Africa, China, and the Green Revolution

 The South African Institute for International Affairs published on 23 October 2026 an analysis titled "Africa's Industrial Moment: Strategic Agency, China and the Green Transition" by Roli Asthana.

This policy paper urges that African nations, rather than compete directly with China, should identify specific components of clean energy manufacturing where they can develop competitive capabilities and negotiate with Chinese firms and other external investors to locate manufacturing, assembly, supplier development, and associated capabilities within African countries.  

South Africa: Competing with a Surge of Imported Chinese Manufactured Goods

 The Ubuntu Times published on 14 October 2026 an article titled "South African Manufacturers Face Growing Pressure as Chinese Imports Surge."

Imported Chinese manufactured goods have flooded the South African market since the beginning of the year, primarily as a result of lower prices than comparable South African goods.  While this is beneficial for South African consumers, it can be devastating for South African companies. The article explains what South African companies need to do to compete with Chinese imports.  

China Deepens Ties with Botswana

 Tsela Journal published on 13 October 2026 an article titled "Botswana and China Deepen Ties Through Strategic Economic Partnership."

Botswana's President Duma Boko made a state visit to China with the goal of leveraging Chinese investment to transition from a diamond-dependent economy to a more resilient, multi-sectoral one.  Botswana seeks to secure commitments that translate into jobs, technology transfer, and local capacity building.

China-Africa Trade Developments

 The Rhodium Group published on 14 September 2026 an analysis titled "Monitoring China-Africa Trade Spillovers" by Jeremy Smith.

The analysis focuses on the impact of changes in China's economy on trade with South Africa, Angola, and the DRC.  China's slowing growth and worsening trade imbalances are rapidly reshaping its economic relationship with Africa.  China's export surge to Africa lowers the cost of goods for consumers but makes domestic industrialization harder.  Africa should no longer expect the rising tide of Chinese demand to lift all boats for commodity exporters.

US Critical Minerals Policy in Africa

 The Global South Policy Hub, a Washington-based nonpartisan think tank, published on 17 August 2026 a paper titled "Aligning U.S. Critical Minerals Policy with Africa's Development Agenda" by Alaka Lugonzo.  

Africa holds about 30 percent of the world's critical minerals that power renewable energy technology.  Africa's critical mineral wealth is rapidly reshaping its relationship with the United States.  The author argues that current US mineral partnerships remain heavily tilted toward securing supply chains rather than delivering shared economic benefits.  

The United States has an opportunity to rethink its approach by moving away from extractive relationships toward transparent industrial partnerships along the lines of the African Union's African Green Mineral Strategy (AGMS).  A more sustainable approach would align US strategic interests with Africa's development agenda.

Comment:  While this is sound advice, China is a much larger importer of Africa's critical minerals than the United States.  It would be useful if some organization, particularly one in Africa, could offer similar advice for Beijing.

Is Russia Prepared to Get Serious about Africa?

 Pan African Visions published on 29 August 2026 an article titled "Beyond Promises: Russia-Africa Summit 2026 Faces a Crucial Investment Test" by Kester Kenn Klomegah.

Russia remains a marginal player in African infrastructure, industry, and agriculture compared with China, the European Union, and the United States.  Many announced projects have stalled, financing instruments are weak, and younger Africans see little contemporary economic impact of Russia beyond anti-Western messaging.

At the Russia-Africa Summit in October, Moscow needs to deliver on existing pledges with real capital and project execution and engage Africa's large youth and middle-class markets if it wishes to develop a sustained, mutually beneficial economic partnership with the continent.

Namibian President Makes Most of Visit to China

 The Diplomat published on 24 July 2026 a commentary titled "As the World Courts Beijing, Namibia Shows How Africa Can Sharpen Its China Strategy" by Huiyi Chen and Ovigwe Eguegu.  

Namibian President Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah made a weeklong state visit to China in early July.  She arrived with a clear agenda, negotiated a Namibia-relevant itinerary, and left with numerous tangible agreements.  The authors urge other African leaders to follow her example.

Iran War Drives Africa Toward Renewable Energy and China Model

 Foreign Affairs published on 27 July 2026 an article titled "Can Renewables Industrialize Africa? The Iran War Is Driving the Continent Toward Chinese-Backed Green Energy" by Mohamed Adow, director of Power Shift Africa, a climate think tank in Kenya.

The war on Iran is accelerating a determination among African countries to reduce their dependence on imported fossil fuels and to turn toward renewable power.  As a result, African countries are now leaning toward the model advanced by China, in which abundant, low-cost electricity from renewables underpins industrialization and economic growth.

In the meantime, the United States is ceding a role in Africa's clean energy transition to China and risks losing diplomatic influence on the continent.  Washington has not grasped Africa's new energy reality. 

Namibia Signs 8 Cooperation Agreements with China

 Discovery Alert posted on 11 July 2026 an article titled "Namibia's Oil, Uranium & Lithium Strategic Partnership with China 2026" by Muflih Hidayat.  

The China-Namibia strategic partnership entered a new chapter in July 2026 when Namibian President Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah made a state visit to China.  She signed 8 cooperation agreements that focus on green minerals, uranium, lithium, oil and gas, ports, technology transfer, and clean energy.

China, the US and Africa Green Minerals Strategy

 China-Africa Security Radar published on 5 July 2026 a commentary titled "China, the United States, and Africa's Green Minerals Vision" by Paa Kwesi Wolseley Prah.

In 2025, the African Union adopted a continental policy framework called Africa Green Minerals Strategy (AGMS), which aims to turn Africa's critical and green minerals endowment into sustainable, value-adding industrialization that supports a just energy transition and regional supply chain integration.  

China has the processing capacity, investment scale, implementation speed, and institutional flexibility to advance African industrialization--but its commercial incentives run directly against allowing Africa to independently climb the value chain.

The US offers somewhat more transparent financing structures, stronger governance standards, and procedural models that on paper seem to better protect African states from debt traps--but it lacks the industrial ecosystem and the genuine political will to support African manufacturing rather than African extraction for American consumption.   

The Sino-Moroccan Rapprochement

 The Torino World Affairs Institute published in 2026 a study titled "The Sino-Moroccan Rapprochement: An Analysis of Geoeconomic Convergence, Diplomatic Calibration and Media Narratives in a Changing Maghreb" by Bianca Pasquier and Imane Ezzehouany, edited by Amanda Chen and Leonardo Bruni.  

The study concludes that by deepening its engagement with China, Morocco is reengineering its agency and room for maneuver while maintaining its traditional ties with the United States and Europe.  China's economic presence in the Kingdom, albeit still limited compared to European and Gulf partners in overall investment terms, has rapidly expanded in industrial sectors critical for the green transition and the restructuring of global value chains.  

The Promise and Disappointment of China's Zero Tariff Policy for Africa

 The Daily Maverick published on 10 June 2026 an article titled "China's Zero-Tariff 'Gift' to Africa Could Be a Trojan Horse in Disguise" by William Gumede, University of Witwatersrand.  

China's new zero tariffs for African countries offer an opportunity to industrialize but it will only happen if they leverage China to build manufacturing capacity in Africa, transfer technology and skills, add value to raw materials, and secure Chinese financing for industry relevant infrastructure.  

Is Chinese Manufacturing in Morocco a Platform to Avoid US and EU Tariffs?

 The ChinaMed Project published on 12 June 2026 an analysis titled "China's Industrial Footprint in Morocco: The Case of Tanger Tech" by Imane Ezzehouany and Amanda Chen.

As Chinese manufacturers expand their presence in Morocco, concern is mounting in Europe and the United States that the Kingdom may become an "industrial platform" for China to circumvent US and EU trade restrictions.

Tanger Tech City is an emerging Chinese platform for green manufacturing driven by a convergence of interests between China and Morocco.  

China's Zero Tariff Policy Does Not Guarantee Access for African Exports

 The UK's Institute of Development Studies published on 10 June 2026 a study titled "From Market Access to Strategic Openness: The New China-Africa Business Relationship" by Jing Gu.

China's new zero tariff policy for Africa opens doors for increased exports to China but does not automatically increase them.  The real constraints are upstream standards compliance, rules of origin, certification, logistics, cold chains, customs systems, trade finance, and company-level capacity.  

China Forces Europe to Reconsider Industrialization in Africa

 Semafor published on 25 May 2026 an article titled "How China Forced Europe to Reconsider Africa's Industrialization" by W. Gyude Moore.

Chinese dominance in a number of industrial sectors is forcing Europe to worry that it may face deindustrialization and to rethink the need to support industrialization in Africa.

South Africa and China Expand Cooperation in Artificial Intelligence Education

 Devdiscourse, a media platform for development stakeholders, posted on 13 May 2026 an article titled "SA and China Deepen Partnership in AI Education, Technical Skills and Student Mobility."

South Africa and China have agreed to expand significantly cooperation in digital education, artificial intelligence (AI), vocational training, and student mobility following discussions in Hangzhou.  This is part of a broader effort to align education systems with industrial transformation, technological innovation, and future workforce demands.

China Adds Another Cooperative Program with Africa

 Addis Ababa's Capital newspaper published on 26 April 2026 an article titled "Addis Ababa Hosts Inaugural China-Africa Entrepreneurs Summit, with AU Calling for Youth-led Growth" by Groum Abate.

The African Union in Addis Ababa hosted the inaugural China-Africa Entrepreneurs Summit focused on trade, investment, industrial cooperation, and entrepreneurship.  Remarks by Ethiopia's president and the AU Commission Chairperson underscored the importance of yet another formal link between China and Africa.  

World Bank Assessment of Sub-Saharan Africa's Growth Prospects

 The World Bank Group published in April 2026 "Africa Economic Update: Making Industrial Policy Work in Africa."

The World Bank projects that growth in Sub-Saharan Africa for 2026 will average 4.1 percent, the same as in 2025.  Downside risks, however, are emerging due in large part to disruptions caused by the war in Iran.  They include rising fuel, food, and fertilizer prices together with tighter financial conditions that are likely to push inflation higher, disrupt economic activity, and disproportionately affect the most vulnerable households which spend a larger share of their income on food and energy.

Africa, China, and Taking Advantage of the New Supply Chain Order

 B & FT Online posted on 16 April 2026 a commentary titled "From Participation to Positioning: Africa in the New Global Supply Chain Order" by Paul Frimpong.  

Africa is part of global supply chains, but its participation remains largely shallow, concentrated in low-value segments, and weakly embedded in broader production ecosystems.  China plays a central role in the current reconfiguration of global supply chains.

Africa risks becoming a site of production without becoming a center of value creation.  If Africa is to move beyond its current role, it must start with value chain targeting.  Industrial policy must be more coordinated and strategic.  Africa needs to become a single integrated market.

How African Countries Can Maximize China's Zero Tariff Policy

 Africa Business published on 13 April 2026 an article titled "China-Africa: The Removal of Tariffs Is Not Just a Trade Opportunity, but a Strategic Test for the Continent" by Cheikh Mbacke Sene.  

Commenting on China's new zero tariff policy for African states, the author suggests three scenarios as to how it may impact the trade relationship.  But to fully benefit from Beijing's policy, African states must invest in industrial transformation, improve their infrastructure, enhance production capacity, comply strictly with international standards, and identify market opportunities that anticipate Chinese demand.