Showing posts with label Middle East. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Middle East. Show all posts

Tuesday, September 9, 2025

Commercial Ship Apparently Responsible for Red Sea Cable Cutting

 The Associated Press published on 8 September 2025 an article titled "Commercial Shipping Likely Cut Red Sea Cables that Disrupted Internet Access, Experts Say" by Jon Gambrell.

A commercial ship dragging an anchor likely cut the four undersea cables in the Red Sea that disrupted internet access in Africa, Asia, and the Middle East.

Thursday, September 4, 2025

China: Falling Crude Oil Imports from Africa

 Visual Capitalist published on 2 September 2025 a chart titled "Visualizing China's Crude Oil Imports by Country" by Dorothy Neufeld and Joyce Ma.

The chart shows China's crude oil imports by major source in 2024.  African countries accounted for less than 9 percent of China's total imports.  This percentage has been steadily declining over the last 15 years but has stabilized in the last couple of years at this low level.

By comparison, in 2024 China received 57 percent of its crude from the Middle East, especially Saudi Arabia, Iraq, UAE, and Iran.  Another 20 percent came from Russia.    


Tuesday, April 22, 2025

China and Egypt Hold First Joint Air Force Exercise

 Newsweek published on 22 April 2025 an article titled "China Shows Off New Warplanes in Challenge to U.S." by Amira El-Fekki.

China's first joint air force exercise with Egypt highlighted Beijing's push to project power into the Middle East and North Africa.  The PLA Air Force sent J-10c and J-10s fighters while Egypt fielded its MiG-29 aircraft for the exercise.

Tuesday, April 8, 2025

USAID's Door Closing Quickly

 The Washington Post published on 7 April 2025 an article titled "Marco Rubio Said He'd Protect Lifesaving Aid Overseas.  DOGE Disagreed" by Annie Gowen.

USAID's new 28-year-old deputy administrator from the DOGE team has ordered the termination of key medical and emergency assistance work across Africa and the Middle East.  His order seems to contradict Secretary of State Marco Rubio's promise to continue lifesaving USAID programs.  

Monday, February 17, 2025

US Suspends Funding for Counterterrorism in Africa and Middle East

 The Washington Post published on 16 February 2025 an article titled "Trump's Global Funding Freeze Leaves Anti-terror Programs in Limbo" by Katharine Houreld, Rachel Carson, Susannah George, and Mustafa Salim.  

The Trump administration's suspension of funding for the Anti-Terrorism Assistance program is leaving ongoing training programs in countries like Somalia in limbo.  This provides an opportunity for terrorist groups such as al-Shabaab to step up their efforts to topple legitimate governments.  

Wednesday, December 4, 2024

Russia in the Middle East and North Africa

 The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace published on 2 December 2024 a study titled "Russia in the Middle East and North Africa: Arms, Power Projection, and Nuclear Diplomacy" edited by Amr Hamzawy.

The study contains the following chapters:

Introduction - Russia in the Middle East and North Africa--Disrupting Washington's Influence and Redefining Moscow's Global Role by Amr Hamzawy.

1. The Soviet Roots of Putin's Foreign Policy Toward the Middle East by Mark N. Katz.

2.  Russia's Balancing Act in the Levant by Maha Yahya and Mohanad Hage Ali.

3.  Soviet and Russian Policies Toward Egypt: Two Snapshots by Amr Hamzawy and Rain Ji.

4.  A Mixed Balance Sheet: Russia's Uneven Influence in the Maghreb by Frederic Wehrey.

5.  Autocrats United: How Russia and Iran Defy the U.S.-led Global Order by Nicole Grajewski and Karim Sadjadpour.

6. China and Russia in the Gulf: A Cacophony of Influence and Interest by Robert Mogielnicki.

7,  Turkiye and Russia: An Unequal Partnership by Sinan Ulgen.

8.  Russia's Enduring Presence in the Middle East by Eugene Rumer and Andrew S. Weiss.

9.  Russia's Great Energy Game in the Middle East by Sergey Vakulenko.  


Saturday, November 9, 2024

An Analysis of China's Approach to the Red Sea Crisis

 The 2024 fall edition of Middle East Policy contains an article titled "Security in Neutrality: Chinese Engagement in the Middle East and the Red Sea Crisis" by Christopher K. Colley and Joshua R. Goodman, both at the Air War College at Maxwell Air Force Base.

The authors conclude that the primary goal of China in the Red Sea crisis is to use diplomacy to avoid escalation and entanglement in military conflict.  Its second preference is to free ride on the efforts of others.  If there are clear dangers to Chinese nationals or economic interests, it is prepared to respond militarily.  

Wednesday, October 16, 2024

A Decade of Egypt-Russia Relations

 The South African Institute of International Affairs published in September 2024 a paper titled "Strategic Partners or Tactical Allies? A Decade of Egypt-Russia Relations" by Heba Taha, Lund University of Sweden.

The paper assesses the drivers of the Egyptian-Russian relationship and its evolution over the past decade.  The author concludes that the relationship reflects a tactical convergence and is mostly structured around mutual interests.  Egypt forms a key part of Russia's turn to the Middle East and Africa.  At the same time, Egypt perceives closer cooperation with Russia as a way to balance its relationship with the United States.  

Monday, September 23, 2024

The Middle East's View of the China Model

 The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) published in September 2024 a report titled "The Middle East's View of the 'China Model'" by Jon B. Alterman.  

The CSIS Middle East Program researched Arab populations' desire for an alternative development model to the one proffered by Western states.  The project focused on Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and the United Arab Emirates.

The study concluded that China's Middle East strategy is focused on the United States, but China is not engaged in straightforward competition.  China's strategy does not seek to replace the United States in the Middle East, push it out, or outcompete it.  Instead, China is working to untie the Middle East from the United States and to make the region and world more receptive to China.

China will continue to seek to increase its role in the Middle East.  The United States should not fear China's presence.  Rather, Washington needs to sharpen regional understandings of the value of U.S. partnerships, lower the costs of maintaining them, and clarify the consequences of undermining them.  

Friday, August 30, 2024

Ethiopia to Build Biggest Airport in Africa

 Nanyang Technological University in Singapore published on 23 August 2024 an article titled "Ethiopia Awards Contract to Construct the Biggest Airport in Africa."

Ethiopian Airlines awarded a contract to a consortium led by Dar, a Middle East-based architecture and engineering consultancy, to develop what will become the largest airport in Africa located 40 kilometers from Addis Ababa.  The first phase will cost $6 billion and be operational in 2029.

Wednesday, August 28, 2024

China's Advanced Military Aircraft Visit Egypt

 The South China Morning Post published on 27 August 2024 an article titled "China's Y-20 Transport Plane Heads to Egypt on Mideast Military Influence Mission" by Zhao Ziwen.

China's Y-20 transport plane and six J-10's, China's first domestic advanced jet fighter, flew over Cairo in advance of the upcoming Egypt International Airshow.  This is clearly an effort to show off China's most advanced military aircraft to an audience in North Africa and the Middle East.

Thursday, February 15, 2024

China Freerides in the Red Sea

 The Atlantic Council published on 13 February 2024 an analysis titled "China Is Testing Its Freeriding Strategy in the Red Sea" by Leonie Allard.

China is freeriding on US and European security efforts in the Red Sea to enhance its own presence and influence in the Gulf of Aden and northwestern Indian Ocean.  It is reaping benefits while others secure the shipping lanes in the Red Sea.  

Wednesday, February 14, 2024

China's Red Sea Strategy

 Foreign Policy published on 14 February 2024 a commentary titled "What the Red Sea Crisis Reveals About China's Middle East Strategy" by Jon B. Alterman, Center for Strategic and International Studies.  

There has been no sign of Chinese mediation and little sign of Chinese diplomacy on the conflict in Gaza and the Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping.  China is finding it difficult to conduct diplomacy in the Red Sea region and is demonstrating an aversion to doing hard things that serve common benefit.  Instead, Chinese officials are hunkering down and looking for marginal ways to advance their own interests at the expense of partners.

Does Red Sea Crisis Benefit China's Global Strategy?

 The Stimson Center published on 12 February 2024 an analysis titled "China Sees an Opportunity in Red Sea Crisis with the Houthis" by Emil Avdaliani, European University in Tbilisi, Georgia.

The author argues that China sees some benefit in the Red Sea shipping crisis because it raises Beijing's profile as an external power and serves to distract Washington from the Indo-Pacific region.  China believes events like this will contribute to a gradual decline of the American-led global order.  

Friday, February 9, 2024

Why China Tolerates Houthi Attacks on Red Sea Shipping

 Project Syndicate published on 7 February 2024 an analysis titled "Why China Won't Fight the Houthis" by Yun Sun, Stimson Center.

Although Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping could eventually undermine China's economic recovery, Beijing's approach to the US-led effort to end the attacks is no cooperation, no support, and no confrontation.  China welcomes the strain the US effort places on its relations with countries in the region other than Israel.  

Thursday, January 11, 2024

Chinese FDI in North Africa and the Horn of Africa 2003 through 2022

 China Mediterranean Observer recently posted "Examining New Data on Chinese Foreign Direct Investment across the Wider Mediterranean Region."  It includes data from 2003 through 2022 for countries in the Middle East, Southern Europe, North Africa, and the Horn of Africa.  The African countries are Algeria, Djibouti, Egypt, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Libya, Mali, Morocco, Mauritania, South Sudan, Sudan, and Tunisia.

From 2021 to 2022, Chinese investment in North Africa and the Horn of Africa declined by almost 7 percent.  The decline in value probably occurred because of conflict in the region, especially in Sudan, Libya, and Ethiopia.  Mali was one of the few countries in the region to experience an increase, apparently due to Chinese investment in lithium mines.  

Tuesday, October 3, 2023

China and Russia Are Not Natural Allies in Africa and the Middle East

 World Politics Review published on 3 October 2023 a commentary titled "Russia and China Don't See Eye to Eye in the Middle East and Africa" by Samuel Ramani, University of Oxford.

Chinese experts on the Middle East and Africa question Russia's value as a partner in both regions.  Likewise, Russian experts on the Middle East and Africa question China's value as a partner.  While both countries seek to undermine US influence, they often pursue different responses to crises in both regions.  A Sino-Russian axis is unlikely to form on the ground in Africa or the Middle East.

Wednesday, September 6, 2023

Chinese Private Security Companies in North Africa and the Middle East

 The Jamestown Foundation published on 28 August 2023 an analysis titled "Chinese PSCs in MENA: The Cases of Iraq and (South) Sudan" by Sergey Sukhankin.

The activities of Chinese PSCs in North Africa and the Middle East are more opaque and limited than in other regions such as Sub-Saharan Africa and Central Asia.  

Tuesday, August 22, 2023

China's Outreach to Political Parties in North Africa and Middle East

 The South China Morning Post published on 14 August 2023 an article titled "How China's Communist Party Seeks to Win Friends and Influence Through Mideast Political Groups" by Zhao Ziwen.  

The Communist Party of China (CPC) recently reached out to political parties in North Africa and the Middle East.  More than 60 party leaders and think tank representatives from 19 countries were invited to the dialogue in China, which has been held every two years since 2016.  At this event, the CPC promotes its governance model to Arab countries as a path to development.  

Friday, July 21, 2023

Changes for the Wagner Group in Africa and the Middle East

 Brookings published on 18 July 2023 a commentary titled "What's Ahead for the Wagner Group in Africa and the Middle East?" by Vanda Felbab-Brown.

Neither the Kremlin nor Russian intelligence services want to lose the Wagner Group's income and capabilities even if they want better control over the organization.  Russian intelligence services will weaken Yevgeniy Prigozhin's involvement and strengthen the Kremlin's control over Wagner.