The Christian Science Monitor published on 29 August 2023 an article titled "Isolated from West, Russia Looks to Africa as Land of Opportunity" by Fred Weir.
The war in Ukraine has increased the sense of urgency for Moscow to intensify its activities in Africa. At the same time, Ukraine poses a new obstacle for improving ties with Africa.
The Royal United Services Institute published on 2 August 2023 an analysis titled "Where Next for Wagner Group in Africa?" by Simon Rynn.
The analysis looks at where in Africa the Wagner Group might engage in the future and how it might evolve as an organization.
The US Institute for Peace published on 3 August 2023 a commentary titled "Russia's Africa Summit--and Future for Wagner" by Heather Ashby, James Rupert, and Kirtika Sharad.
Wagner Group chief Yevgeniy Prigozhin's appearance at the Russia-Africa Summit in St. Petersburg indicates that the organization will continue its Africa engagement and maintain a significant degree of freedom even after its recent mutiny in Russia.
The Africa Report published on 31 July 2023 a commentary titled "10 Reasons Why Putin's Africa Forum Flopped" by Ghanaian Bright Simons.
The author argues the Russia-Africa Summit flopped because Moscow failed to address substantial deficiencies in its offering to Africa. More specifically:
1. Unequal trade is getting worse.
2. Russia has few real trade partners.
3. There is little technology transfer.
4. African students in Russia play a limited role in advancing Moscow's image.
5. Russia lacks the capacity to follow through.
6. The summit failed to deal with priority issues such as climate change.
7. Russia ignored African civil society.
8. The event lacked any serious African cultural expression.
9. Most large African companies failed to participate.
10. There was no engagement with African entrepreneurs and startups.
The Eurasia Daily Monitor published on 31 July 2023 a commentary titled "Hollow Words and Apparent Setbacks at the Russia-Africa Summit" by Pavel K. Baer.
The author concluded that Russia offered "many pompous pronouncements" at the Russia-Africa Summit in St. Petersburg but Moscow can no longer bankroll friendly African regimes nor compete with China's investment in resource extraction.
The Associated Press published on 30 July 2023 an article titled "African Leaders Leave Russia Summit without Grain Deal or a Path to End the War in Ukraine" by Cara Anna.
After two days at the Russia-Africa Summit in St. Petersburg, African leaders departed with little to show for their requests to resume a deal that kept grain flowing from Ukraine and to find a path to end the war there. Putin's promise of 25,000 to 50,000 tons of free grain to six African countries is a surprisingly small amount compared to that provided by other donors.
The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace published on 31 July 2023 a commentary titled "Second Russia-Africa Summit Lays Bare Russia's Waning Influence" by Vadim Zaytsev.
Since the last Russia-Africa Summit in 2019 at Sochi, Russia's standing in Africa has declined. Trade is less today than in 2019 and Russia accounts for only 1 percent of foreign direct investment in Africa. Russia's invasion of Ukraine has battered its reputation in a number of African countries and the activities of the Wagner Group remain controversial. The Kremlin appears to have little time for Africa and Africa does not have much more for Russia.
Aljazeera published on 27 July 2023 an article titled "Can Africa and China Help End the Russia-Ukraine War?" by Nils Adler.
There will likely be no peace negotiations soon as neither Ukraine nor Russia is prepared to cede territory. Eventually, China's influence over Russia and Africa's relative neutrality could make them well-placed to mediate between Kyiv and Moscow.
Morning Star published on 27 July 2023 an article titled "Russia Agrees to Write Off $20bn of African Debt" by Roger McKenzie.
Vladimir Putin told the first day of the Russia-Africa Summit in St. Petersburg that Moscow is writing off $20 billion of debt to African countries.
Russia Business Today published on 23 October 2019 an article titled "Russia Writes Off Soviet-era African Debt Worth $20bn."
President Putin announced on the eve of the Russia-Africa Summit in Sochi in October 2019 that Moscow has written off more than $20 billion in debt accumulated by African countries during the Soviet era.
APIE News, a Pan-Africanism news portal, published on 23 March 2023 an extensive article titled "Russia's Politics of Writing Off Africa's Debt."
It details several earlier announcements by President Putin that Russia has cancelled over $20 billion in African debt incurred during the Soviet period primarily because of weapon deliveries. President Putin made such an announcement at a meeting of heads of state in South Africa on 27 March 2013, at a meeting of BRICS' leaders on 5 September 2017, and on the eve of the Russia-Africa Summit at Sochi in October 2019.
Eurasia Review published on 21 March 2023 an OpEd titled "Russia's Politics of Writing Off African Debts" by Kester Kenn Klomegah.
The author made most of the same points. The APIE News piece may have been based on Klomegah's OpEd.
Comment: The recent announcement in St. Petersburg of the cancellation of over $20 billion of African debt was one of the leading press takeaways, just as it has been time after time. I guess if you have good news, just keep repeating it year after year because most readers (and journalists) forget it is not new.
Reuters published on 29 July 2023 an article titled "'Exiled' Prigozhin Hails Niger Coup, Touts Wagner Services" by Andrew Osborn.
Russia's mercenary Wagner Group leader, Yevgeniy Prigozhin, reportedly offered the services of his organization to the military leaders who deposed democratically-elected President Mohamed Bazoum in Niger.
Aljazeera published on 27 July 2023 an article titled "Putin On a Charm Offensive as Russia-Africa Summit Kicks Off" by Virginia Pietromarchi.
The Russia-Africa Summit opened in St. Petersburg on 27 July. Only 17 African heads of state or government are attending as compared to 43 who attended the 2019 summit in Sochi. This summit is being dogged by controversy over Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the recent cancellation of the Black Sea Grain Initiative, which will impact negatively some African countries.
Modern Diplomacy published on 22 July 2023 a commentary titled "Russia-Africa Summit to Focus on Neocolonialism and Global Politics" by Kester Kenn Klomegah, an independent researcher.
Political issues will likely dominate the Russia-Africa Summit on 27-28 July in St. Petersburg. Tangible economic results from the last Russia-Africa Summit at Sochi in 2019 have been disappointing. COVID-19 and Russia's invasion of Ukraine account for some of the lack of improvement in Russia-Africa relations but not all of it.
The Conversation published on 21 July 2023 a commentary titled "Russia-Africa Summit Provides a Global Stage for Moscow to Puff Up Its Influence" by Joseph Siegle, Africa Center for Strategic Studies.
While Russian-African economic ties such as trade and investment are modest, the continent provides Russia with a global stage from which Moscow can enhance its geostrategic image. Africa matters more to Russia, especially in the aftermath of its invasion of Ukraine, than Russia does to Africa.
The US Institute of Peace posted on 18 July 2023 testimony titled "Great Power Competition Implications in Africa: The Russian Federation and Its Proxies" by Joseph Sany.
In testimony before the House Committee on Foreign Affairs, the author emphasized Moscow's destructive activities in Africa and how they harm US interests on the continent. He argued that the US must stay engaged in Africa and work with African partners to improve regional security.
Brookings published on 18 July 2023 a commentary titled "What's Ahead for the Wagner Group in Africa and the Middle East?" by Vanda Felbab-Brown.
Neither the Kremlin nor Russian intelligence services want to lose the Wagner Group's income and capabilities even if they want better control over the organization. Russian intelligence services will weaken Yevgeniy Prigozhin's involvement and strengthen the Kremlin's control over Wagner.
The Associated Press published on 14 July 2023 an article titled "South Africa Urges Putin to Not Attend August Summit Due to International Arrest Warrant" by Gerald Imray.
The International Criminal Court (ICC) has issued an arrest warrant for Russian President Vladimir Putin for war crimes involving the abduction of children from Ukraine. South Africa is hosting in August the BRICS summit, which Putin was planning to attend. South Africa is signatory to the convention creating the ICC and technically is responsible for arresting him if he visits South Africa.
In an effort to avoid this dilemma, South Africa suggested that the BRICS summit move to China, be held virtually, or that Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov attend in lieu of Vladimir Putin. Russia rejected all three suggestions. South Africa has postponed a final decision until the Russia-Africa Summit in St. Petersburg on 27-28 July.
