Likely Impact of China's Zero Tariff Policy on African Imports (in French)

 GeopoWeb posted on 18 May 2026 an analysis titled "Africa, China, and Zero Tariffs: A Diplomatic Gesture Put to the Test by the Data" by Thierry Pairault.  

Effective on May 1, China began a policy of zero tariffs on imports from all African countries except Eswatini, which recognizes Taiwan.  Six African countries (South Africa, DRC, Angola, Guinea, Zambia, and Congo Brazzaville) now supply three quarters of China's imports from Africa.  Most of these imports consist of minerals, metals, and crude oil, which already enter China duty free.

A modest quantity of African agricultural products will benefit from the zero-tariff policy.  Landlocked African countries, which tend to be among the poorest, will receive little or no benefit from the zero-tariff policy because of transportation constraints.  In addition, non-tariff barriers such as sanitary standards remain in effect.  Thierry identifies several other barriers to increased African exports to China that will limit the impact of the zero-tariff policy.  He also compares the impact of EU and Chinese imports from Africa.

Thierry concludes the zero-tariff policy has less to do with rebalancing trade between China and Africa than it is an effective diplomatic tool at little cost to China but also limited in its economic impact.  

Two African Leaders Attend China's Military Parade

 Semafor Africa published on 3 September 2025 an article titled "Congo Brazzaville, Zimbabwe Presidents Attend China's Military Parade" by Preeti Jha.  

President Denis Sassou Nguesso of the Republic of Congo and Emmerson Mwangagwa of Zimbabwe were the only Africans among the 26 foreign leaders who attended China's military parade in Beijing on 3 September.  

Chinese Diplomacy in Africa

 The LSE Blog posted on 6 August 2025 a commentary titled "China is Reshaping Global Power Dynamics through Diplomatic Ritual" by Paa Kwesi Wolseley Prah, Lingnan University, and Christian Kaunert, Dublin City University.

In January 2025, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi made his first overseas trip of the year to Africa--Chad, Republic of Congo, Namibia, and Nigeria--a practice the Chinese foreign minister has done every year since 1991.  The author argues that Wang Yi's trip represents a systematic erosion of Western influence in Africa.

Trump Travel Bans in Africa Just Add to the Pain

 The New York Times published on 6 June 2025 an article titled "'A Big Slap in the Face': Africans Jolted by Trump's New Travel Ban" by Ruth Maclean and Saikou Jammeh.

Between the imposition of new tariffs and the dismantlement of the US foreign aid program, many Africans see the full travel ban on 7 countries and partial ban on 3 others as singling out Africa for punishment by the Trump administration.  Of the 19 countries globally facing new travel restrictions, just over half are in Africa.  

Trump Travel Restrictions on African Countries Have Little to Do with Terrorism

 The White House published on 4 June 2025 a fact sheet titled "President Donald J. Trump Restricts the Entry of Foreign Nationals to Protect the United States from Foreign Terrorists and Other National Security and Public Safety Threats."

The proclamation fully restricts and limits the entry of nationals from twelve countries found to be deficient with regards to screening and vetting and determined to pose a very high risk to the United States: Afghanistan, Burma, Chad, Republic of Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea, Haiti, Iran, Libya, Somalia, Sudan, and Yemen.

The proclamation partially restricts and limits the entry of nationals from seven countries who also pose a high level of risk to the United States: Burundi, Cuba, Laos, Sierra Leone, Togo, Turkmenistan, and Venezuela.

Comment:  Seven of the twelve fully restricted countries and three of the seven partially restricted countries are in Africa.    

Four of the fully restricted countries--Chad, Republic of Congo, Equatorial Guinea, and Eritrea--were included because nationals from those countries have a history of disproportionally overstaying their visas after coming to the United States.  Three of them--Libya, Somalia, and Sudan--were included because the governments have no competent or cooperative central authority for issuing passports.

All three of the partially restricted countries--Burundi, Sierra Leone, and Togo--have a history of disproportionally overstaying their visas after arriving in the United States.

Clearly, this proclamation, at least in the case of the African countries, has little to do with combatting terrorism and a lot to do with keeping people out of the United States from certain countries for other reasons.  

  

Closing US Embassies: Penny Wise and Pound Foolish

 The New York Times published on 15 April 2025 an article titled "State Dept. Expands Plans for Closing Embassies and Consulates" by Karoun Demirjian.

The New York Times has viewed an internal State Department memo that says the Trump administration is considering plans to close 10 embassies and 17 consulates and reduce or consolidate the staff of several other foreign missions.  Six of the embassies up for closure are in Africa (Central African Republic, Eritrea, Gambia, Lesotho, the Republic of Congo, and South Sudan) and two in Europe (Luxembourg and Malta) as well as Grenada and the Maldives.  Most of the consulates are in Europe.

Comment:  If these closures are carried out, China will have wider diplomatic representation globally than the United States.  Beijing currently has an embassy in all 54 African countries except Eswatini, which recognizes Taiwan. This puts China ahead of the United States today in Africa.  Closing six more US embassies in Africa will leave Washington at a distinct disadvantage.  Gambia has the same voting power in the UN General Assembly as the United States or China. For minimal savings, the Trump administration would alienate ten countries.  The party goes on in Beijing and Moscow.  

Africa: Chinese Oil Imports on Decline, LNG Imports Rising

 The South China Morning Post published on 15 March 2025 an article titled "As Chinese Gas Investments in Africa Take Off, Oil Imports Sink" by Jevans Nyabiage.  

China is importing less and less oil from Africa, now about 10 percent of its global oil imports, but is ramping up its investment in African LNG.   

USAID Projects Shutting Down in Africa and Across Globe

 The Associated Press published on 1 March 2025 an article titled "USAID Cuts Are Already Hitting Countries Around the World.  Here Are 20 Projects that Have Closed" by Sam Mednick, Wilson McMakin, and Monika Pronczuk.  

USAID terminated some 10,000 contracts on 26 February with non-governmental organizations around the world.  This article lists 20 projects--half of them in Africa--that have closed already.  

PLA Navy Hospital Ship Completes Visit to Africa

 The Diplomat published on 11 February 2025 a commentary titled "China's Navy Steps Up Its Peace Ark Diplomacy" by Lea Thome.

The PLA Navy's hospital ship, Peace Ark, completed in December 2024 its six-month circumnavigation of Africa where it made stops of seven days each in the following ports: Victoria, Seychelles; Dar es Salaam, Tanzania; Antsiranana, Madagascar; Maputo, Mozambique; Cape Town, South Africa; Luanda, Angola; Brazzaville, Republic of Congo; Owendo, Gabon; Douala, Cameroon; Cotonou, Benin; Nouakchott, Mauritania; and Djibouti.  

Annual Visits to Africa by China's Foreign Minister

 The China Global South Project published on 9 January 2025 a commentary titled "From 1991 to Today: The Significance of the Chinese Foreign Minister's Annual Africa Tour" by Christian Geraud Neema Byamungu.

Every year since 1991, China's foreign minister has made his first overseas visit to Africa.  On his current visit, Wang Yi is visiting Namibia, Republic of Congo, Chad, and Nigeria.  Each year much ink is spilled by China-Africa analysts trying to explain why the foreign minister visits the particular countries on the itinerary.  The author rightly points out that these trips may simply be about normal, run-of-the-mill diplomacy and have no deeply strategic geopolitical or economically motivated explanation.  

China's Foreign Minister Makes Annual Visit to Africa

 Deutsche Welle published on 8 January 2025 an article titled "Chinese FM's Africa Tour Is More than Symbolic" by Cai Nebe.

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi is making the 35th first overseas visit of the year to an African country.  On this occasion, he is visiting Namibia, Republic of Congo, Chad, and Nigeria.  This tradition has served China's African policy well over the years, especially when it is compared to the practices of Western governments.   

Chinese Companies Engage in Forest Crimes in DRC

 The Environmental Investigation Agency published in October 2024 a report titled "Until the Last Log."

The report indicates that the largest industrial logging companies operating in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Chinese firms Wan Peng and Booming Green, are engaged in apparent forest crimes and corruption to meet their clients' demand for unprocessed logs. The DRC is at risk of becoming the last safe haven for forest looters in the Congo Basin region. 

Chinese Navy Task Force Extends Visit from West Africa to South Africa

 Defence Web published on 25 July 2023 an article titled "Chinese Navy Resumes Port Visits to Cape Town" by Dean Wingrin.

A three ship PLAN task force that had completed its rotation in the Gulf of Aden made port calls in Cote d'Ivoire, Ghana, Nigeria, Gabon, and Republic of Congo before arriving in Cape Town, South Africa on 24 July for a three-day goodwill visit.  The ships include the guided-missile destroyer Nanning, the guided-missile frigate Sanya, and supply ship Weishanhu.

Russian Foreign Minister's Diplomatic Offensive in Africa

 The US Institute of Peace published on 25 August 2022 an analysis titled "Amid War in Ukraine, Russia's Lavrov Goes on Diplomatic Offensive" by Heather Ashby, Jude Mutah, Jason Tower, and Hashem Youssef.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov visited four countries in Africa--Republic of Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, and Uganda--in an effort to shore up understanding for Russia's invasion of Ukraine.  This analysis summarizes Russia's relationship with each of the four countries.  

Russia in Africa: Old Ties Open Doors but Ukraine Is a Negative Factor

 The BBC posted on 28 July 2022 an article titled "Russia-Ukraine Crisis: Lavrov Shows Diplomatic Clout in Africa" by Catharine Byaruhanga.  

Most African countries voted in the UN General Assembly to condemn the Russian invasion of Ukraine, but a significant minority, including South Africa, abstained.  Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has just completed a four-country tour in Africa to build support for Russia's invasion of Ukraine.  French President Emmanuel Macron and senior U.S. officials are also travelling in Africa and making counter arguments.

Russian Foreign Minister Ends Africa Tour in Ethiopia

 The Voice of America published on 28 July 2022 an article titled "Lavrov Lashes Out at West on Africa Tour" by Fred Harter.  

As Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov tried to shift blame for Africa's grain shortages to Western sanctions because of Moscow's invasion of Ukraine, the US announced a $488 million drought relief package for Ethiopia.  

Several Countries Dominate China-Africa Trade

 Quartz Africa published on 8 February 2022 an article titled "Trade between Africa and China Reached an All-time High in 2021" by Carlos Mureithi.

In 2021, China-Africa trade reached $254 billion, surpassing the previous high reached in 2015.  However, China continues to maintain a significant trade surplus with African countries and China-Africa trade constitutes less than 4 percent of China's global trade. 

China's trade is also heavily concentrated in a small number of mostly resource rich African countries.  In 2021, more than half of all China-Africa trade (exports and imports) was with South Africa (21 percent), Nigeria (10 percent), Angola (9 percent), Egypt (8 percent), and DRC (6 percent).  More than half of China's exports to Africa went to Nigeria, South Africa, Egypt, Ghana, and Kenya.  Five African countries--South Africa, Angola, DRC, Republic of Congo, and Zambia--accounted for 71 percent of all exports to China.  

China and Africa: Loans versus Investment

 The Africa Report published on 14 January 2022 an article titled "Africa's Debt Situation Remains Worrying . . . .  But There Is Good News."

China now accounts for about one-fifth of all lending to Africa.  It is an essential player in any solution to Africa's debt.  China is moving to a new development paradigm with a focus on supporting SMEs, human capital investment, green development, and an emphasis on FDI rather than loan financing.   

China's Hidden Debt

 The China Africa Research Initiative published in October 2021 a briefing paper titled "What is the Real Story of China's 'Hidden Debt'?" by Deborah Brautigam and Yufan Huang.  

This paper examines the data underpinning the recent conclusions reached by AidData, a research lab at William and Mary University.  It concludes that the AidData report is unduly alarmist because it is distorted by outliers such as Equatorial Guinea, Republic of Congo, and Venezuela.   

Africa and the 2021 World Happiness Report

The World Happiness Report 2021 has just been released, which includes a ranking of happiness covering the years 2018-2020.  The focus of the report is a measurement of subjective well-being, which relies on three main indicators: life evaluations, positive emotions, and negative emotions.

The report gives the highest ranking to Finland.  The United States ranks in position number 19.  The highest scoring African country is Mauritius in position 50, followed by Libya at 80, and Republic of Congo at 83.  Seven of the ten lowest ranked countries are in Africa: Burundi (140), Tanzania (142), Malawi (144), Lesotho (145), Botswana (146), Rwanda (147), and Zimbabwe (148).