Chinese Exports to Africa Soar; African Exports to China Up Slightly

 APA News published on 9 June 2025 an article titled "China-Africa Trade Surges 12.4% between January and May."

China's exports to Africa between January and May 2025 as compared to the same period in 2024 increased by 20.2 percent while African exports to China increased by only 1.6 percent.  Africa continues to export raw materials to China while importing manufactured goods from China.

Comment:  This exacerbates a long-standing trend of African trade deficits in the China-Africa relationship and African raw materials exported to China in exchange for value added goods.

Uganda Tries to Reduce Huge Trade Deficit with China

 Uganda's Presidential Advisory Committee on Exports and Industrial Development (PACEID) posted on 30 April 2024 an article titled "PACEID Roots for Market Entry of Ugandan Products into China" by Victor Musiimenta.

A trade delegation from Uganda visited China in April to promote exports there.  Uganda has duty free entry into China for more than 90 percent of its agricultural products but exported less than $100 million in all goods to China in 2023.  By contrast, China exports more than $1.3 billion in goods annually to Uganda, leaving a huge trade deficit for Kampala.   

China-Africa Trade, Loans, and FDI 2000-2022

 Boston University's Global Development Center posted on 1 April 2024 a report titled "China-Africa Economic Bulletin, 2024 Edition."

The paper provides useful summaries of China-Africa trade, loans, foreign direct investment, and debt from 2000 through 2022.  China's exports to Africa rose steadily throughout the period while Africa's exports to China peaked in 2012 and have been flat ever since, resulting in significant trade deficits for Africa with China.  

Chinese loans to Africa peaked in 2016 at $28 billion and subsequently fell to about $1 billion in 2021 and 2022.  Africa's debt to China was 13 percent of Africa's total external debt in 2022, which was about the same as debt owed to the World Bank and well under the 28 percent owed to bondholders.  

China-Africa Trade in 2023 Increases, But Africa's Deficit Grows

 China's General Administration of Customs published on 12 January 2024 global trade figures for 2023.  China's trade with Africa increased 1.5 percent over 2022 to $282 billion, but Africa's trade deficit with China also increased.  Chinese exports to Africa reached $173 billion, an increase over 2022 of 7.5 percent.  African exports to China were $109 billion, a decrease of 6.7 percent.  

Kenya Cracks Down on Under Invoiced Goods from China

 Kenya's Business Daily published on 20 September 2023 an article titled "Kenya Targets Chinese Imports in New Tax Evasion Crackdown" by Dominic Omondi.

Kenya imports most of its finished goods from China.  The government has concluded that the value of most of these products, especially electronics such as mobile phones and computers, have not been accurately priced, leading to huge tax losses.  The government will begin working with tax authorities to determine the true value of "high-risk imports from China."

Kenya's Trade Deficit with China Widens

 Kenya's Business Daily published on 11 April 2023 an article titled "Kenya-China Trade Gap Grows Despite Diplomatic Charm" by Constant Munda.  

Kenya's trade deficit with China has widened for the second year in a row despite aggressive efforts by Nairobi to push Beijing to open its markets.  The deficit grew to the highest level since 2017, rising to $3.62 billion in 2022 from $3.51 billion in 2021.  

Several Countries Dominate China-Africa Trade

 Quartz Africa published on 8 February 2022 an article titled "Trade between Africa and China Reached an All-time High in 2021" by Carlos Mureithi.

In 2021, China-Africa trade reached $254 billion, surpassing the previous high reached in 2015.  However, China continues to maintain a significant trade surplus with African countries and China-Africa trade constitutes less than 4 percent of China's global trade. 

China's trade is also heavily concentrated in a small number of mostly resource rich African countries.  In 2021, more than half of all China-Africa trade (exports and imports) was with South Africa (21 percent), Nigeria (10 percent), Angola (9 percent), Egypt (8 percent), and DRC (6 percent).  More than half of China's exports to Africa went to Nigeria, South Africa, Egypt, Ghana, and Kenya.  Five African countries--South Africa, Angola, DRC, Republic of Congo, and Zambia--accounted for 71 percent of all exports to China.  

China-Africa Trade Returns to Deficit for Africa

 Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide published on 24 August 2020 an article titled "China's Exports to Its Three Major Trading Partners all Increased by More than 10%."  

During the first half of 2020, China's global import and export trade fell 4.5 percent on a year-on-year basis.  But its trade with Africa fell 18 percent on a year-on-year basis.  More importantly China's exports to Africa from January to July of $59 billion resulted in a 7 percent reduction while imports from Africa at $40 billion constituted a whopping 30 percent year-on-year decrease.  This means the China-Africa trade relationship has returned to a deficit for Africa, $19 billion during the first half of 2020.   

China's Top 20 Belt and Road Export Partners

Silk Road Briefing published on 26 June 2019 an article titled "China's Top Twenty Belt & Road Export Partners--The Main Buyers of Belt & Road Initiative Materials" by Chris Devonshire-Ellis.

In Africa, only South Africa and Egypt make the top twenty list and both countries are near the bottom of the ranking. Egypt, however, has the largest year over year percentage increase in exports from China.

Chinese Arms Transfers to Africa

The UK newspaper, The Independent, ran an article on 1 March 2016 titled "Two-thirds of African Countries Now Using Chinese Military Equipment, Report Reveals" by Ashley Cowburn. 

Drawing on a new report titled The Military Balance 2016 by the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies, the article states that 68 percent of countries in Africa now use some Chinese military equipment.  Increasingly China is selling more advanced equipment such as unmanned aerial vehicles to Nigeria. 

Africa's Most Strategic Ports

Business Tech published on 8 March 2015 an article titled "Africa's Biggest Shipping Ports."  More than 90 percent of Africa's imports and exports move by sea freight.  The following 7 ports stand out as the most strategic: Durban, Mombasa, Djibouti, Lagos, Abidjan, Suez Canal, and Tangier. 

China's Trade Patterns with African Countries

A recent and highly technical paper to be published in a forthcoming edition of The World Economy on China's trade patterns with African countries is available online.  Titled "The Gravity of China's African Export Promise," the authors are Lauren Johnston, Peking University, Stephen Morgan, University of Nottingham Ningbo China, and Yuesheng Wang, Peking University.  Using a gravity model of China's imports for the years 1995-2009, the authors explore potential dynamics for China's export promise.

China-Africa Trade May Reach $200 Billion in 2012

Standard Bank of South Africa announced on 3 December 2012 that total China-Africa trade may reach $200 billion in 2012, up from $166 billion in 2011. China now accounts for 20 percent of Africa's trade and Africa is China's fastest-growing export destination.

China also increased imports from Africa in 2012; most of the increase was oil from Angola. China's imports of African iron ore were flat while imports of copper, steel and aluminum fell sharply.

Click here to read the brief analysis by Standard Bank.

Uganda, China and Preferential Trade Treatment

Shinyekwa Isaac and Lawrence Othieno have researched Uganda's comparative trade advantage as it applies to China and other members of the East African Community (EAC). Dated September 2011 and titled Uganda's Revealed Comparative Advantage: The Evidence with the EAC and China, it was published by the Economic Policy Research Centre (EPRC) established in 1993 in Kampala. The goal of the EPRC is to foster sustainable growth and development of the Ugandan economy through research and applied policy analysis.

From my perspective, the paper is especially useful because it analyzes Uganda's chances to benefit from the special preferential treatment offered on 4,021 product lines by China. There have been very few studies of China's preferential trade ties with African countries. While there has been more analysis of the larger U.S. preferential trade program for African countries, it seems that neither the U.S. nor the Chinese program has had the positive impact that was originally envisaged. The purpose of these zero tariff programs is to increase African exports to the United States and China respectively.

While Uganda's exports to China increased from $237,000 in 2001 to $20 million in 2009, its imports from China increased from $16 million to $231 million over the same period. Uganda experienced a growing trade deficit with China each year between 2001 and 2009. Uganda's exports to China are growing but at a slower rate than imports from China. Uganda mainly exports cotton, coffee, leather, fish, oil seeds, timber and mineral products to China. One of the purposes of the study is to identify Ugandan products that can benefit from zero tariff treatment into China. The study concludes that without Ugandan policy changes, "Uganda may not have the capacity to increase her exports to China due to the various supply constraints in the economy."