The Sino-Moroccan Rapprochement

 The Torino World Affairs Institute published in 2026 a study titled "The Sino-Moroccan Rapprochement: An Analysis of Geoeconomic Convergence, Diplomatic Calibration and Media Narratives in a Changing Maghreb" by Bianca Pasquier and Imane Ezzehouany, edited by Amanda Chen and Leonardo Bruni.  

The study concludes that by deepening its engagement with China, Morocco is reengineering its agency and room for maneuver while maintaining its traditional ties with the United States and Europe.  China's economic presence in the Kingdom, albeit still limited compared to European and Gulf partners in overall investment terms, has rapidly expanded in industrial sectors critical for the green transition and the restructuring of global value chains.  

Russia Expands Grain Exports to Africa

 Blitz published on 24 May 2026 an article titled "Africa's Growing Appetite for Russian Grain Signals a New Economic Reality" by M.A. Hossain.

Russian grain exports to Africa are expanding at an unprecedented pace because of competitive pricing and a desire by African countries to diversify sourcing.

Likely Impact of China's Zero Tariff Policy on African Imports (in French)

 GeopoWeb posted on 18 May 2026 an analysis titled "Africa, China, and Zero Tariffs: A Diplomatic Gesture Put to the Test by the Data" by Thierry Pairault.  

Effective on May 1, China began a policy of zero tariffs on imports from all African countries except Eswatini, which recognizes Taiwan.  Six African countries (South Africa, DRC, Angola, Guinea, Zambia, and Congo Brazzaville) now supply three quarters of China's imports from Africa.  Most of these imports consist of minerals, metals, and crude oil, which already enter China duty free.

A modest quantity of African agricultural products will benefit from the zero-tariff policy.  Landlocked African countries, which tend to be among the poorest, will receive little or no benefit from the zero-tariff policy because of transportation constraints.  In addition, non-tariff barriers such as sanitary standards remain in effect.  Thierry identifies several other barriers to increased African exports to China that will limit the impact of the zero-tariff policy.  He also compares the impact of EU and Chinese imports from Africa.

Thierry concludes the zero-tariff policy has less to do with rebalancing trade between China and Africa than it is an effective diplomatic tool at little cost to China but also limited in its economic impact.  

China's Zero Tariffs in Africa Likely to Have Minimal Impact (in French)

 Thierry Pairault posted a working paper on 30 March 2026 titled "Tarif zero: Bruxelles face a Pekin."

Beginning on 1 May 2026, China will implement a zero-tariff policy for African countries.  Pairault argues that in the few sectors where the zero tariff could theoretically encourage African exports of processed or manufactured goods to China, Beijing has little interest in allowing them to develop as they would compete with actively protected industries.  He then demonstrates that the import structures of the European Union and China shed light on this asymmetry.

African Country Military Strength Ranking

 Global Firepower has released its "2026 Military Strength Ranking" that evaluates 145 countries based on 60 factors in the categories of manpower, military equipment, finances, logistics, natural resources, and geography.  The ranking included 38 of the 54 countries in Africa.

The ten highest ranked African countries were Egypt (19), Algeria (27). Nigeria (33), South Africa (40), Ethiopia (47), Morocco (56), Angola (59), DRC (64), Sudan (66), and Tunisia (79).

Artificial Intelligence in Africa and Cooperation with China and US

 Nanyang Technological University posted on 24 February 2026 an article titled "The State of Artificial Intelligence (AI) in Africa" by Amit Jain.

This is a nice summary of the current state of artificial intelligence in Africa, the sectors that are most likely to benefit in the coming years, and the countries that are best positioned to take advantage of it. 

The Georgetown Journal of International Affairs published on 7 February 2026 an article titled "The United States, China, and AI Competition in Africa: Lessons for the Global South" by Alice Chen and Neel U. Sukhalme.  

This article (also posted below on 11 February) is a useful addition to this topic, which is fast becoming important to Africa's development.  

Impact on Maghreb of Sino-Morocco Rapprochement

 The ChinaMed Project published on 10 November 2025 a commentary titled "Mediterranean Anxieties over the Sino-Moroccan Rapprochement: French, Algerian, and Tunisian Media Perspectives" by Bianca Pasquier.  

The Sino-Moroccan entente has underscored China's increasingly delicate balancing act between Algeria and Morocco.  It has also triggered challenges for French policy, caused a growing sense of isolation in Algiers, and may be encouraging Tunisians to emulate Morocco's success with China.  

China Steps Up Engagement in Libya

 The Libya Tribune published on 27 August 2025 an article titled "China's New Expansion to North Africa" by Sema Kalayaloglu.

China is expanding its outreach to both the Tobruk and Tripoli administrations in Libya as the Trump administration shows little interest in the region.  China's support for rail development, solar power, and water treatment plants is evidence of this engagement.

Will US Tariffs Push African Countries Further into Arms of China?

 CNN posted on 5 August 2025 an article titled "Trump's Tariffs Are Sending African Countries into China's Hands" by Nimi Princewill.  

As the United States imposes tariffs on African countries, representatives of Nigeria and South Africa, the two largest economies in Africa, say this will only push African countries closer to China.  

New US Tariffs on African Countries

 The White House issued an executive order dated 31 July 2025 titled "Further Modifying the Reciprocal Tariff Rates," which updates global tariff rates. 

Algeria, Libya, and South Africa now have 30 percent tariffs.  Tunisia has a 25 percent tariff.  The following countries have 15 percent tariffs: Angola, Botswana, Cameroon, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, DRC, Equatorial Guinea, Ghana, Lesotho, Madagascar, Malawi, Mauritius, Mozambique, Namibia, Nigeria, Uganda, Zambia, and Zimbabwe.  

Other countries in Africa face a 10 percent tariff.  

China Funds Satellite Data Receiving Ground Station for Namibia

 The South China Morning Post published on 3 August 2025 an article titled "Beijing Builds Influence with Help for African Space Sector" by Jevans Nyabiage.

China funded and built a satellite data receiving ground station on the outskirts of Namibia's capital of Windhoek.  Together with other stations, it could provide China with continuous telemetry, tracking and command capabilities for its expanding space missions.

China has bilateral agreements with over a dozen African countries for space technology, training, and infrastructure.  African countries are increasingly partnering with China in space technology.  

China's Relations with North African Countries

 The South China Morning Post published on 29 November 2024 an article titled "What Xi's Flying Visit to Morocco Means for China's EV Industry" by Jevans Nyabiage.  

As China ramps up its commercial ties with Morocco, especially electric vehicle manufacturing, it is also working to improve relations with increasingly authoritarian Tunisia and retain close ties with Algeria.  If China becomes too close to Morocco, disagreement with Algeria over the Western Sahara could pose a challenge for Beijing's relations with Algiers.  

China-Tunisia Economic Relations in Decline

 Chinamed Data recently posted a series of charts that track China-Tunisia economic relations.  They demonstrate a decline in Chinese investment stock in Tunisia, fewer Chinese contract workers in the country, less contracts awarded to Chinese companies, and declining Tunisian exports to China.  The only category that increased was Chinese exports to Tunisia, which reached $2 billion in 2023 compared with only $250 million dollars of Tunisian exports to China.  

African Perception of Chinese Leadership Edges Ahead of US

 Gallup published on 26 April 2024 an article titled "U.S. Loses Soft Power Edge in Africa" by Benedict Vigers.

Gallup just published the results for 2023 of approval ratings in 36 of Africa's 54 countries on leadership in the United States, China, Russia, and Germany.  In 2023, China nudged ahead of the United States by two points compared with 2022.  Both the United States and China remained well ahead of Russia, which did restore its position following a drop in the aftermath of its attack on Ukraine.  

The view of U.S. leadership improved significantly in Ghana, Mauritania, Cote d'Ivoire, and Tunisia but declined sharply in Kenya, Gambia, and Uganda.  China's position was much stronger in Ghana, Cote d'Ivoire, Senegal, and Guinea, but fell sharply in Gambia and Uganda.  The approval rating for the United States, China, and Russia is down significantly from where it was in 2011.

Chinese Foreign Minister's Visit to Egypt and Tunisia

 China Med posted on 24 January 2024 an article titled "Wang Yi's First Trip of 2024 According to the Egyptian and Tunisian Press" by Mariateresa Natuzzi.  

The recent visit of China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi to Egypt and Tunisia underscored China's wide range of engagement with Egypt and the focus only on tourism in Tunisia.  There was a steady growth in Chinese foreign direct investment (FDI) in Egypt from 2003 through 2022.  During the same period, FDI has remained almost non-existent in Tunisia.  

Secretary Blinken's Visit to Africa Follows One by China's Foreign Minister

 Modern Diplomacy published on 18 January 2024 an article titled "Blinken to Refocus on Africa as Russia, China Make Gains."

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken will visit Cabo Verde, Cote d'Ivoire, Nigeria, and Angola 21-26 January.  The trip follows one by Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi to Egypt, Tunisia, Cote d'Ivoire, and Togo.  The article implies there is a connection on the timing of Blinken's visit to the one by Foreign Minister Wang.  

Comment:  The media tend to see these visits as an example of US/China/Russia competition, especially when they occur one after the other and when one or more of the same countries are visited.  But Secretary of State visits unrelated to world crises such as the war in Gaza are usually planned months in advance and normally have no connection to visits by other world leaders.  

Chinese FDI in North Africa and the Horn of Africa 2003 through 2022

 China Mediterranean Observer recently posted "Examining New Data on Chinese Foreign Direct Investment across the Wider Mediterranean Region."  It includes data from 2003 through 2022 for countries in the Middle East, Southern Europe, North Africa, and the Horn of Africa.  The African countries are Algeria, Djibouti, Egypt, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Libya, Mali, Morocco, Mauritania, South Sudan, Sudan, and Tunisia.

From 2021 to 2022, Chinese investment in North Africa and the Horn of Africa declined by almost 7 percent.  The decline in value probably occurred because of conflict in the region, especially in Sudan, Libya, and Ethiopia.  Mali was one of the few countries in the region to experience an increase, apparently due to Chinese investment in lithium mines.  

China-Africa Space Cooperation

 The South China Morning Post published on 21 November 2023 an article titled "How China Ties Space Projects in Africa with Climate and Security Priorities" by Jevans Nyabiage.

While a number of countries collaborate with Africa on satellite launches and space cooperation, China does so in a manner that coordinates them with its foreign policy.

China's Outreach to Political Parties in North Africa and Middle East

 The South China Morning Post published on 14 August 2023 an article titled "How China's Communist Party Seeks to Win Friends and Influence Through Mideast Political Groups" by Zhao Ziwen.  

The Communist Party of China (CPC) recently reached out to political parties in North Africa and the Middle East.  More than 60 party leaders and think tank representatives from 19 countries were invited to the dialogue in China, which has been held every two years since 2016.  At this event, the CPC promotes its governance model to Arab countries as a path to development.  

Impact on Africa of Russian Cancellation of Ukraine Grain Exports

 The Council on Foreign Relations published on 19 July 2023 an analysis titled "Russia Killed the Black Sea Grain Deal.  These Countries Could Suffer Most" by Kali Robinson.  

Ukraine produces about 10 percent of the world's wheat and 15 percent of its corn.  Russia's cancellation of the deal to allow Ukraine to export grain from Black Sea ports will negatively impact a number of African countries.  The percentage of wheat imported from Ukraine as a share of total wheat imports follows:  Libya (49 %), Ethiopia (45 %), Tunisia (31 %), Mauritania (23 %), Madagascar (20 %), Nigeria (18 %), Kenya (14 %), Zambia (13 %), and Uganda (12 %).