Showing posts with label coup d'état. Show all posts
Showing posts with label coup d'état. Show all posts

Monday, August 31, 2026

Russia's Praetorian Guard Helps Put Down Coup in Niger

 France 24 posted on 30 August 2026 an article titled "Niger Junta Puts Down Mutiny with Help from Russia's Africa Corps."

Niger authorities thwarted a mutiny by young soldiers on 28-29 August with the help of Russia's Africa Corps.  Moscow's ambassador to Niger said the military government requested help, and the mutineers were "neutralised particularly thanks to the intervention of Africa Corps."

Monday, December 15, 2025

China Likely to Adapt to Latest West African Coup in Guinea-Bissau

 The South China Morning Post published on 15 December 2025 an article titled "Latest Coup Raises Stakes for Beijing's Economic Interests in West Africa" by Jevans Nyabiage.

Just days after the Chinese ambassador met Guinea-Bissau President Umaro Sissoco Embalo to donate airport security inspection equipment, a military coup overturned the government.  Political instability in West Africa has raised the stakes for China's vast economic interests in the region.  Nevertheless, China is likely to remain active in West Africa and adapt to the most recent coup in Guinea-Bissau.  

Wednesday, June 18, 2025

West African Military Coups Widen Opportunities/Challenges for China

 The London School of Economics and Political Science blog posted on 11 June 2025 a commentary titled "Military Takeovers in West Africa Are Reshaping Diplomatic Ties" by Paa Kwesi Wolseley Prah and Christian Kaunert, both at Dublin City University.  

Military coups in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger have upended democratic governance, enabling China to deepen economic and strategic engagement as Western influence wanes.  At the same time, there is growing concern over China's policies on debt and labor relations.

Tuesday, March 25, 2025

Ethiopia: The Plot Thickens in Tigray Region

 The Economist published on 20 March 2025 an article titled "A Coup Attempt in Tigray Raises Tensions in the Horn."

A coup attempt by Debretsion Gebremichael and elements of the Tigray Defense Forces in early March triggered a political crisis in Tigray Region.  Eritrean President Isaias Afewerki is reportedly arming the Ethiopian opposition and aligning with the Tigray coup plotters.  

Wednesday, December 20, 2023

Russia's Wagner Group Rebrands to Africa Corps

 The Messenger published on 18 December 2023 an article titled "Russia's Wagner Group Rebrands to Name Used by Nazis in Africa" by Nick Gallagher.

Russia's mercenary Wagner Group has been rebranded as the "Africa Corps," closely mirroring the Third Reich's "Afrika Korps" that operated in North Africa during World War II.  The name change follows Russian Deputy Defense Minister Yunus-bek Yevkurov's visit to Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger in early December to maintain Russia's presence in the region.  The Africa Corps aims to get rid of Western influence in countries seeking its assistance. 

For additional background on this development, see the Institute for the Study of War's piece dated 7 December 2023 titled "Western Failures, Military Coups, and Kremlin Gains Undermine US Strategic and Counterterrorism Interests in the Sahel" by Liam Karr. 

Saturday, November 18, 2023

Coups In Africa's Sahel Complicate China's Relations

 Geopolitical Futures published on 23 October 2023 a commentary titled "The Chaos in the Sahel Damages China" by Giorgio Cuscito.  

Coups since 2020 in Niger, Mali, Burkina Faso, Guinea, Sudan, Chad, and Gabon have complicated China's relations in the region.  As a result, China may scale back some of its riskier economic activity in the Sahel.  

Tuesday, October 24, 2023

Will Russia Replace France in Africa?

 The Hill published on 23 October 2023 a commentary titled "As France Pulls Out of Africa, Will Russia Step In?" by Eliot Wilson.

A spate to military coups in Africa is forcing France to pull troops from the continent--1,500 by the end of the year from Niger, 5,000 out of Mali last summer, and 400 special forces from Burkina Faso this February.  These countries will look for new allies to keep jihadis at bay and Russia's mercenary Wagner Group may be the organization of choice.  

Thursday, October 19, 2023

Update on Situation in Sudan

 The US Institute of Peace published on 19 October 2023 a paper titled "After Six Months of Civil War, What's the State of Play in Sudan?" by Alex Rondos.

The author provides an update on the conflict in Sudan and the involvement of outside countries in the conflict.  The one constant is a worsening humanitarian crisis. 

Friday, October 13, 2023

China's Approach to Military Coups in Africa

 The InterRegional for Strategic Analysis, a consulting firm based in Abu Dhabi, UAE, published on 25 September 2023 an analysis titled "Strategic Adaptation: China's Approach to the Aftermath of Military Coups in Africa" by Mahmoud Zakaria.  

The author concluded that China has adopted a strategy of adjustment and adaptation in dealing with transitional regimes established after military coups in Africa.  This is linked to China's efforts to preserve its objectives and interests, especially in the economic sphere.  It also seeks to fill voids left by Western forces, especially France, and hopes to outpace the United States as it tries to contain transitional military regimes in these African countries.  

Tuesday, October 3, 2023

China and Russia Are Not Natural Allies in Africa and the Middle East

 World Politics Review published on 3 October 2023 a commentary titled "Russia and China Don't See Eye to Eye in the Middle East and Africa" by Samuel Ramani, University of Oxford.

Chinese experts on the Middle East and Africa question Russia's value as a partner in both regions.  Likewise, Russian experts on the Middle East and Africa question China's value as a partner.  While both countries seek to undermine US influence, they often pursue different responses to crises in both regions.  A Sino-Russian axis is unlikely to form on the ground in Africa or the Middle East.

Saturday, September 30, 2023

The Role of Sudanese Political and Civil Society Leaders in the Conflict

 Aljazeera published on 29 September 2023 an article titled "Analysis: Can Sudan's Civilian Leaders Save Their Country from Collapse?" by Elfadil Ibrahim.

Following the outbreak of conflict between the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), civilian groups have taken sides.  The Democratic Bloc, an offshoot of the Forces for Freedom and Change (FFC), has sided with the SAF.  The FFC-Central Council appears to have aligned with the RSF, although its leaders insist it is neutral.  These and other divisions among Sudanese civilian leaders raise questions about their ability to assume leadership positions should they be given the opportunity.  

Wednesday, September 20, 2023

The New Cold War in Africa

 Foreign Affairs published on 20 September 2023 an article titled "Why the New Cold War Will Split Africa" by Brett L. Carter.

The second cold war is intensifying Africa's democratic recession.  Beijing and its junior partner Russia are strengthening Africa's dictatorships and facilitating backsliding in democracies.  Although the short-term dynamics favor China and Russia as partners for African countries, the long-term dynamics favor the United States.

Wednesday, September 6, 2023

China Says It Intends to Mediate the Political Crisis in Niger

 Türkiye's Anadolu Agency news service published on 5 September 2023 an article titled "China to Mediate in Niger Crisis" by James Tasamba.

China's ambassador to Niger announced that the Chinese government intends to play the role of mediator to find a political solution to the crisis in Niger.  China has invested in Niger's oil sector and is building an oil pipeline from southern Niger to the port of Seme in Benin.

Tuesday, September 5, 2023

Will China Take Advantage of Coup in Gabon?

 The Interpreter published on 4 September 2023 a commentary titled "Coup d'Etat in Gabon: Oil, Champagne, and China's Geopolitical Opportunity" by Cornelia Tremann.

France's loss in Gabon following the military coup may result in China's gain.  Gabon could offer a situation where China will want to have a bigger post-coup profile.  

Thursday, August 31, 2023

The Military Coup in Niger Explained

 For an excellent account of the military coup d'état in Niger and its aftermath, see "The Niger Coup's Outsized Global Impact" published by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace on 31 August 2023 and authored by Gilles Yabi.  

Wednesday, August 30, 2023

China Responds to Military Coup in Gabon

 Turkey's Anadolu news agency published on 30 August 2023 an article titled "China Calls for Safety of Gabon's President Following Military Coup."

China, like many other countries, is struggling with the right response to a string of military coups in Africa, the most recent in Gabon.  A Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson called "on all sides in Gabon to proceed from the basic interests of the country and the people, resolve differences through dialogue, and restore normal order as soon as possible."

Friday, August 11, 2023

Sudan's Conflict and the Importance of Social Media

 The Atlantic Council published on 8 August 2023 a study titled "Sudan's Precarious Information Environment and the Fight for Democracy" by Tessa Knight and Lujan Alsedeg.

This report examines the state of digital affairs on Sudan in the lead-up to the current conflict, focusing on the period from the October 2021 coup through December 2022.  Although only one third of the country has internet access, the government imposed constant internet disruptions.  

Tuesday, August 8, 2023

Is Russia Pursuing a Pattern in Niger?

 The Hill published on 4 August 2023 an article titled "The Niger Coup Exposes Russia's Grand Strategy for Africa" by Stephen Blank, Foreign Policy Research Institute.

The author argues that Russia is following the same pattern in Niger that it did in Mali and Burkina Faso by supporting a military regime that overthrew a democratically-elected government. 

Wednesday, August 2, 2023

Great Powers and the Coup in Niger

 Foreign Policy published on 2 August 2023 a commentary titled "Who Benefits from Niger's Coup?" by Samuel Ramani.  

The United States and France condemned the coup in Niger and reaffirmed President Mohamed Bazoum's legitimacy.  China issued a more neutral statement of concern and emphasized the safety of its nationals.  Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov vaguely supported the restoration of constitutional order while Wagner Group chief Yevgeniy Prigozhin described the coup as a victory against Western colonialism and offered the services of his organization to the Nigerien military.

Despite some public demonstrations favoring Russia and Putin, Niger has few links with Moscow and Russia remains an unknown quantity for Nigerien officials. Nevertheless, the Wagner Group may be a siren song for the new military leaders.  China is the second largest investor in Niger after France and deeply involved in the oil and uranium sectors. China will be reluctant to abandon these projects.     

Tuesday, August 1, 2023

China's Interests in Coup-plagued Niger

 Reuters published on 31 July 2023 an article titled "China's Oil and Uranium Business in Niger" by Andrew Hayley.

China is Niger's second largest foreign investor, mainly in uranium and oil, after France.  A Chinese company is also laying a 1,200 mile oil pipeline (63 percent complete) between the Agadem field and the Beninese port city of  Cotonou.