The Complexities of the China-Libya Relationship

 The ChinaMed Project published on 30 January 2026 an analysis titled "China and the Libyan Crisis: Maintaining a Foot in the Door in a Changing Region" by Bianca Pasquier and Leonardo Bruni.  

This paper revisits the past decade of Chinese engagement in Libya, tracing Beijing's evolving relations with the country's factions and situating them within a regional context.  It concludes that China is unlikely to engage deeply in Libya's power struggles.  Beijing will likely keep its options open, be present but uncommitted.  

Control of Red Sea Shifts from Saudi Arabia to Global Power Rivalry

 Alhurra published on 30 December 2025 an article titled "The Red Sea Shifts from Saudi Control to Global Power Rivalry" by Sukina Ali.

The militarization of the Red Sea by international powers has diminished Saudi Arabia's influence in the strategic waterway.  The Red Sea has been transformed from a region potentially governed by Saudi-led shared regional management to one ruled by the interests of overlapping external powers.

Illegal Chinese Fishing off Gambia

 Voxeurop posted on 10 November 2025 an article titled "The Gambia's Stolen Catch: How Chinese Trawlers Feed Europe's Seafood Market" by Davide Mancini.

The Gambia has a tiny exclusive economic zone, but it is a hotspot for illegal fishing because of the nutrient-rich waters.  Chinese-controlled trawlers are the principal offenders.  

Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam and the Region's Political Disputes

 Ethiopia Insight published on 7 October 2025 a commentary titled "GERD at Dawn: Ethiopia's Triumph and the Niles's Uncertainty" by Muktar Ismail, a regional analyst.

Now that the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam GERD) is complete and functioning with no apparent damage to downstream Sudan and Egypt, the primary downstream concern is how water will be released from the reservoir behind the dam during a long-term drought in the Nile Basin.  Disagreements with Egypt and Sudan over the GERD are also spilling over into other regional disputes.

Battle of Adwa and Ethiopian Unity

 Ethiopia Insight published on 6 May 2025 a commentary titled "Adwa Is Not the Only Oppressive Ethiopian Myth" by Tarfassa W. Barooddee, a self-employed Oromo living in North America.

The conventional narrative describes the 1896 Battle of Adwa as a decisive triumph of a united African nation resisting European imperialism.  But the author argues that "this romanticized myth" obscures a harsher truth: victory at Adwa did not spare the subject peoples of the south from oppression and violence.  The author concludes that Ethiopian unity cannot be forged by manipulating history.  

Impact on Shipping of Houthi Red Sea Attacks

 The Italian Institute for International Political Studies published on 24 November 2024 a paper titled "Blue Economy and the Mediterranean: How the Red Sea Crisis is Shaping the Region's Maritime Future (and What Is Next)" by Mario Mattioli.

Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping reduced transit through the Suez Canal by about 50 percent in 2023 and 70 percent in the first half of 2024.  Transit around Africa's Cape of Good Hope adds 3,000 to 3,500 nautical miles to voyages connecting Europe and Asia, increasing travel time by about 10 days.  This results in higher costs for fuel, wages, insurance, and freight borne by shipping companies.

The Rise of Eritrean Cyclists

 African Arguments posted on 15 September 2024 a commentary titled "Eritrean Cycling: How a Colonial Legacy Became a National Passion" by Mohamed Kheir Omer, an African-Norwegian researcher based in Oslo.  

Introduced by the Italians in the late 19th century, cycling has become a vital part of Eritrean culture.  Eritrean Biniam Girmay became the first African cyclist to win the Green Jersey at the 2024 Tour de France.  Eritrean success in cycling has occurred in spite of the fact that the government prioritizes military service over athletic development.  

US-led Red Sea Protection Force

 The Associated Press published on 19 December 2023 an article titled "Pentagon Announces New International Maritime Protection Force for the Red Sea."

At any given time, there are about 400 commercial vessels transiting the southern Red Sea in an area where Iranian-supported and Yemen-based Houthis are attacking commercial shipping with drones and ballistic missiles.  Consequently, the United States has organized Operation Prosperity Guardian to protect all ships transiting the Red Sea.  So far, the UK, Bahrain, Canada, France, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Seychelles, and Spain have joined the security mission. 

One notably absent participant is China, which has three PLA Navy ships (usually two frigates and a supply ship) permanently assigned in the area.  So far, those ships have not responded to previous calls for assistance by commercial vessels even though some of the ships attacked have had ties to Hong Kong.  

Video on Ethiopia's Goal to Access the Sea

 Joseph Pisenti, an American YouTuber in Dallas, Texas, who uses the name RealLifeLore recently posted a 50-minute video titled "Why Ethiopia Is Preparing to Invade Eritrea Next."  

This is a summary of Ethiopian history, demography, religion, and ethnicity leading up to Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's expression of the need for landlocked Ethiopia to have access to the Red Sea.  

Financing African Energy Projects

 The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace published in November 2023 a paper titled "Who Finances Energy Projects in Africa?" by Oyintarelado Moses.  

The largest energy finance providers in Africa between 2012 and 2021 were China, World Bank, Italy, France, and the United States.  The top African recipients of energy during these years were Egypt, Mozambique, Nigeria, South Africa, and Angola.  

The Military Coup in Niger Explained

 For an excellent account of the military coup d'état in Niger and its aftermath, see "The Niger Coup's Outsized Global Impact" published by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace on 31 August 2023 and authored by Gilles Yabi.  

Is Algeria Rebalancing Its Relations Among Russia, China, and the West?

 The Fikra Forum published on 9 August 2022 an analysis titled "Algeria's Foreign Policy: Facing a Crossroads" by Vasilis Petropoulos, Berghof Foundation.  

Algeria has been drawn to Russia and China in recent years for a variety of reasons but its growing economic ties with France, Spain, and Italy and Putin's invasion of Ukraine are causing a reassessment in favor of non-alignment.  

AFRICOM: Move from Stuttgart to Another European City?

 The Washington Post published on 10 September 2020 a story titled "The Trump Administration Is Considering Moving U.S. Africa Command.  It Won't Be Cheap or Easy" by Dan Lamothe.  

According to the article, the Trump administration is looking at locations in Italy, Spain, Belgium, and the UK for relocating the Africa Command, which is currently co-located with the European Command in Stuttgart.  

While an argument can be made for relocating AFRICOM to an underutilized military base on the east coast of the United States for long-term cost reasons, the proposal to move it from one European city to another makes no sense whatsoever.     

Zambian Air Force Procurement from China

The China Africa Research Initiative at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies published in May 2020 a policy brief titled "African Military Aircraft Procurement from China: A Case Study from Zambia" by Jyhjong Hwang. 

China has sold the Zambian Air Force 44 percent of its current aircraft and helicopter inventory.  The author concluded there is no indication that the increase in Chinese loans to Zambia is an attempt to gain access to Zambia's copper supply.  Nor is there any indication that Zambia is being pressured into purchasing Chinese aircraft due to its current debt held by China.

Ethiopia: Two Book Reviews

The American Interest published in March 2020 two book reviews titled "The Long Ethiopian Century" by James Barnett, journalist covering East Africa.

The author reviewed two recent books about Ethiopia: The Wife's Tale: A Personal History by Aida Edemariam and The Shadow King: A Novel by Maaza Mengiste. The Wife's Tale is a personal history of the 97-year life of the author's Ethiopian grandmother. The Shadow King is a novel based on a female resistance fighter during the Italo-Ethiopian war.

Africa's Surveillance Market and Foreign Help

The Africa Report published on 3 February 2020 an article titled "Inside Africa's Increasingly Lucrative Surveillance Market" by Mathieu Olivier.

The article looks at companies from a number of Western countries, Israel, China, and Russia that are assisting African countries to develop their surveillance capability. The author concludes that whether the technology comes from the French, Russians or Chinese, no country has the technical ability to fully protect itself from monitoring the networks that the companies install.

This article appeared first in Jeune Afrique on 29 January 2020 titled "Entre Surveillance des Opposants et des Terroristes, le Juteux Marche de l'Espionnage en Afrique."

Chinese and American Military Bases Eyeball to Eyeball in Djibouti

Canada's The Globe and Mail published on 7 June 2019 an article titled "Parting the Red Sea: Why the Chinese and U.S. Armies Are Fortifying This Tiny African Country" by Geoffrey York.

Both China and the United States have significant military bases a few miles from each other in Djibouti. China and the United States use their respective bases to expand their geopolitical influence at this intersection of Africa and the Middle East. The author asks what could possibly go wrong?

Non-Regional Actors in the Red Sea Basin

These are remarks I made at a work shop held in Amman, Jordan, on 26-27 April 2019 concerning opportunities and challenges in a collective approach in the Red Sea region. My remarks were titled "Interests of Non-Regional Actors in Suez Canal/Red Sea/Gulf of Aden Region."

Chinese Companies Export Timber Illegally from Gabon and Congo; US and Europe Buy Finished Product

The Environmental Investigation Agency published on 25 March 2019 a report titled "Toxic Trade: Forest Crime in Gabon and the Republic of Congo and Contamination of the US Market."

The Dejia Group, affiliated companies controlled by the Chinese mogul Xu Gong De, harvest, process, and export mostly to China illegally-sourced okoume trees from the tropical forests of Gabon and the Republic of Congo. The US importer Evergreen Hardwoods purchases veneer produced from these trees that makes its way to the American consumer. The Dejia Group has also placed hundreds of thousands of tons of timber products in European countries such as France, Belgium, Italy, Spain, and Greece.

US Diplomatic and Military Operations in Horn of Africa

The Academy of Diplomacy posted on 20 September 2018 a 30-minute podcast titled "Capacity and Capability: US Diplomatic and Military Operations in the Horn of Africa" with former US ambassador to Djibouti, Thomas Kelly, and former commander of Combined Joint Task Force-Horn of Africa, General Kurt Sonntag.

The podcast discusses US policy on key issues in the Horn of Africa and Yemen, US relations with other countries that have military bases in Djibouti, counterterrorism, anti-piracy, refugees, and trade.