Maritime Multilateralism in the Indian Ocean

 The Diplomat published on 16 January 2026 an analysis titled "The New Age of Maritime Multilateralism in the Indian Ocean" by Gayathry Gopal, KCC Institute of Law, Greater Noida.  

The Indian Ocean is not dominated by a single power but by a multitude of actors of varying capabilities and interests, thereby making the emerging order not only polycentric but also highly fragile.  India is the resident and traditional security provider.  The United States has a strong presence in the Indian Ocean.  

No actor, however, matches China in the scale and pace of its expansion.  It now has embassies in all Indian Ocean littoral states, participates in all regional organizations, has invested in some 17 ports around the rim of the Indian Ocean, and has a permanent military base in Djibouti.

Increasingly, smaller states are engaging in the region.  This interplay of great power competition and small states' quest for influence has produced a polycentric security order that is dynamic and structurally fragmented.  

Great Power Competition in Djibouti

 The Mashariki Research and Policy Centre published on 16 September 2025 a paper titled "Future Trajectories of Great Power Competition in Djibouti: A Case Study of Military Bases and Maritime Strategy" by Salim Salim, former secretary general of the Organization of African Unity, now the African Union.

Djibouti has attracted a number of military bases, including facilities from France, the United States, and China.  The author concluded that Djibouti gains from the competition but risks being caught in great power rivalries that could destabilize its delicate balancing act. Djibouti demonstrates how a small, strategically located state, can exert influence far beyond its borders while generating vulnerabilities: dependence on foreign rents, exposure to external shocks, and the risk of entanglement in great power rivalries.  

China-US Competition in Africa: Who's Winning?

 iStocks posted on You Tube on 15 June 2025 a 23-minute video titled "Africa Is Becoming the New Battleground: US vs China -- Who's Winning?"

There is a full-on competition between the United States and China for influence in Africa.  This is a story of power and leverage between Washington and Beijing.  The engagement models used in Africa by China and the US are very different. Beijing provides loans, construction companies, and often its own labor to build infrastructure projects across the continent.  They are fast and avoid political conditionality but add to African debt.  The US is transactional and wants to make deals by mobilizing the private sector.  But they are slow, and the private sector often has difficulty raising financing. 

For many years the US was the preferred partner of most African countries, but recent polls show that China is now the preferred partner.  Recent US policy decisions affecting Africa have also harmed its reputation as a reliable partner.  In the final analysis, Africans don't want to choose between China and the US, but they want the best deal they can get from both partners and others, including the European Union, Turkey, India, Japan, and South Korea.  

China Expands Engagement in Kenyan Ports

 The China Global South Project published on 17 April 2025 an article titled "China Eyes Strategic Role in Kenya's Port Privatization Plans" by Christain Geraud Neema Byamungu.

China is positioning itself for a larger role in Kenya's port infrastructure.  The China Communication Construction Company (CCCC) has recently been awarded the contract to construct Berth 198 at the Port of Mombasa.  CCCC previously provided maritime infrastructure at the port of Lamu.  

Need for a US Indian Ocean Strategy

 Foreign Affairs published on 7 April 2025 a commentary titled "America Needs a Real Indian Ocean Strategy" by Arzan Tarapore, Stanford University.  

Chinese submarine activity will soon surpass India's ability to counter it in the Indian Ocean and India is ill equipped to offset China's growing naval presence.  India's contributions to regional security are significant, but they will be dwarfed by what it will take to counter China's increasing naval capacity.

The author calls on the United States to craft a comprehensive strategy for the Indian Ocean because within a decade an expanding Chinese naval presence will be able to imperil global shipping lanes, extract more resources from countries in the region, and project force far beyond its current ability.  The focus of this US strategy should be building collective military power.     

International Competition in the Gulf of Guinea

 The Al Jazeera Centre for Studies published on 27 January 2025 an analysis titled "The New Battleground: Competing International Interests in the Gulf of Guinea" by Hakeem Alade Najimdeen, a Nigerian researcher.  

The author looks at the interests of the United States, China, Russia, France, United Kingdon, India, Turkey, and Japan in the Gulf of Guinea and the competition among these countries for influence there.  

Japan's Strategic Interests in Africa

 The Center for Strategic and International Studies published in May 2024 a study titled "Japan's Strategic Interests in the Global South: Africa" by Shirato Keiichi, Ritsumeikan University.

The paper reviews the history of Japan's policy toward Africa, summarizes the challenges facing Japan's Africa policy, and proposes ways to make Japan's constructive engagement with Africa sustainable.  It also explores Japan's competition with China and Russia in Africa.

It is in Japan's strategic interest to gain support from as many African countries as possible, to serve as a diplomatic deterrent to dissuade China from furthering unlawful maritime expansion in the Indo-Pacific or invading Taiwan. To gain the support of African countries, Japan needs to contribute to their peace and prosperity through development aid, investment, and military cooperation.  

It will be virtually impossible for Japan to increase development assistance to African countries given its declining birth rate and aging population.  Rather than pursue an increase in development aid to Africa, the Japanese government is faced with redesigning its African diplomacy amid the relative decline of Japan's national strength.

China-India Naval Competition in the Indian Ocean

 

War on the Rocks published on 7 May 2024 a commentary titled "It's Still the Indian Ocean: Parsing Sino-Indian Naval Competition Where It Counts" by Prashant Hosur Suhas and Christopher K. Colley.  

India's naval strategy is geographically well defined and confined to the Indian Ocean, Bay of Bengal, and Arabian Sea.  China is focused on offshore waters and the Pacific.  While China's navy is much larger than India's and more modern, it is not designed at the present time for an Indian Ocean contingency. 

US/EU Lobito Corridor Project Could Counter China's Efforts

 The Washington-based Center for European Policy Analysis posted on 2 April 2024 a commentary titled "Confronting the China Challenge in Africa: The Lobito Corridor" by Eduardo Castellet Nogues.

The US Development Finance Corporation and the Export-Import Bank, together with European partners, are funding a huge infrastructure project in the Lobito Corridor that runs from Zambia's copper fields, through the mineral rich Democratic Republic of the Congo, to the Angolan port of Lobito.  China has been the principal infrastructure partner in this part of Africa throughout this century.  If the project is successful, it could counter China's Belt and Road Initiative in this part of Africa.   

Western Companies Finally Challenge China in African Copperbelt

 Reuters published on 18 February 2024 an article titled "West Challenges China's Critical Minerals Hold on Africa" by Andy Home.

China's CMOC Group is the world's largest producer of cobalt and has significant investments in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC).  Western, including American, mining companies are beginning to challenge Chinese dominance in Africa's Copperbelt in the DRC and Zambia.  In addition, the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation is funding a transportation project that will link the Copperbelt mines directly with the Atlantic Ocean.  

Will China Grant Unique Geographical Status for South African Rooibos Tea?

 The Diplomat published on 13 February 2024 an article titled "What South African Rooibos Tea Can Tell Us about Africa-China Trade Flows" by Rosie Wigmore.

South Africa is pushing China to recognize Geographical Indications for its unique tea known as Rooibos, thus treating it like champagne from France's champagne region.  This would constitute one small step in reversing Africa's growing trade deficit with China.  

UN Security Council Condemns Houthi Red Sea Attacks; China and Russia Abstain

 The Associated Press published on 10 January 2024 an article titled "UN Security Council Demands Houthi Rebels Stop Red Sea Attacks in Vote that Implicitly Condemns Iran" by Edith M. Lederer.

A resolution sponsored by the United States and Japan in the UN Security Council condemned "in the strongest terms" Houthi attacks on merchant and commercial vessels.  The 15-member UNSC approved the resolution 11-0 with abstentions by Russia, China, Algeria, and Mozambique. The UNSC rejected 3 amendments proposed by Russia aimed at watering down the resolution. Without naming Iran, the resolution condemned all efforts to supply arms to the Houthis.  

The Guardian published on 11 January 2024 an article titled "Red Sea Crisis: UN Security Council Demands Immediate End to Houthi Attacks" by Patrick Wintour.  

The article notes that the resolution called on the Houthis to release the Galaxy Leader, a Japanese-operated ship linked to an Israeli businessman commandeered by the Houthis in November with its 25 crew.  There has been a sharp drop in shipping through the Red Sea since the beginning of this round of Houthi attacks.

India and Australia Respond to China in the Indian Ocean

 The Foreign Policy Research Institute published on 6 November 2023 an analysis titled "Australia and India's New Military Bases: Responses to China's Naval Presence in the Indian Ocean" by Felix K. Chang.

The article outlines steps India and Australia are taking to counter a growing Chinese naval presence in the Indian Ocean.  

China-India Competition in the Indian Ocean as Seen by Vietnamese Scholars

 The Journal of Liberty and International Affairs published in July 2023 an article titled "Competition of Strategy between China and India in the Indian Ocean Nowadays" by Tran Hoang Long, Tran Thi Hai Yen, Huynh Trong Hien, and Tran Xuan Hiep.   

The four Vietnamese scholars conclude that China has advantages in the Indian Ocean region, although its presence raises may doubts about its political and military goals.  In the face of competition with China, India has become more flexible and responsive in its Indian Ocean policies as witnessed by its relations with the Maldives and Sri Lanka.  The competition between India and China presents opportunities and challenges for coastal states in the Indian Ocean region.  The competition may also result in a race for military power in the region.  

Building US Security in the Indo-Pacific Region, the Quad, and China

 The US Army posted on 22 September 2023 an article titled "Building the Quad: A Diamond of National Security" by Sarah Hauck.

The same article appeared on 28 September in the Fort Leavenworth Lamp.

The article summarizes a panel presentation on 14 September at the Lewis and Clark Center, Fort Leavenworth, Kansas.  The panel discussed great power competition in the Indo-Pacific region with a particular focus on the role of the Quad (Japan, Australia, India, and US) for enhancing security and competition with China.    

Key Players in the Indian Ocean Region

 The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace published in June 2023 a major study titled "Mapping the Indian Ocean Region" by Darshana M. Baruah, Nitya Labh, and Jessica Greely.

The study treats the Indian Ocean region as one continuous theater and looks at the major players, security challenges, and other factors that shape the region.  It demonstrates how the Indian Ocean's economic, political, military, and geographic features interact to create a single geopolitical arena.  

Coincidentally, the U.S. Department of State posted on 30 May 2023 a fact sheet titled "U.S. Relationship with the Indian Ocean Rim Association and Commitment to the Indian Ocean Region."

The release of the fact sheet was tied to the reopening after 27 years of the U.S. embassy in the Seychelles and the visit to Seychelles, Mauritius, and Comoros by Deputy Secretary of State Richard Verma.

Military Cooperation and Competition in the Indian Ocean

 The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) published on 2 June 2023 a paper titled "The State of Defence Cooperation in the Indian Ocean Region" by Antoine Levesques and Viraj Solanki.

Looking to the early June IISS Shangri-La Dialogue, the authors noted the increased tempo of defense cooperation initiatives in the Indian Ocean region as relations between Bejing and New Delhi became more conflictual beginning in May 2020 in the aftermath of border clashes that led to a zero-sum mentality.  India thus turned to the US-aligned Quad to bolster its regional strategy while China took a series of tangible steps in the Indian Ocean region to improve its security presence.  

Chinese Banks Agree to Finance Controversial East African Oil Pipeline

 The South China Morning Post published on 21 May 2023 an article titled "China Doubles Down on Controversial African Pipeline as Western Leaders Walk Away" by Jevans Nyabiage.  

Strong opposition by environmental and human rights groups have minimized Western lending for the East African Crude Oil Pipeline from Uganda's Lake Albert oilfields to the port of Tanga in Tanzania.  China's Export-Import Bank and several other Chinese banks have agreed to finance the controversial project.  

African Loans and the Debt Database

 The Kiel Institute for the World Economy published in April 2023 a paper titled "Who Lends to Africa and How? Introducing the Africa Debt Database" by David Mihalyi and Christoph Trebesch.  

The African debt boom was mainly driven by large sovereign bond issuances in London and New York, as well as growing lending by Chinese state-owned banks.  The average interest rate for multilateral lenders was 1 percent, for bilateral lenders other than China 1.3 percent, for Chinese lenders 3.2 percent, and for private sector lenders (sovereign bonds) 6.2 percent.  

Japanese Prime Minister Visits Africa

 Quartz published on 1 May 2023 an article titled "Japan's Prime Minister Is Visiting Africa in an Attempt to Counter China's Influence" by Diego Lasarte.  

Japan's Prime Minister, Fumio Kishida, is visiting Egypt, Mozambique, Ghana, and Kenya, according to the article, to counter Chinese influence on the continent.   

The Japan Times published on 30 April 2023 an article titled "Kishida Starts African Tour Ahead of G7 Summit."

Although this article mentions the influence of China in Africa, the focus is more on Japan's concerns with Russia's invasion of Ukraine.