US Travel Restrictions Take Aim at Africa Mostly for Visa Overstays

 The White House posted on 16 December 2025 a fact sheet titled "President Donald J. Trump Further Restricts and Limits the Entry of Foreign Nationals to Protect the Security of the United States."

The United States added 15 countries to the list impacted by partial or full travel restrictions.  There are now 34 countries subject to some kind of restriction; 26 are in Africa.  The stated purpose of this policy is "to protect the Nation from national security and public safety threats."  

The proclamation continues full restrictions and entry limitations of nationals from 12 "high-risk" countries.  This includes the following African countries: Chad, Republic of Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea, Libya, Somalia, and Sudan.  

It adds full restrictions and entry limitations on 5 additional countries, including Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger, and South Sudan.

It imposes full restrictions on 2 countries that were previously subject to partial restrictions, including Sierra Leone.

It continues partial restrictions on nationals of 4 original "high risk" countries, including Burundi and Togo.

It adds partial restrictions and entry limitations on 15 new countries.  They include Angola, Benin, Cote d'Ivoire, Gabon, The Gambia, Malawi, Mauritania, Nigeria, Senegal, Tanzania, Zambia, and Zimbabwe.

The Associated Press published on 16 December 2025 an article titled "Trump Expands Travel Ban and Restrictions to Include an Additional 20 Countries" by Rebecca Santana.

This article includes a map that clearly demonstrates the impact of this policy on African countries.

The New York Times published on 16 December 2025 an article titled "Trump Expands Travel Ban and Restrictions to 20 More Countries" by Tyler Pager and Hamed Aleaziz. 

The article reports that homeland security secretary Kristi Noem recommended to President Trump that he institute "a full travel ban on every damn country that's been flooding our nation with killers, leeches, and entitlement junkies."

Comment: Most of the African countries on the list are there because of "high visa-overstay rates and refusal to repatriate removable nationals" from the United States.  Visa overstay means that an individual received a visa at a US embassy overseas to be in the United States for a limited period of time, for example 3 months to visit relatives or one year to study.  They stayed longer than the allotted period, which is a violation of US law.  But it has little or nothing to do with US national security. 

The fact sheet contains some African countries that do have unusually high visa overstay rates.  But others are not especially high.  Mauritania's B-1/B-2 visa overstay rate is 9 percent.  Nigeria has a B-1/B-2 overstay rate of 6 percent and F, M, and J visa overstay rate of 12 percent.  Senegal's B-1/B-2 overstay rate is 4 percent and F, M, and J overstay rate of 13 percent.  

The US policy seems more focused on cracking down on immigration and keeping certain foreigners out of the country than US national security.  As for Kristi Noem's comment on countries in the travel ban, has America fallen to this low level?   

China Likely to Adapt to Latest West African Coup in Guinea-Bissau

 The South China Morning Post published on 15 December 2025 an article titled "Latest Coup Raises Stakes for Beijing's Economic Interests in West Africa" by Jevans Nyabiage.

Just days after the Chinese ambassador met Guinea-Bissau President Umaro Sissoco Embalo to donate airport security inspection equipment, a military coup overturned the government.  Political instability in West Africa has raised the stakes for China's vast economic interests in the region.  Nevertheless, China is likely to remain active in West Africa and adapt to the most recent coup in Guinea-Bissau.  

African Insurgencies Target Chinese Nationals

 NDTV posted on 24 November 2025 an article titled "China's Africa Gamble Turns Dangerous as Insurgencies Target Its Citizens."

Chinese nationals increasingly experience security issues in Africa, especially the Sahel region, as they expand their numbers and presence on the continent.

The Prospects and Limitations of Russia's Africa Corps

 The Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey published in September 2025 a study titled "Putin's New Frontier: The Prospects and Limitations of Africa Corps" by Hanna Notte.

The study chronicles the emergence of the Africa Corps and assesses its activities since the summer of 2023 in relevant African states.  It shows how the Africa Corps consolidated its position in Libya and Mali, where the Wagner Group had a legacy presence on the ground; how it embraced new opportunities in Burkina Faso, Niger, and Equatorial Guinea; in which countries there are indications that the Africa Corps might attempt to make inroads in the future; and where the Wagner Group continues to operate as Wagner--in the Central African Republic.  

An Analysis of Russia's Africa Corps

 The Robert Lansing Institute, an American nonprofit public policy research group, published on 30 September 2025 a detailed report titled "Russia's Africa Corps: Wagner's Successor in Africa (2022-2025)." 

This in-depth account concludes that the Africa Corps has effectively taken over the Wagner Group's Africa program since late 2023.  The Africa Corps maintains a presence in the CAR, Mali, Libya, Sudan, Niger, and Burkina Faso.  It has a small engagement in Equatorial Guinea and prospective deals in Togo, Benin, and Cameroon.  

The shift from the Wagner Group to the Africa Corps marked an effort to align African operations with Russia's state strategy.  The goals of securing allies, resources, and strategic positioning remain, but the execution is now more systematic and overtly tied to the Kremlin.  The Africa Corps is the beginning of a more ambitious Russian expeditionary posture.  

Russia Plays the Long Game in Africa

 War on the Rocks published on 17 September 2025 a commentary titled "Russia Is Shrewdly Playing the Long Game in Africa" by Hanna Notte.

Russia's Africa Corps is methodically replacing the Wagner Group in Africa's Sahel region and is looking to expand elsewhere in West and Central Africa.  Russia seeks to avoid high risk missions and focus on training of local military and law enforcement.  Because of its preoccupation with the war in Ukraine, Russia is playing the long game in Africa.

A Comprehensive Report on Russia's Africa Corps

 The Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey published in August 2025 a study titled "Putin's New Frontier: The Prospects and Limitations of Africa Corps" by Hanna Notte. 

This timely and well researched study concludes that Russia's Africa Corps is a bureaucratic restructuring and rebranding of the Wagner Goup, which only continues to function in the Central African Republic.  It employs many former Wagner mercenary fighters and has taken control of its recruitment infrastructure. 

The Africa Corps is tethered closer to the Russian military's chain of command. It prioritizes training and routine security assistance rather than the high-risk missions of the Wagner Group.  It apparently relies on funding from Russia's state budget.  The Africa Corps might face future competition from countries such as Turkey, Iran, and China.  

Niger Demonstrates Limits of China's Transactional Diplomacy

 The Africa Center for Strategic Studies published on 30 June 2025 an analysis titled "The Limits to China's Transactional Diplomacy in Africa" by Paul Nantulya.

After supporting the democratically elected government in Niger, China has become the main financial backer of the military regime that overthrew the democratic government.  Beijing's transactional approach to Niger has turned sour.  Jihadism is thriving in Niger, including attacks on China's oil investment.  Niger is also having difficulty repaying its debt to China.  

Will China (or Russia) Fill French and American Void in Africa's Sahel Region?

 The South China Morning Post published on 25 February 2025 an article titled "How China Is Filling Void Left by France, US with Strong Military Ties to Africa's Sahel" by Jevans Nyabiage.

The assignment of China's first military attache to Niger raises questions about China's military engagement with Niger as French and American forces were pushed out by Niamey's authoritarian military government.  China is likely to step up arms sales and military training but will likely continue to avoid the kinetic military engagement previously provided by French and American troops. They will leave this to Russia. 

PLA Navy Hospital Ship Completes Visit to Africa

 The Diplomat published on 11 February 2025 a commentary titled "China's Navy Steps Up Its Peace Ark Diplomacy" by Lea Thome.

The PLA Navy's hospital ship, Peace Ark, completed in December 2024 its six-month circumnavigation of Africa where it made stops of seven days each in the following ports: Victoria, Seychelles; Dar es Salaam, Tanzania; Antsiranana, Madagascar; Maputo, Mozambique; Cape Town, South Africa; Luanda, Angola; Brazzaville, Republic of Congo; Owendo, Gabon; Douala, Cameroon; Cotonou, Benin; Nouakchott, Mauritania; and Djibouti.  

US Suspends Funding for Counterterrorism in Africa and Middle East

 The Washington Post published on 16 February 2025 an article titled "Trump's Global Funding Freeze Leaves Anti-terror Programs in Limbo" by Katharine Houreld, Rachel Carson, Susannah George, and Mustafa Salim.  

The Trump administration's suspension of funding for the Anti-Terrorism Assistance program is leaving ongoing training programs in countries like Somalia in limbo.  This provides an opportunity for terrorist groups such as al-Shabaab to step up their efforts to topple legitimate governments.  

China Uses Arms Sales and Donations to Expand Relations with Africa

The South China Morning Post published on 24 August 2024 an article titled "China Donates Military Equipment to Benin in Latest Bid to Build Ties in Africa" by Jevans Nyabiage.  

China and Russia are the primary sources of military equipment for Sub-Saharan Africa.  Most Chinese transfers and nearly all Russian transfers are in the form of sales, but Beijing also donates modest amounts of arms as it recently did in Benin.  

China's Hospital Ship Visiting African Ports

 Defence Web posted on 21 August 2024 an article titled "Chinese Hospital Ship on Goodwill Visit to Cape Town."

The Chinese PLA Navy hospital ship, Peace Ark, has completed visits to Seychelles, Tanzania, Madagascar, and Mauritania.  It is currently visiting South Africa and will continue to Angola, the Republic of Congo, Gabon, Cameroon, Benin, Mauritania, and Djibouti.  

Niger-Benin Dispute Imperils Chinese Oil Project

 The South China Morning Post published on 13 July 2024 an article titled "As Crises Hit Plagued Niger-Benin Oil Pipeline, It May Be Up to China to End the Deadlock" by Jevans Nyabiage.

A dispute between Niger and Benin is blocking the export of Niger's oil through a port in Benin.  A Chinese company financed, built, and operates the pipeline.  It may be up to China to resolve the dispute so that Niger's oil can reach the world market.

Chinese-operated Oil Pipeline between Niger and Benin Faces Threats

 The BBC posted on 22 June 2024 an article titled "Niger Confirms Anti-Junta Rebels Behind Oil Attack" by Lucy Fleming and Tchima Illa Issoufou.

Niger has confirmed that the Patriotic Liberation Front fighting for the release of deposed President Mohamed Bazoum was behind the attack on a Chinese-operated oil pipeline last week.  There is also an ongoing dispute between Niger and Benin, where the pipeline discharges its oil for export.

Chinese-operated Oil Pipeline between Niger and Benin Interrupted Again

 Agence France Presse published on 16 June 2024 an article titled "Six Nigerien Soldiers Killed Guarding Pipeline to Benin."

Armed bandits killed 6 Nigerien soldiers protecting a 1,200-mile-long pipeline from oil fields in Niger to a port in Benin.  The pipeline is operated by the Nigerien Chinese oil company Wapco Niger, which is a subsidiary of the China National Petroleum Corporation.  

Deutsche Welle published on 12 June 2024 an article titled "Benin-Niger Oil Export Row Flares Again" by Rodrigue Guezodje and Kate Hairsine.  

The attack cited above coincided with a charge from Niger that Benin kidnapped 5 Nigerien nationals affiliated with the pipeline.  As a result, Niger shut down the pipeline. Until oil begins to flow again, all three parties--Niger, Benin, and CNPC--are losers.   

US-Niger Relations: Countering Russia

 War on the Rocks published on 3 June 2024 a commentary titled "Why Washington Failed in Niger" by Nathaniel Powell, Oxford Analytica.

Some 1,000 U.S. troops will complete their pullout from Niger at the request of the Nigerien government by 15 September.  A small number of Russian troops has arrived as replacements for the U.S. troops.  Rather than prioritizing security assistance in Africa, the author argues the United States would be better advised to fill shortfalls in humanitarian funding and providing better access to U.S. markets for the continent's agriculture.

Temporary Resolution of Niger-Benin Dispute Allows Oil to Go to China

 The South China Morning Post published on 21 May 2024 an article titled "After Talks with China, Benin Eases Oil Export Ban against Niger."

Benin allowed a shipment of crude oil that arrived by a Chinese-built pipeline from Niger to depart for China following discussion with a delegation from state-owned China National Petroleum Corporation.  China has considerable economic leverage with both countries and likely used it to end their dispute, thus allowing the oil to depart by ship.  

Benin Blocks China's First Oil Shipment from Niger

 Business Insider published on 9 May 2024 an article titled "Benin Blocks China's First Oil Shipment from Niger over Border Feud" by Adekunle Agbetiloye.  

The China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) constructed a 1,200-mile pipeline to transport oil from Niger to a port on the Atlantic Ocean in Benin, as part of a $4.6 billion Chinese investment in Niger's oil sector.  Benin restricted the first export of fuel by ship from its port in retaliation for the Nigerien military government's continuing closure of the border with Benin, thus preventing the shipment of goods by truck from Benin to Niger.  In the meantime, CNPC is caught in the middle of the dispute between these two countries. 

African Perceptions of the China Development Model

Megatrends Afrika published in October 2023 a paper titled "What Explains African Perceptions of China as a Model of Development?" by Oscar M. Otele, University of Nairobi. 

Using Afrobarometer survey data, this paper utilizes multivariate logit models to account for the differences in perceptions among countries.  The paper establishes that education, gender, the rural-urban divide, and respondent's perceptions of the influence of China's economic activities on the country's economy accounted for the differences.