China's Duty-Free Policy Will Not End African Trade Deficits

 The Diplomat published on 16 September 2026 an article titled "China's Free-Trade Offer to Africa Won't Solve the Trade Imbalance" by Matthew J. Rochat.

China's new zero tariff policy across 100 percent of tariff lines for 53 African countries will not resolve the large trade deficits that most African countries have with China.  Extractive products, especially minerals and oil, account for 89 percent of African exports to China, while 94 percent of African imports from China are manufactured goods.  Duty free tariffs have done little to alter this pattern.

Africa Experienced Huge Trade Deficit with China in 2025

 The South China Morning Post published on 21 January 2026 an article titled "Chinese Goods Pour into Africa, Widening Trade Gap to Record US$102 Billion Amid US Pressure" by Jevans Nyabiage.

In 2025, China had a record $102 billion trade surplus with Africa, increasing from a $62 billion surplus in 2024.  In 2025, Chinese exports to Africa increased by 25.8 percent while African exports to China increased by only 5.4 percent.  As China's exports to the United States declined, they ramped up to other parts of the world, especially Africa.

Comment:  The increasing African trade deficit with China poses a major challenge in the relationship.  It remains to be seen if China's recent zero tariff policy for many African countries will make a difference.  In the case of those countries that do not sell what China wants to buy, zero tariffs will not have any significant impact.    

China Increases Duty Free Access for Africa's Least Developed Countries

 Nanyang Technological University in Singapore published on 28 January 2025 an article titled "China Grants Full Duty-free Access to 33 African Countries."

Thirty-three least developed countries in Africa can now export 100 percent of their products duty free to China, which has gradually expanded over the years the range of products eligible for zero-tariff treatment.  In the most recent decision, China added 140 products that qualify.

In the past, however, these tariff exemptions have not significantly increased African exports to China as most of them are primary products such as minerals and oil.  China exports mostly manufactured goods to Africa.  As a result, Africa has a large trade deficit with China.  Factors other than tariffs impact Africa's ability to export to China.  African countries must develop greater processing and manufacturing capacity to export value added goods.   

China's Trade Patterns with African Countries

A recent and highly technical paper to be published in a forthcoming edition of The World Economy on China's trade patterns with African countries is available online.  Titled "The Gravity of China's African Export Promise," the authors are Lauren Johnston, Peking University, Stephen Morgan, University of Nottingham Ningbo China, and Yuesheng Wang, Peking University.  Using a gravity model of China's imports for the years 1995-2009, the authors explore potential dynamics for China's export promise.