Chinese Finance and Critical Mineral Access in Africa

 Boston University's Global Development Policy Center published in June 2026 a paper titled "Development Quid Pro Quo: Chinese Finance and Critical Mineral Access in Africa" by Congyi Dai.

The paper explores whether China's development finance agenda is motivated by its global quest for natural resources, facilitating mine acquisitions in Africa.  It uses four data sources to examine whether Chinese development finance is tied to the pursuit of critical minerals.

The paper concludes that minerals needed for clean energy technologies such as copper, cobalt, nickel, and platinum group metals are associated with Chinese loan commitments to recipient countries.  Specifically, uranium is the mineral most strongly linked to Chinese development projects, particularly those including a substantial grant component and highly concessional repayment terms.

How Russia Lures Africans to Fight in Ukraine

 The New York Times published on 4 May 2026 an article titled "'The Death Zone': How Russia Is Luring Africans to Ukraine" by Matthew Mpoke Bigg, John Eligon, and Zimasa Matiwane.

An estimated 1,000 Kenyans went to Russia and ended up in the war against Ukraine.  Only 30 have returned to Kenya alive.  In addition, South Africa, Tanzania, Zambia, Nigeria, Ghana, Togo, Botswana, Mali, and Cameroon have reported men being falsely recruited into the Russian army.  

Africa and the 2026 World Happiness Report

 Gallup just released its "World Happiness Report 2026" that assesses 147 countries from 2023 through 2025.  The 2026 edition highlights the role social media plays in social connection, trust, and shared experiences worldwide.

The happiest African countries based on the social media focus were Mauritius (73), Libya (81), Algeria (83), Mozambique (93), and Gabon (96).  The least happy African countries were DRC (140), Botswana (143), Zimbabwe (144), Malawi (145), and Sierra Leone (146).

Comment:  There are surprises, at least for me, at both ends of the scale.  The focus on social media probably accounts for them

The Plusses and Minuses of China's Investment and Trade in Africa

 The Conversation published on 10 March 2026 a commentary titled "China in Africa: Investment and Trade Work Well When There's Strong Oversight, and Badly When There Isn't" by Vincent Tawiah, Dublin City University.

The author concludes that Chinese investment, loans, and trade in Africa offer substantial economic opportunity, but they can also lead to the rapid depletion of vital energy and forestry resources, undermining long-term development goals if institutional guardrails are weak.

Africa's Critical Minerals: Is China or the United States the Better Partner?

 The Diplomat published on 5 February 2026 an analysis titled "China and the US Want Africa's Critical Minerals, Will African Countries Actually Benefit?" by Juliet Onyino and Weilu Jiang, both at Development Reimagined.

The authors concluded that neither the American nor the Chinese critical mineral strategies fully advance Agenda 2063's vision of African-led structural transformation.  In both cases, Africa's development objectives remain secondary unless effectively enforced through negotiation and policy coordination. 

Russia Lures/Recruits Africans to Fight against Ukraine

 The Washington Post published on 2 February 2026 an article titled "Kenyan Job Seekers Were Lured to Russia, Then Sent to Die in Ukraine" by Rael Ombuor and Katharine Houreld.  

The story is based on interviews with four Kenyans who fought for Russia in Ukraine and family members of nine other Kenyan recruits. Ukraine sources have identified 1,436 nationals from 36 African countries fighting for Russia.  Some of the Africans were recruited to fight on the side of Russia while others were lured to Russia for civilian employment and forced to fight for Russia.  

Africa and World Happiness Report

 The Wellbeing Research Centre at the University of Oxford published the World Happiness Report 2025.  The focus of this year's report is the impact of caring and sharing on people's happiness.  It includes factors such as giving money to charity, volunteering, and helping strangers.  It tries to measure the degree of benevolence in each of the 147 countries that it evaluates.  

The five highest ranked African countries are Mauritius (78), Libya (79), Algeria (84), South Africa (95), and Mozambique (96). Seven of the ten lowest ranked countries are in Africa: Lesotho (138), Comoros (139), DRC (141), Botswana (142), Zimbabwe (143), Malawi (144), and Sierra Leone (146).

China Turns to Africa for Copper Supplies

 The South China Morning Post published on 2 July 2025 an article titled "Move to Shore Up Supply of Copper from African Mines" by Jevans Nyabiage.

China is positioning itself to secure more copper from the Democratic Republic of Congo, Zambia, and Botswana in an effort to dominate the transition to green energy.  

Chinese Managers and Botswana Workers

 The Melbourne Asia Review published on 2 June 2025 an article titled "Chinese Employers in Botswana and Their Impact on Local Workers" by Liang Chen.

An estimated 15,000 Chinese work and live in Botswana.  This article is based on interviews with 34 Chinese shopkeepers/managers and 19 Batswana employees.  There is considerable tension in the workplace because Chinese shopkeepers prefer to hire workers from Zambia and Zimbabwe rather than those from Botswana who are seen as inefficient.  For their part, Batswana see the Chinese shopkeepers/managers as excessively strict.  

Africa and World Happiness Report 2024

 The massive World Happiness Report 2024 is now available online, published in partnership with Gallup, the Oxford Wellbeing Research Centre, The UN Sustainable Development Solutions Network, and the World Happiness Report's editorial board.  The six key variables in the study are GDP per capita, social support, healthy life expectancy, freedom, generosity, and corruption.  

The overall global happiness 2021-2023 scores are based on individuals' own assessments of their lives, in particular their answers to the Cantril ladder life-evaluation question in the Gallup World Poll. They are not based on any index of the six key variables in the study.  See pages 14-17 of the report. 

Out of 143 countries in the study, the five highest ranked African countries are war-torn Libya (66)!!, Mauritius (70), South Africa (83), Algeria (85), and Congo Brazzaville (89).  The five lowest ranked African countries are Lesotho (141), Sierra Leone (140), Congo Kinshasa (139), Zimbabwe (138), and Botswana (137).  For purposes of comparison, the United States ranked 23 and China 60.

Donkey Skins Are Controversial Issue in China-Africa Trade

 The New York Times published on 23 February 2024 an article titled "Africa's Donkeys Are Coveted by China.  Can the Continent Protect Them?" by Elian Peltier, Keith Bradsher, and Siyi Zhao.

Chinese companies have been slaughtering millions of donkeys across Africa, coveting gelatin from the animals' hides that is processed into traditional medicines, sweets, and beauty products.  The demand is decimating Africa's donkey population, causing the African Union to adopt a continentwide ban on donkey skin exports.  Donkeys are an important source of transport in many African countries.  

Both US and China Lose Influence in Africa

 Afrobarometer has just published changes in perceived influence of the United States and China in 27 African countries from 2019 until 2022.  

The US experienced an average decline of 11 percent in the 27 countries while China had an average decline of 10 percent.  (Click charts to enlarge.)

The US posted a positive influence percentage only in Sierra Leone and Mauritius while China had positive numbers in Cameroon, Sierra Leone, Angola, Liberia, and Namibia.  Both the United States and China experienced the sharpest drop in Morocco and Botswana.  

Africa and the Human Freedom Index

The US-based CATO Institute and Canada-based Fraser Institute just published the "Human Freedom Index 2022: A Global Measurement of Personal, Civil, and Economic Freedom" by Ian Vasquez, Fred McMahon, Ryan Murphy, and Guillermina Sutter Schneider.   

The Human Freedom Index uses 83 indicators of personal and economic freedom in the following areas: 

--Rule of law

--Security and safety

--Movement

--Religion

--Association, assembly and civil society

--Expression and information

--Relationships

--Size of government

--Legal system and property rights

--Sound money

--Freedom to trade internationally

--Regulation

The Index looked at 165 geographical jurisdictions using data for 2020, the most recent year for which sufficient data are available.  Human freedom deteriorated severely in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic.  

The five African countries with the best Human Freedom Index were Cape Verde (29), Seychelles (44). Mauritius (50), Namibia (58), and Botswana (61). 

The five African countries with the worst Human Freedom Index were Egypt (161), Sudan (160), Somalia (158), Burundi (156), and Libya (155).  

China-Africa Donkey Trade

 The South African Institute of International Affairs published in January 2023 a study titled "China, Africa and the Market for Donkeys: Keeping the Cart Behind the Donkey" by Lauren Johnston.  

China's demand for donkey hides, which are used to make an ancient health-related product, has led to a shortage of donkeys in China and sky-rocketing demand for Africa's donkeys.  This has resulted in the emergence of illicit and even more inhumane and unhygienic cross-border and regional donkey trade.  The paper offers policy suggestions that may help to create a donkey market that supports inclusive high quality, mutual objectives.   

South Africa Defends Naval Exercise with Russia and China

 Reuters published on 23 January 2023 an article titled "South Africa Defends Planned Military Drills with Russia and China" by Carien Duplessis.

South Africa plans to host a trilateral naval exercise off its coast in February with ships from Russia and China.  Responding to criticism and with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov by her side, South African Foreign Minister Naledi Pandor stated: "All countries conduct military exercises with friends worldwide.  It's the natural course of relations."

China Not Mentioned at US-Africa Leaders Summit, But Is Unspoken Part of Agenda

 The New York Times published on 14 December 2022 an article titled "The U.S. Wants to Counter China's Moves in Africa.  But American Officials Say Not to Mention That" by Edward Wong.  

By design, China is the unstated topic at the US-Africa Leaders Summit, but most of the media coverage of the event brings up the topic anyway.  

Comment:  It is hard to ignore China's role in Africa even when the topic of the day is US-Africa relations, but the US-China competition component is being blown way out of proportion of its true importance.  

Chinese Military Engagement in Africa since 1950

 The Strategic Studies Institute of the US Army War College Press published in July 2022 an edited volume titled Enabling a More Externally Focused and Operational PLA that contains a chapter titled "'Only with Deep Roots Can a Tree Yield Rich Fruit': The People's Liberation Army in Africa" by Paul Nantulya.

The author explores the origins of the PLA's involvement in Africa in support of African liberation movements.  He looks at the tactics and tools of engagement, the thinking behind them, and case studies in Kenya, Tanzania, Botswana, Algeria, and Egypt.

Africa's Reaction to Russia's Invasion of Ukraine: Glass Half Full

 Most of the commentary on Africa's reaction to Russia's invasion of Ukraine has taken a glass half empty approach.  See, for example, the Council on Foreign Relations blog post titled "Russia's Invasion of Ukraine May Drive a Wedge Between the West and Africa" by Ebenezer Obadare.  And there have been some truly disappointing responses by African countries that either abstained or sat out UN General Assembly votes on 2 March and 24 March that condemned Russia for its actions in Ukraine.  Eritrea was the only country in Africa to embarrass itself and vote against both resolutions alongside Russia.  But South Africa, Uganda, and Tanzania abstained on both of them.  Ethiopia failed to vote on the first resolution and abstained on the second.  Morocco failed to vote on either resolution.  Botswana and Somalia supported the first resolution but failed to vote on the second one.  It would be interesting to know what role, if any, China played in influencing abstentions on these resolutions.

The fact remains that approximately half of the African countries supported both resolutions condemning Russia.  This included heavy weights such as Cote d'Ivoire, Egypt, Ghana, Kenya, Nigeria, and Zambia.  This must have been an especially difficult decision for a country like Egypt that gets much of its military equipment and wheat from Russia.  While you can make the glass half empty case, I tend to see African votes on these resolutions as a glass half full.   

UN Overwhelmingly Condemns Russia for Humanitarian Catastrophe in Ukraine; Africans Divided

The New York Times published on 24 March 2022 an article titled "The U.N. General Assembly Adopts a Strong Resolution Blaming Russia for Ukraine's Humanitarian Crisis" by Farnaz Fassihi.

The UN General Assembly resolution blamed Russia for creating one of the worst humanitarian crises in Europe in decades and demanded that Russia abide by humanitarian laws, including the protection of civilians and infrastructure, safe passage for humanitarian aid and an end to the war.

The vote was 140 in favor, 38 abstentions (19 of the abstentions were African countries and another 7 African states did not vote) and 5 opposed (Russia, Syria, North Korea, Belarus, and Eritrea).  Half of the countries in Africa abstained, did not vote, or in the case of Eritrea voted with Russia.  

UN Multimedia published a readout of each country's vote.

Comment:  Most of the African countries that abstained or failed to vote were not surprises, but some were surprising.  Botswana, Ethiopia, Namibia, South Africa, Uganda, and Tanzania abstained while Eswatini, Morocco, and Somalia failed to vote.  It was no surprise that Eritrea distinguished itself as solidifying its position as Putin's most loyal African puppet.   

Arms Transfers to Africa 2017-2021

 The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) published in March 2022 a study titled "Trends in International Arms Transfers, 2021" by Pieter D. Wezeman, Alexandra Kuimova and Siemon T. Wezeman.  

Between 2012-16 and 2017-21 imports of major arms by African states (SIPRI includes Egypt in the Middle East) decreased by 34 percent.  Russia was the largest supplier to Africa in 2017-21, accounting for 44 percent of imports of major arms to the region, followed by the US (17 percent), China (10 percent), and France (6 percent).

In 2017-21, Algeria accounted for 44 percent of total African arms imports, although they decreased by 37 percent between 2012-16 and 2017-21.  Arms imports by Morocco fell by 27 percent in the same period.  Egypt was the third largest arms importer in the world in 2017-21, accounting for almost 6 percent of the global total and were 73 percent higher than in 2012-16.  In 2017-21, Russia accounted for 41 percent of Egyptian arms imports.  The US was only the fifth largest supplier in that period.  

States in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) accounted for only 2 percent of total global imports of major arms in 2017-21.  Their arms imports were 35 percent lower in 2017-21 than in 2012-16.  In 2017-21, the five largest arms importers in SSA were Angola, Nigeria, Ethiopia, Mali, and Botswana.  

Nigeria received major arms from 13 suppliers in 2017-21.  Deliveries included 272 armored vehicles from China and 7 combat helicopters from Russia.  

Ethiopia received air defense equipment from Russia and Ukraine during the first three years of the period 2017-21.  While no transfers of major arms to war-torn Ethiopia from these two states were identified for 2020-21, several deliveries by other suppliers are known to have taken place, including multiple rocket launchers from China and unmanned aerial vehicles from Turkey and an unidentified supplier.

The largest arms supplier to Mali in 2017-21 was Russia, which delivered 4 armed transport helicopters and 4 combat helicopters.