Chinese Finance and Critical Mineral Access in Africa

 Boston University's Global Development Policy Center published in June 2026 a paper titled "Development Quid Pro Quo: Chinese Finance and Critical Mineral Access in Africa" by Congyi Dai.

The paper explores whether China's development finance agenda is motivated by its global quest for natural resources, facilitating mine acquisitions in Africa.  It uses four data sources to examine whether Chinese development finance is tied to the pursuit of critical minerals.

The paper concludes that minerals needed for clean energy technologies such as copper, cobalt, nickel, and platinum group metals are associated with Chinese loan commitments to recipient countries.  Specifically, uranium is the mineral most strongly linked to Chinese development projects, particularly those including a substantial grant component and highly concessional repayment terms.

World Bank Assessment of Sub-Saharan Africa's Growth Prospects

 The World Bank Group published in April 2026 "Africa Economic Update: Making Industrial Policy Work in Africa."

The World Bank projects that growth in Sub-Saharan Africa for 2026 will average 4.1 percent, the same as in 2025.  Downside risks, however, are emerging due in large part to disruptions caused by the war in Iran.  They include rising fuel, food, and fertilizer prices together with tighter financial conditions that are likely to push inflation higher, disrupt economic activity, and disproportionately affect the most vulnerable households which spend a larger share of their income on food and energy.

African Country Military Strength Ranking

 Global Firepower has released its "2026 Military Strength Ranking" that evaluates 145 countries based on 60 factors in the categories of manpower, military equipment, finances, logistics, natural resources, and geography.  The ranking included 38 of the 54 countries in Africa.

The ten highest ranked African countries were Egypt (19), Algeria (27). Nigeria (33), South Africa (40), Ethiopia (47), Morocco (56), Angola (59), DRC (64), Sudan (66), and Tunisia (79).

Can American Billionaire Secure DRC Critical Minerals for US in Competition with China?

 Billionaires Africa posted on 4 March 2026 an article titled "Oskar Lewnowski: The Man Betting $9 Billion on Congo's Cobalt to Break China's Grip on America's Mineral Future" by Mfonobong Nsehe.

Orion Critical Minerals Consortium (CMC), founded by American financier Oskar Lewnowski, and Glencore announced in February 2026 that they had entered a non-binding memorandum of understanding for Orion CMC to acquire a 40 percent stake in Glencore's DRC assets, Mutanda Mining and Kamoto Copper Company, at a combined enterprise value of about $9 billion.  

Lewnowski is pursuing a financial deal that is a direct counter to Beijing's decade-long strategy of locking up critical mineral supply chains before Western governments understood what was at stake.  This potential investment would help ensure a reliable source of critical minerals for the United States and its partners.  The deal remains subject to due diligence and regulatory approvals.  

Artificial Intelligence in Africa and Cooperation with China and US

 Nanyang Technological University posted on 24 February 2026 an article titled "The State of Artificial Intelligence (AI) in Africa" by Amit Jain.

This is a nice summary of the current state of artificial intelligence in Africa, the sectors that are most likely to benefit in the coming years, and the countries that are best positioned to take advantage of it. 

The Georgetown Journal of International Affairs published on 7 February 2026 an article titled "The United States, China, and AI Competition in Africa: Lessons for the Global South" by Alice Chen and Neel U. Sukhalme.  

This article (also posted below on 11 February) is a useful addition to this topic, which is fast becoming important to Africa's development.  

Indian Ocean: Economic and Strategic Corridors

 The Emirates Policy Center posted on 27 February 2026 an analysis titled "The Economics of Deterrence: How Corridors and Alliances Are Reshaping Geopolitics" by Ebtesam AlKetbi.  

The India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) and China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) are frameworks for redistributing centers of gravity and influence, diversifying states' strategic options, and embedding long-term investment commitments.

The world is shifting from rigid alignments to flexible alliances that integrate economy and technology with digital and maritime security.  Power is no longer defined solely by territorial control but by the management of flows--trade, energy, data, and capital.  A state that positions itself as a central node within these networks gains strategic weight.

In the Indian Ocean region, both the Indian-led IMEC and the better known and more expansive Chinese BRI are efforts to achieve these objectives.

Africa's Debt Repayment to China Now Exceeds New Loans

 One Data published on 27 January 2026 an article titled "One Data and Rockefeller Foundation to Launch New Development Finance Observatory in 2026."

China went from being a net provider of finance--transferring $48 billion to low- and lower-middle-income countries (via official and private lenders) a decade ago--to a net extractor of $24 billion.  Africa has experienced the most dramatic reversal in Chinese finance.  It went from receiving $30 billion to paying out $22 billion, a $52 billion swing.  

Departure of Ethiopia's Bank Governor

 Ethiopia Insight published on 23 September 2025 a commentary titled "Ethiopia's Central Bank Shake-Up: The Governor's Exit and What It Means" by Abrar Fitwi, Saint Mary's College in Indiana.

The departure of Ethiopia's central bank governor, Mamo Mihretu, highlights the unsettled nature of Ethiopia's economic adjustment efforts.  

Chinese Loans to Africa Increase Modestly in 2023

 Boston University's Global Development Policy Center posted on 21 August 2024 an analysis titled "Relative Risk and the Rate of Return: Chinese Loans to Africa Database, 2000-2023."

China's total loans to Africa peaked in 2016 at $28 billion, fell to $1 billion annually in 2021 and 2022 before rising to almost $5 billion in 2023.  China's top five loan recipients between 2000 and 2023 were Angola, Ethiopia, Egypt, Nigeria, and Kenya.  In 2023, China changed its approach to loans by providing half the total to African multilateral banks and nationally owned banks in Egypt.  It continued to prioritize its longtime borrowers: Angola, Egypt, and Nigeria.   

Climate Change and Conflict in the Horn of Africa

 The Heritage Institute published in September 2023 conference proceedings titled "Climate Change and Conflict in the Horn: Challenges, Responses and New Mandates."

No challenge is more daunting in the Horn of Africa than climate change.  This document brings together 15 papers that aid in the understanding of climate change and the impact it has on livelihoods, conflicts, and understanding the way forward in the Somali context.  

Chinese Environmental, Social, and Governance Practices in Africa

 The South African Institute of International Affairs published in August 2023 a study titled "Elevating ESG: Empirical Lessons on Environmental, Social and Governance Implementation of Chinese Projects in Africa" by Cecilia Springer, Keyi Tang, Christoph Nedopil, Chris Alden, and Cobus van Staden.  

The study assesses the environmental, social, and governance (ESG) practices of Chinese financed infrastructure projects in Egypt, Nigeria, and Ethiopia within the context of the United Nations 2030 Sustainable Development Goals.  It concludes that Chinese financiers and regulators should take steps to guarantee awareness of and compliance with ESG rules by small- and medium-sized Chinese companies operating in Africa.  

Islamic State Militant Killed in Somalia Had Links Across Africa

 The Washington Post published on 3 February 2023 an article titled "Killing of Top ISIS Militant Casts Spotlight on Group's Broad Reach in Africa" by Katharine Houreld.  

U.S. Special Forces killed Bilal al-Sudani, a Sudanese militant, during a raid in the Puntland region of Somalia on 25 January.  Sudani was the most senior Islamic State commander in the country.  The Islamic State unit in Puntland operated as a bridge between Central Africa, Mozambique, and the Middle East and was a source of financing for ISIS activity.

Key Takeaways from Last Forum on China-Africa Cooperation

 Panda Paw Dragon Claw posted on 6 December 2021 an analysis titled "China and Africa's Post-COVID Partnership: Key Takeaways from FOCAC8" by Ma Tianje and Tox Baxter.  

This looks at the recently completed FOCAC conference in Senegal and suggests new trends in the relationship, for example a move away from Chinese financing of huge infrastructure projects in Africa and support for combatting COVID-19 and climate change.  

Control of Economic Resources in Ethiopia

 Ethiopia Insight published on 22 September 2021 a commentary titled "Playing for Keeps: The Struggle for Political Finance in Ethiopia's Transition" by Guido Lanfranchi and Jos Meester, both researchers at Clingendael's Horn of Africa program.

The commentary analyzes the struggle for control in Oromia and Tigray Region over key economic resources used to finance political activity: state or party-owned businesses and independent regional budgets.  

North Korea Busts Sanctions in Africa

 Just Security posted on 1 September 2020 an article titled "Shoring Up Sanctions Enforcement in Sub-Saharan Africa: A North Korea Case Study" by Megha Swamy.

This is one of the rare pieces written on North Korean activity in Africa.  Despite hundreds of sanctions against North Korea, it has found an easy way to get around financial sanctions by operating through banks in Africa.  The author identifies banks in Cameroon and the DRC that allowed North Korean operatives to open accounts and then access U.S. dollars and Euros through correspondent banks in Europe.  

Rebuilding Somalia

The International Monetary Fund's March 2020 issue of Finance and Development containains an interview titled "Rebuilding Somalia" with Somali Finance Minister Abdirahman Dualeh Beileh, who has three degrees from the University of Wisconsin. He provides an optimistic view of Somalia's future.

Financing Infrastructure in Africa: China and the US

The Baker McKenzie law firm posted on 3 December 2018 a report titled "A Changing World: New Trends in Emerging Market Infrastructure Finance."

The report contains a section on sub-Saharan Africa. The top five policy lenders for infrastructure projects from 2008 to 2017 were China Exim Bank, International Finance Corporation, China Development Bank, KfW (German government-owned development bank), and the African Development Bank.

New Book on China-Africa

Oxford University Press will publish in May 2019 a book titled "China-Africa and an Economic Transformation" edited by Arkebe Oquabay, Minister and Coordinator of Economic Sectors and Senior Adviser to the Ethiopian Prime Minister, and Justin Yifu Lin, Dean, Institute of New Structural Economics, Peking University. The book includes my chapter on China-Africa Ties in Historical Context.

The chapters include:

--Introduction to China-Africa and an Economic Transformation by Justin Yifu Lin and Arkebe Oquabay.
--China's Economic Emergence and Implications for Africa by Linda Yueh.
--The Meanings and Global Externalities of China's Economic Emergence by Celestin Monga.
--China-Africa Ties in Historical Context by David H. Shinn.
--Evolving Debates and Outlooks on China-Africa Economic Ties by Chris Alden.
--The Institutional Framework of Sino-African Relations by Ian Taylor.
--Chinese Loans and African Structural Transformation by Deborah Brautigam.
--China's Development Finance and African Infrastructure Development by Richard Carey and Jing Gu.
--The Changing Dynamics of Chinese Oil and Gas Engagements in Africa by Cyril Obi.
--The Political Economy of China's Investment in Nigeria: Prometheus or Leviathan? by Omolade Adunbi and Howard Stein.
--Agreements and Dispute Settlement in China-Africa Economic Ties by Won L. Kidane.
--Labour Regimes and Workplace Encounters between China and Africa by Carlos Oya.
--China's Light Manufacturing and Africa's Industrialization by Justin Yifu Lin and Jiajun Xu.
--Catalyzing China-Africa Ties for Africa's Structural Transformation: Lessons from Ethiopia by Fantu Cheru and Arkebe Oqubay.
--The Future of China-Africa Economic Ties: New Trajectory and Possibilities by Justin Yifu Lin and Arkebe Oqubay.

Catalyzing Investment in Africa

The World Bank and China Development Bank recently released a major study titled "Leapfrogging: The Key to Africa's Development? From Constraints to Investment Opportunities." It explores ways to catalyze a new generation of investment opportunities in Africa that leverage the ability of many countries to leapfrog into the future.

The World Bank and China Development Bank inaugurated the report at the Third Investing in Africa Forum hosted by the government of Senegal in Dakar on 25-27 September, 2017.

Chinese Railway Construction in East Africa

Brookings published on 6 July 2017 an article titled "China and the East Africa Railways: Beyond Full Industry Chain Export" by Yun Sun.

The author analyzes the construction of two standard gauge railroads--one from Mombasa to Nairobi in Kenya and the other from Djibouti to Addis Ababa--by Chinese construction companies and largely financed by loans from the Export-Import Bank of China.