Turning the US Refugee Program on Its Head

The Washington Post published on 21 September 2026 an exclusive analysis titled "How Trump Turned a Refugee Bureau into a $410 Million Deportation Operation" by David Nakamura and Adam Taylor. 

The State Department's new Office of Remigration reverses a long-standing policy of resettling refugees in the United States to a focus on expelling them.  The State Department implements the policy by bribing governments in Africa and Latin America to accept the deportees.  

The United States has suspended accepting almost all refugees except for White South Africans.  So far, the Trump administration has deported under this program more than 25,000 people, most of them to Mexico and the others to Africa and Latin America.  This is a tiny percentage of the 985,000 deportations conducted by the Department of Homeland Security during Trump's second term.  

China and US Compete for South Africa's Platinum

 Semafor published on 21 September 2026 an article titled "South Africa Woos US and China with Platinum" by Alexis Akwagyiram, Tiisetso Motsoeneng, and Sam Mkokeli.

South Africa is the world's leading supplier of platinum and seeking to gain influence with both China and the United States.  The US needs it for catalytic converters and defense equipment while China needs it to develop green hydrogen as a form of sustainable energy.

At the political level, the Trump administration continues to alienate South Africa, while China is cultivating the South African government.  Washington's criticism of South Africa shows no signs of abating, which risks losing more ground to Beijing in the race to secure access to Pretoria's critical minerals.

China Converts Economic Influence in Africa to Strategic Influence

 Modern Diplomacy published on 14 September 2026 a commentary titled "Is China Turning Economic Influence in Africa into Strategic Power?" by Nadia Helmy.

The author argues that China is leveraging its membership in BRICS and its direct investment in Africa as tools to build economic influence that gradually translate into sustainable political, security, and strategic influence.  

China-Africa Trade Developments

 The Rhodium Group published on 14 September 2026 an analysis titled "Monitoring China-Africa Trade Spillovers" by Jeremy Smith.

The analysis focuses on the impact of changes in China's economy on trade with South Africa, Angola, and the DRC.  China's slowing growth and worsening trade imbalances are rapidly reshaping its economic relationship with Africa.  China's export surge to Africa lowers the cost of goods for consumers but makes domestic industrialization harder.  Africa should no longer expect the rising tide of Chinese demand to lift all boats for commodity exporters.

Chinese Bank Invested in South Africa's Standard Bank to Raise $15 Billion

 Business Insider Africa published on 7 September 2026 an article titled "China Lines Up $15 Billion Capital Boost for Biggest Shareholder in Africa's Largest Bank" by Ayodeji Adegboyega.

The Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) plans to raise as much as $15 billion.  ICBC holds about 20 percent of the shares of South Africa's Standard Bank, which operates in 20 African countries.  The new ICBC capital is intended for its balance sheet and has not been earmarked for Standard Bank or African projects.

Financing Terrorist Organizations in Somalia

 The Africa Center for Strategic Studies published on 6 August 2026 an analysis titled "Countering Terrorism Financing in East Africa" by Daisy Muibu and Nicole Mazurova.

Al-Shabaab in Somalia has established a sophisticated revenue-generation capacity that includes criminal activities, illicit trade, smuggling, and money laundering.  Al-Shahaab obtains annual revenue of up to $200 million annually.  The Islamic State in Somalia generates between $100,000 and $360,000 monthly through extortion and illicit taxation.  

Defeating these terrorist organizations will require degrading their revenue generation capacities through strengthened national and regional coordination.  

Washington Post Editorial on US-China AI Competition in Africa

 The Washington Post published on 27 August 2026 an editorial titled "How the U.S. Can Beat China in Africa's AI Race."

Software developers across Africa are adapting Chinese models to build applications tailored for African users.  But China has no monopoly on AI projects in Africa.  In compute, the US has far more to offer than China.  The US needs to revive its Power Africa initiative, which came to an end when the Trump administration dismantled USAID, in order to support African data centers.  

China Enhances Broadcasting Exchanges with South Africa

 Broadcast Media Africa posted on 25 August 2026 an article titled "South Africa: SABC and JSBC Forge Partnership to Enhance Cultural Exchange and Broadcasting Cooperation."

The South African Broadcasting Corporation (SABC) has signed a memorandum of understanding with Chinese media organization Jiangsu Broadcasting Corporation (JSBC).  The SABC will broadcast China Hour, a dedicated program designed to give South African audiences greater exposure to Chinese stories, culture, and people.  The goal is to strengthen people-to-people connections between South Africa and China.    

China Orders Its Citizens Out of Eswatini

 The BBC posted on 26 August 2026 an article titled "China Advises Its Citizens to Leave Taiwan Ally Eswatini Over 'Security Risks'" by Basillioh Rukanga.

China's Foreign Ministry told its citizens to leave Eswatini, the only country in Africa that recognizes Taiwan, citing "rampant cyber fraud and criminal activities associated with gambling."  Eswatini had earlier arrested 40 Chinese nationals during raids on alleged illegal online gambling centers.  

Cote d'Ivoire Expands Military Cooperation with China

 Defence Web published on 18 August 2026 an article titled "Cote d'Ivoire Boosts Military Capabilities with New Chinese Patrol Vessels and Drones" by Armand Liebenberg.

Cote d'Ivoire recently took possession of two Chinese donated Predator-class coastal patrol vessels and purchased at least two advanced Chinese-made Wing Loong II drones.  China earlier supplied Cote d'Ivoire with 9 assault vehicles and 27 armored personnel carriers.  

Business Insider Africa published on 11 August 2026 an article titled "China Delivers Its Famous Wing Loong II Combat Drones to Another African Country in Growing Challenge to America's MQ-9 Reaper" by Olamilekan Okebiorun.

Nigeria, Morocco, and Algeria previously received China's Wing Loong II combat drones.  It is a lower cost alternative to the US-produced MQ-1 Predator and the MQ-9 Reaper drones.  

Chinese Fishing Fleet Charged with Illegal Activity in West African Waters

Modern Ghana published on 14 August 2026 an article titled "Illegal Chinese Fishing: Africa Must Stop Taking the Bait" by Mustapha Bature Sallama. 

China's refusal to sign the Mombasa Declaration is an admission that its deep-sea fishing fleet is engaged in illegal practices.  China is gradually expanding its footprint in African waters, at the risk of permanently endangering the economic sovereignty of coastal states.  

African Solar Manufacturing May Not Compete with Chinese Imports

 The Associated Press published on 8 August 2026 an article titled "Africa Wants More Homegrown Solar to Boost Self-Reliance, but China's Shadow Remains" by Allan Olingo and Chan Ho-Him.

Several African countries are building more domestic solar manufacturing capacity, but they face competition from China's dominant global role in making solar cells and other components.  Africa is a perfect market for China's overcapacity in this sector.

China and South Africa to Share Nuclear Waste Experiences

 SABC News posted on 4 August 2026 an article titled "SA Moves to Complete R2 Billion Radioactive Waste Management Facility."

South Africa's National Radioactive Waste Disposal Institute signed a memorandum of understanding with the China National Nuclear Corporation to work together and share experiences.  

Russia-South Africa Relations: It's Complicated

 The South African Institute of International Affairs recently posted a 16-minute podcast titled "South Africa and Russia: It's Complicated."

The Russia-China relationship generates uncomfortable headlines today.  It is based on the strong anti-apartheid position of the Soviet Union.  In addition, Vladimir Putin and former South African President Jacob Zuma solidified the ties.

Russia's invasion of Georgia, Crimea, and Ukraine complicated the relationship.  South Africa fell back on a policy of non-alignment.  By 2022, there was confusion in Pretoria concerning policy towards Russia.

Today, South Africa-Russia trade is negligible and Russian investment in the country is modest.  South Africa and Russia, both members of BRICS, agree on the need to revise the world order but not much else.  

Sub-Saharan Africa Little Affected by Trump's New Tariffs

 The New York Times published on 24 July 2026 an article titled "New Tariffs as Old Ones Expire: The Latest on Trump's Trade War" by Tony Romm, Edison Wu, and Lazaro Gamio.

On 24 July, the Trump administration imposed new duties on imports from more than 80 countries as previous 10 percent global duties expired.  The new tariffs range between 10 and 12.5 percent.  

All five countries in North Africa now face the 12.5 percent tariff but sub-Saharan Africa seems to benefit from the new situation as only Nigeria, Angola, and South Africa are impacted--all at the 12.5 percent rate.    

South Africa and China Deepen Artificial Intelligence Partnership

 The South African Government News Agency posted on 20 July 2026 a press release titled "South Africa, China Deepen AI and Science Partnership at Global Summit."

South Africa and China recently agreed to expand cooperation in the fields of artificial intelligence, joint research centers and laboratories, space science and astronomy, quantum computing, cybersecurity, and the Young Scientists Exchange Program.  

China-Africa Trade First Half 2026

 Thierry Pairault just posted a paper titled "The Tariff Exemption Saga and the Results for the First Half of 2026."

China's zero tariff policy for all countries in Africa except Eswatini took effect on 1 May.  During the first half of 2026 Africa's trade deficit with China widened from $44.7 billion to $57.9 billion as of the end of the first half of 2026 compared with the first half of 2025.  Chinese exports to Africa rose by 21.8 percent and imports from Africa by 16.3 percent compared with the same period in 2025.

Eight African countries (South Africa, DRC, Zambia, South Sudan, Nigeria, Chad, Algeria, and Zimbabwe) accounted for about 94 percent of the increase in Chinese imports from Africa during this period.  Almost the entire increase in the value of African exports to China was due to the shock in world commodity prices, largely independent of the zero-tariff policy.  

China Aims to Take Lead on Artificial Intelligence in Global South

 CNBC published on 17 July 2026 an article titled "Xi Pitches China as AI Partner to Developing World, Warns Against Risks and Security Overreach" by Lim Hui Jie.

China is reaching out to various blocs of nations in the Global South to build partnerships concerning AI.  The blocs include ASEAN, African Union, League of Arab States, and the BRICS.

Aljazeera published on 17 July 2026 an article titled "China's Xi Jinping Launches New AI Alliance: What Is It?"

Beijing is casting itself as a leader of the global AI order, challenging the position of the United States.  China announced last week a coalition of 29 nations called the World Artificial Intelligence Cooperation Organization (WAICO) with a headquarters in Shanghai.  Founding members include South Africa and Senegal.

In the meantime, Washington is retreating from global cyber and AI norms-setting processes and withdrawing its financial backing for cyber diplomacy more broadly.

China-South Africa Supply Chain Issues

 The Foreign Policy Research Institute published on 16 July 2026 an article titled "Beyond the Supply Chain: South Africa's China Dilemma" by Raghvendra Kumar.

The question facing South Africa is whether China's evolving supply chain diplomacy is designed to support Pretoria's fair and equitable participation or to reinforce Beijing's own geoeconomic priorities.  South Africa is China's largest trading partner in Africa, but it runs a large trade deficit with Beijing.  

The author concludes that South Africa's relationship with China will be successful only if Pretoria retains control over its critical infrastructure, strategic industries, and foreign policy choices.  

African Views of the US vis-a-vis China Fall Since Beginning of Trump Administration

 The Pew Research Center published on 15 July 2026 research results titled "People in Many Countries Now View China More Positively than the U.S." by Jonathan Schulman, Laura Silver, Laura Clancy, and William Miner.

Pew surveyed public opinion of the United States and China in 36 countries, including 4--South Africa, Kenya, Nigeria, and Ghana--in Africa.  Since the beginning of the Trump administration, positive perceptions of the United States in the 4 African countries vis-a-vis China have fallen, although the US still maintains a slight lead in Ghana. 

Positive views of the United States and China today are: 

South Africa: 35 percent for the US and 52 percent for China

Nigeria: 63 percent for the US and 78 percent for China

Kenya: 63 percent for the US and 76 percent for China

Ghana: 68 percent for the US and 64 percent for China

When asked if they are confident Donald Trump or Xi Jinping will do the right thing, the results were:

South Africa: 26 percent for Trump and 46 percent for Xi

Kenya: 63 percent for Trump and 73 percent for Xi

Ghana: 54 percent for Trump and 56 percent for Xi

Nigeria: 65 percent for Trump and 62 percent for Xi