in Africa of the United States, China, and Russia.
The National Interest published on 11 March 2026 a commentary titled "How Ethiopia's Involvement in the Sudanese Civil War Threatens US Interests" by Liam Karr.
Ethiopian support for the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in neighboring Sudan threatens US private and public investment in Ethiopia. Ethiopian Airlines support for the RSF could additionally cause reputational and legal liability for US interests.
US Africa Command's Africa Defense Forum magazine published on 10 February 2026 an article titled "Rebels Target Niger Junta's Oil Revenue."
The Patriotic Movement for Freedom and Justice is engaged in a campaign to topple the military junta in Niger and restore elected President Mohamed Bazoum. A significant part of the junta's revenue is generated by the oil pipeline from Niger to Benin. The China National Petroleum Corporation and its subsidiary West African Oil Pipeline Company constructed the pipeline and continue to be engaged in its operations. Most of the exported crude goes to China.
China's involvement in the project has put Chinese oil companies in harm's way. Beijing now seeks to find a way to protect both its investment and personnel still involved in the project from attacks by the Patriotic Movement for Freedom and Justice.
Foreign Policy published on 18 February 2026 an article titled "What's Behind Ethiopia's Double Digit Growth: And Can Addis Ababa's Boon Last?" by Nosmot Gdabamosi.
Ethiopia's impressive growth rate is being driven by floating the exchange rate for its currency, the birr, and strong exports of coffee and gold. But high debt and involvement in Sudan's civil war could reverse the current positive numbers.
The Ghana News Agency posted on 18 February 2026 an article titled "Africa-China Relations Need Critical Review--Prof. Amoah" by Edward Acquah.
Prominent associate professor of political science at the University of Ghana, Lloyd George Adu Amoah, recently gave a key public lecture on China-Africa relations. Amoah, who has a doctorate from Wuhan University in China, called for a critical reassessment of the relationship. He described current China-Africa relations as "heavy on form and very light on substance."
Amoah identified three phases of China-Africa relations with the last one beginning about 2011 when China became the world's second largest economy. This phase has been marked by China's "obsession with the maintenance of its new superpower status." He warned that trade with China may lock Africa into a source for commodities and result in diminished manufacturing opportunities.
Amoah added Chinese foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows constitute less than 5 percent of its global FDI stock and they are concentrated in resource rich countries and sectors such as mining and construction.
The ChinaMed Project published on 30 January 2026 an analysis titled "China and the Libyan Crisis: Maintaining a Foot in the Door in a Changing Region" by Bianca Pasquier and Leonardo Bruni.
This paper revisits the past decade of Chinese engagement in Libya, tracing Beijing's evolving relations with the country's factions and situating them within a regional context. It concludes that China is unlikely to engage deeply in Libya's power struggles. Beijing will likely keep its options open, be present but uncommitted.
Singapore's Chinese-language daily, Lianhe Zaobao, published on 30 November 2025 an article titled "Africa's Resource Battle: Has the China-US Contest Already Been Decided?" by Shen Yue. The article reports comments by Amit Jain, Director of the Nanyang Technical University-Singapore Business Federation, (NTU-SBF) Centre for African Studies. NTU-SBF provided an English-language translation of the article.
The author increasingly sees China as taking the lead over the United States in Africa with critical minerals as the main attraction for both countries. China is by far the largest trading partner with Africa, albeit heavily Chinese exports to the continent, while US trade with Africa has fallen sharply since its peak in 2009. Foreign direct investment (FDI) from China and the US varies from year to year but in 2024 Chinese FDI in Africa totaled $3.4 billion while the US figure was a negative $2 billion due to disinvestment. The US dollar is still the major currency in trade transactions, but the use of Chinese yuan is growing each year.
Deutsche Welle published on 12 December 2025 an article titled "Africa at the Center of US-China Resource Race" by David Ehi.
In 2023, American companies invested more in Africa than did Chinese companies. But figures for one year are misleading. In recent years, Chinese companies have invested more in the continent than American companies.
The author argues that US foreign direct investment (FDI) in Africa is focused on making a profit for the investing company. Chinese FDI, ultimately backed by the government of China, pursues long-term strategic goals, especially in the critical minerals sector.
Business in Cameroon published on 12 December 2025 an article titled "Cameroon-China Trade Pact Opens Door to Tarriff-Free Push for Cameroon Exports."
Cameroon and China have begun negotiations aimed at securing full, duty-free access for Cameroonian products to the Chinese market. China is Cameroon's largest trading partner and has a significant trade surplus with the country.
The China in Africa blog posted on 17 November 2025 an item titled "Has the US Overtaken China in African Investment?" by Deborah Brautigam.
American foreign direct investment (FDI) in Africa modestly exceeded Chinese FDI in Africa in 2022 and 2023 but in 2024 China's flow totaled $3.37 billion while the US flow was a negative $2.02 billion, meaning that American companies divested in 2024.
Comment: Annual flows can be terribly misleading. Total FDI stock at any given time is a better indicator of a country's investment. According to a recent Atlantic Council study, China's total investment stock in Africa peaked at about $45 billion in 2018. It subsequently declined slightly due to more divestment than new investment and totaled only about $42 billion in 2023. Adding China's 2024 FDI to the total stock would bring it back to its 2018 peak, which suggests that Chinese FDI stock in Africa has been essentially flat since 2018.
The Atlantic Council published in November 2025 a study titled "China's Economic Slowdown and Spillovers to Africa" by Matthew Mingey, Jeremy Smith, and Laura Gormley.
This report investigates how different projections of China's economic growth and structure over the next five years will affect trade and financial engagement with the African continent and what outcomes will mean for decision-makers.
The best long-term outcome for Africa is likely one in which China accepts the cost of reform to implement slower, but more stable growth. While countries could previously envision the net benefits of close trading relationships with China in 2030, trade now presents both opportunity and threat: opportunity in the form of cheap imports but complication in the form of persistent trade imbalances and overcapacity in manufacturing. Under any growth scenario, finance from China's banks and investors will continue to decline as China's domestic financial system evolves.
The London School of Economics and Political Science blog posted on 11 June 2025 a commentary titled "Military Takeovers in West Africa Are Reshaping Diplomatic Ties" by Paa Kwesi Wolseley Prah and Christian Kaunert, both at Dublin City University.
Military coups in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger have upended democratic governance, enabling China to deepen economic and strategic engagement as Western influence wanes. At the same time, there is growing concern over China's policies on debt and labor relations.
Energy News published on 26 May 2025 an article titled "Sino-Egyptian Energy Deals Worth $1.8bn Signed during Cairo Summit."
Chinese companies signed over 30 commercial agreements valued at $1.8 billion with Egyptian partners. Most of the deals are in the energy sector.
West Africa Weekly published on 26 May 2025 an article titled "Niger Orders Expulsion of Foreign Oil Workers Over Labour Violations, Demands Local Employment Compliance" by Joy Chukwu.
The Nigerien government has asked the China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) to terminate the contracts of expatriate employees who have worked in the country for more than 4 years. Niger accused CNPC of failing to comply with local labor laws.
