The Pros and Cons of Diplomatic Recognition of Somaliland

 Newsweek posted on 9 September 2025 an article titled "This Aspiring Nation Wants to Be Trump's New Weapon Against China in Africa" by Tom O'Connor.  

The author examines the arguments for and against recognition of the breakaway Somaliland government, which now hosts almost a dozen liaison offices but has not been officially recognized by any country.  One theme in the argument favoring US recognition of Somaliland is that it would provide an ally for Washington in its competition with Beijing in Africa.   

Eswatini Recognizes Taipei but Beijing Constructs Dam

 The South China Morning Post published on 8 August 2025 an article titled "Beijing Strengthens Ties with eSwatini Despite Diplomatic Dispute over Taiwan" by Jevans Nyabiage.

Eswatini is the only country in Africa that recognizes Taiwan.  Yet, China's state-owned PowerChina is constructing a $146 million dam in the country.  China has a long history of economic ties with eSwatini and is playing the long political game, assuming that economic engagement will strengthen the political relationship.

China to Eliminate Tariffs on African Imports While US Increases Them

 The Voice of Africa published on 12 June 2025 an article titled "China Set to Eliminate All Tariffs on African Imports: A New Chapter in Global Trade."

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi announced on 11 June that China is prepared to grant zero-tariff treatment to 100 percent of taxable products from all 53 African countries with which it has formal relations.  Only Eswatini, which recognizes Taiwan, is excepted.  Wang contrasted China's policy with US plans to increase tariffs on African imports.

Comment:  While this could constitute an important change in the dynamics of China-Africa trade, the fact remains that China maintains a large and long-standing trade surplus with all of Africa.  On the other hand, over the last ten years the United States has had a modest trade deficit with all of Africa.  

Sharp Reductions in USAID Funding for Combatting HIV/AIDS Having an Impact in Africa

 The Pulitizer Center published on 5 June 2025 a story titled "U.S. Aid Helped Two African Countries Rein in HIV.  Then Came Trump" by Jon Cohen.  

President George W. Bush's PEPFAR program controlled the rapid spread of HIV/AIDS in countries like Eswatini and Lesotho.  Significant cuts in the PEPFAR program by the Trump administration are already interrupting this lifesaving assistance.  

China Pressures South Africa to Downgrade Taiwan Office

 The South China Morning Post published on 24 May 2025 an article titled "South Africa Downgrades Taiwan's Representative Office as It Deepens Ties with Beijing" by Jevans Nyabiage.

Under pressure from Beijing, South Africa has asked Taiwan to move its office from the political capital of Pretoria to the commercial capital of Johannesburg and downgrade it from a liaison office to a trade office.  Taipei has resisted the move so far.   

The Negative Impact of Whacking Foreign Aid

 The Washington Post published on 2 May 2025 an article titled "After 100 Days, the Toll of Trump's Foreign Aid Cuts Has Begun to Sink In" by Sammy Westfall.

The Trump administration has axed more than 80 percent of the programs funded by the U.S. Agency for International Development.  The administration is also in the process of slashing the U.S. African Development Foundation, U.S. Institute of Peace, Inter-American Foundation, and Millennium Challenge Corporation.  

The article looks at the impact of these cuts on South Sudan, Ethiopia, Jordan, Tanzania, Eswatini, Lesotho, Afghanistan, and Yemen.  

Comment:  The administration is getting close to ending government-funded soft power, which has traditionally been a major U.S. foreign policy tool.  Although they will not fill the financial void left by the United States, the governments of China and Russia will take very possible advantage of America's departure from these programs.   

Taiwan's Shrinking Footprint in Africa

 The Diplomat published on 30 October 2024 a commentary titled "Taiwan's Shrinking Footprint in Africa Amid Chinese Pressure" by Samir Bhattacharya, India's Observer Research Foundation.

Eswatini is the only country in Africa that recognizes Taiwan rather than China.  China has now pressured South Africa to demand that Taiwan move its "Taipei Liaison Office" from the political capital of Pretoria to the commercial capital of Johannesburg and rename it a trade office.  Taiwan, citing a 1997 agreement with South Africa, is objecting to the demand.  There has been no official, public comment from the US government.  

Eswatini Strengthens Economic Ties with Beijing; Retains Diplomatic Ties with Taipei

 The Diplomat published on 12 September 2024 an analysis titled "China-Africa Summit Shines a Spotlight on Eswatini, Taiwan's Lone Partner in Africa" by Shannon Tiezzi.

Eswatini is the only country in Africa that recognizes Taipei.  Recent growing economic ties between China and Eswatini have renewed speculation that the two countries might establish diplomatic relations.  This is, however, a decision in the hands of King Mswati III and there is no indication he is prepared to switch from Taipei to Beijing.  

The Taipei Times published on 12 September 2024 an article titled "Eswatini 'Quietly Warming' to China: Report" by Jonathan Chin.

This report contains similar information but quotes an Eswatini government representative who denies that the Kingdom is about to begin a dialogue for switching diplomatic recognition from Taiwan to China.

China's Last Holdout in Africa

 The American Security Project published on 12 September 2024 a commentary titled "Navigating Diplomacy Lessons from Eswatini-Taiwan Relations" by Solveig Holmedahl.

Eswatini, formerly Swaziland, is the last remaining African nation that has diplomatic ties with the Republic of China.  It is also Africa's last remaining absolute monarchy.  Eleven countries globally still recognize Taipei rather than Beijing.  

Taiwan's President to Visit Eswatini

 Focus Taiwan published on 25 August 2023 an article titled "President Tsai to Visit Eswatini in Early September."

Taiwan's President Tsai Ing-wen will visit from 5-8 September Eswatini, the only country in Africa that recognizes Taipei.  The occasion marks the 55th anniversary of Eswatini's independence.  

Eswatini Prime Minister Visits Taiwan

 The Central News Agency, Taiwan's national news service, published on 6 March 2023 an article titled "Visiting Eswatini PM Affirms Ties with Taiwan, Denounces 'Bullying'."

Eswatini's prime minister recently visited Taiwan where he met with President Tsai Ing-wen.  Referring to China's pressure on Taiwan, he said Eswatini rejects any kind of bullying.  Eswatini is the only country in Africa and one of 14 worldwide that has full diplomatic relations with Taiwan.  

Taiwan to Reopen Representative Office in Cote d'Ivoire

 The Central News Agency in Taipei published on 14 February 2023 an article titled "Taiwan Names Envoy to Ivory Coast as Office Set to Reopen" by Joseph Yeh.

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Taipei has named an envoy to head the "Taipei Representative Office in Ivory Coast." Taiwan's Ministry of Economic Affairs operated a Taiwan Economic Bureau in Cote d'Ivoire until it closed in 2017.  This constitutes the reestablishment of commercial relations between Cote d'Ivoire and Taiwan.   

Comment:  Taiwan has full diplomatic relations with only one country in Africa: Eswatini.  In 2020, it established a "Taiwan Representative Office" in the breakaway republic of Somaliland.  Taipei also has trade offices in Algeria, Egypt, Kenya, Nigeria, and both a trade and liaison office in South Africa.  Except for Eswatini, none of these offices constitutes full diplomatic relations.  

Russian Foreign Minister Meets Eritrean President

 Aljazeera published on 27 January 2023 an article titled "Russia's FM Lavrov Meets Eritrean President on Africa Tour."

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov's meeting with Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki reportedly centered on the war in Ukraine and enhancement of ties with Eritrea in the energy, mining, information technology, education, and health sectors.  Lavrov also visited South Africa, Angola, and Eswatini on this trip.  In the vote on the March 2022 UN General Assembly resolution condemning Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Eritrea was the only African country to join Russia in opposition.  

South Africa Defends Naval Exercise with Russia and China

 Reuters published on 23 January 2023 an article titled "South Africa Defends Planned Military Drills with Russia and China" by Carien Duplessis.

South Africa plans to host a trilateral naval exercise off its coast in February with ships from Russia and China.  Responding to criticism and with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov by her side, South African Foreign Minister Naledi Pandor stated: "All countries conduct military exercises with friends worldwide.  It's the natural course of relations."

Three African States Sign Statement of Concern about Human Rights in China's Xinjiang

 The government of Canada introduced on 31 October 2022 a statement titled "Joint Statement on Behalf of 50 Countries in the UN General Assembly Third Committee on the Human Rights Situation in Xinjiang, China."

The statement commented that "we are gravely concerned about the human rights situation in the People's Republic of China, especially the ongoing human rights violations of Uyghurs and other predominantly Muslim minorities in Xinjiang."

Although most of the 50 signatories were western countries, three African states (Liberia, Somalia, and eSwatini) also signed.  eSwatini is the only country in Africa that has diplomatic relations with Taiwan.  

Most African Countries Oppose Russian Annexations in Ukraine, But 19 Abstain

 The UN General Assembly overwhelmingly passed a resolution calling on the international community not to recognize any of Russia's annexation claims in the Ukraine and demanding its immediate reversal.  The vote was 143 in favor of the resolution, 5 against, and 35 abstentions.

No African country voted with Russia but the following 19 abstained:  Algeria, Burundi, Central African Republic, Congo Brazzaville, Eritrea, Eswatini, Ethiopia, Guinea, Lesotho, Mali, Mozambique, Namibia, South Africa, South Sudan, Sudan, Togo, Uganda, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe.  

Comment:  While one might expect some of these countries to abstain for special reasons or little commitment to state sovereignty and territorial integrity, how does one explain the abstention of Eswatini, Ethiopia, Namibia, South Africa, and Uganda?

UN Overwhelmingly Condemns Russia for Humanitarian Catastrophe in Ukraine; Africans Divided

The New York Times published on 24 March 2022 an article titled "The U.N. General Assembly Adopts a Strong Resolution Blaming Russia for Ukraine's Humanitarian Crisis" by Farnaz Fassihi.

The UN General Assembly resolution blamed Russia for creating one of the worst humanitarian crises in Europe in decades and demanded that Russia abide by humanitarian laws, including the protection of civilians and infrastructure, safe passage for humanitarian aid and an end to the war.

The vote was 140 in favor, 38 abstentions (19 of the abstentions were African countries and another 7 African states did not vote) and 5 opposed (Russia, Syria, North Korea, Belarus, and Eritrea).  Half of the countries in Africa abstained, did not vote, or in the case of Eritrea voted with Russia.  

UN Multimedia published a readout of each country's vote.

Comment:  Most of the African countries that abstained or failed to vote were not surprises, but some were surprising.  Botswana, Ethiopia, Namibia, South Africa, Uganda, and Tanzania abstained while Eswatini, Morocco, and Somalia failed to vote.  It was no surprise that Eritrea distinguished itself as solidifying its position as Putin's most loyal African puppet.   

Majority of African States Vote to Condemn Russia's Invasion of Ukraine

 Axios published on 2 March 2022 the vote of each UN member nation on the resolution to condemn Russia for its invasion of Ukraine.

There are 193 UN member nations.  On March 2, 141 voted in favor of condemning Russia for its invasion of Ukraine, 35 abstained, and 5 (Russia, Democratic Republic of Korea, Eritrea, Syria, and Belarus) supported Russia. 

African countries that abstained were: Algeria, Angola, Burundi, CAR, Republic of Congo, Madagascar, Mali, Mozambique, Namibia, Senegal, South Africa, South Sudan, Sudan, Uganda, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe.

African countries that failed to vote were: Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Equatorial Guinea, Eswatini, Ethiopia, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Morocco, and Togo.   

Comment:  Eritrea was the only African country to totally embarrass itself.  From my optic, surprise abstentions included Senegal, South Africa, Uganda, and Tanzania.  It was also surprising that Eswatini, Ethiopia, and Morocco failed to vote.  

China Is Waiting for Oppotunity in Eswatini

 The Diplomat published on 10 August 2021 a commentary titled "Eswatini, Taiwan's Last Partner in Africa" by Carien du Plessis.

Eswatini is the only country in Africa that still recognizes Taiwan.  Political unrest in the country seems to have stirred China's interest in encouraging it to switch recognition to Beijing.

China Squeezes Only Country in Africa that Recognizes Taiwan

The Daily Maverick published on 3 February 2020 an article titled "China Turns the Screws on Eswatini" by Carien Du Plessis. The author reports that China is threatening to "cripple" Eswatini business and economic development if it does not switch diplomatic recognition from Taiwan to China.

The Swaziland News published on 4 February 2020 the text of China's press release that sets forth Beijing's new policy towards Eswatini. Swazi passport holders who wish to visit China can now only obtain a visa from the Chinese embassy in Pretoria.

Focus Taiwan reported on 3 February 2020 Taiwan's response from the foreign ministry in a statement titled "Eswatini's Ties with Taiwan Firm Despite Pressure from China: MOFA." Taiwan expressed appreciation to Eswatini for standing up to China.