War with Iran and Implications for Africa: 7 May Panel Session

 The Global Affairs Forum of the Africa Governance Centre, an independent think tank based in Accra, Ghana, is hosting a panel discussion on 7 May dealing with the implications of the Iran conflict for global stability and African strategic interests.  It begins at 9:00 am Eastern Time in the United States and Canada.  You can register for the event at this link.  

The panelists are:

--Dr. Mohamed Ibn Chambas, High Representative for Silencing the Guns, African Union

--Amb. David Shinn, adjunct professor of international affairs, George Washington University

--Dr. Isaac Olawale Albert, professor of African history, peace and conflict studies, University of Ibadan

--Dr. Victor Kofi Afetoriom Doke, research fellow and lecturer, Kofi Annan International Peacekeeping Training Centre

--Dr. Paa Kwesi Wolseley Prah, postdoctoral fellow, Lingnan University, Hong Kong  

Tigray News Interview on Iran War and Horn of Africa

 Bisrat Kebede of Tigray News interviewed me on 9 March 2026; the title of the 50-minute video is "Iran Conflict: Sparking a Global Conflict." 

The first forty minutes dealt with the on-going war in Iran while the final ten minutes focused on the situation in the Horn of Africa.  I began my remarks on Iran with the caveat that this is not my area of specialization although I try to follow developments in the Middle East as well as the Horn of Africa and Red Sea region.  

Can BRICS Lead to a New World Security Order?

 The Diplomat published on 27 January 2026 a commentary titled "BRICS Holds a Maritime Exercise at the Indo-Atlantic Crossroads - Without India" by Vrinda Malik, University of Delhi.  

The BRICS--China, India, Russia, Brazil, South Africa, Egypt, Ethiopia, Indonesia, Iran and the UAE--held a maritime exercise in South African waters in January.  This was the first time the BRICS expanded into the security domain.

India was the only member to totally absent itself from the naval exercise, suggesting a refusal to be part of a security exercise led by China.  Enduring China-India rivalry limits the BRICS' ability to emerge as a cohesive force capable of shaping a new world order.  

African Analyst Sees China's Global Security Initiative as Too Ambiguous

 The China-Africa Security Radar posted on 4 January 2026 a commentary titled "Ambiguous by Design: China's Global Security Initiative and Africa's Security Dilemma" by Paa Kwesi Wolseley Prah.  

China's Global Security Initiative (GSI), now in its fourth year, offers a framework so ambiguous that it risks becoming what it claims to oppose -- another external power shaping African security on its own terms.  The GSI lacks clear implementation mechanisms, accountability structures, or frameworks addressing critical concerns about data sovereignty, surveillance technology governance, and whether security cooperation protects Chinese economic interests or addresses root causes of African instability.

Podcast with Germany's Special Envoy to the Horn of Africa

 The International Crisis Group posted on 8 December 2025 a 38-minute podcast titled "Global Disorder, Horn of Africa Turmoil.  Can Europe Keep Up?" with Alan Boswell and Heiko Nitzschke, Germany's special envoy for the Horn of Africa based in Nairobi.  

Maritime security in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden looms large in the policies of Germany and Europe.  The Horn of Africa is increasingly being impacted by multilateralism.  Europe is only one among many engaged players in the Horn.  African countries in the region ultimately will determine the role that Europe plays.  Europe's strength is the reliability of its interest and engagement.  Its priority for the conflict in Sudan is to achieve a ceasefire and ameliorate the humanitarian crisis.

US foreign aid cuts sent shockwaves through European and Horn of Africa capitals.  European countries are trying to fill some of the gaps left by the United States, but they too are turning increasingly to private investment.  US policy in the region has also become more unpredictable.  A new order is emerging in the Horn, especially with greater involvement of the Gulf States and Türkiye.  Finally, Nitzschke expressed concern there is now a serious risk of renewed conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea. 

China, India, and Brazil Compete in the Indian Ocean

 Foreign Policy Watchdog posted on 16 October 2025 a commentary titled "The Alckmin Accord: Redefining Strategic Alignment in the Indian Ocean."

Brazil's Vice President Geraldo Alckmin visited India and reportedly solidified a strategic Indian Ocean alliance built on mutual economic benefit and collaborative defense strategies.  This alliance developed as a counter to growing Chinese influence in the Indian Ocean.  All three countries are members of BRICS.  

China and Maritime Security in the Gulf of Guinea

 The South China Morning Post published on 9 December 2024 an article titled "Maritime Threats High on Agenda as Chinese Navy Hosts Gulf of Guinea Security Forum" by Seong Hyeon Choi.

China hosted a two-day forum on the security situation in the Gulf of Guinea in Shanghai for representative of 18 countries from the region.

Chinese Counterterrorism in Africa

 The Stimson Center published on 31 July 2024 an analysis titled "Chinese Counterterrorism in Africa" by Cobus van Staden.

China's approach to counterterrorism in Africa blurs the lines between crime and terrorism on both sides of the relationship.  This analysis emphasizes the role of non-state actors in the context of low state capacity and explains some of the factors that inform the limitations of Chinese counterterrorism approaches in Africa.

Red Sea Crisis Exposes Africa's Maritime Vulnerability

 The Africa Center for Strategic Studies published on 9 April 2024 an analysis titled "Red Sea and Western Indian Ocean Attacks Expose Africa's Maritime Vulnerability" by Francois Vrey, Stellenbosch University, and Mark Blaine, retired combat officer with the South African Navy.

African citizens are paying the price of delays, more expensive consumer goods, disruption to local economic entities, and polluted waterways from Houthi maritime attacks in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden.  Africa's ports are struggling to handle the current volume of freight and cope with the security impacts from these delays and late arrivals.  The crisis calls for a recalibration of African maritime security efforts to help keep the trade routes open, safeguard communications cables, and protect the rule of law.

Concern Over Rise in Somali Piracy

 Agence France Presse published on 14 February 2024 an article titled "Fear that Pirates Are Returning to Seas Off Somalia."

There has been a spike in armed seaborne attacks in waters off Somalia and the first capture of a foreign vessel by Somali pirates since 2017.

Somali Piracy Returns Off Horn of Africa

 CNBC posted on 7 February 2024 an article titled "Somali Pirates Are Back on the Attack at a Level Not Seen in Years, Adding to Global Shipping Threats" by Lori Ann LaRocco.

Over the past three months, there has been more piracy in the waters off the Horn of Africa than at any point in the last six years with high ransoms for seafarers or vessels, and robbing of ship passengers by pirates.

India Steps Up Competition with China in Tanzania

 The Diplomat published on 14 October 2023 a commentary titled "The China Factor in the India-Tanzania Strategic Partnership" by Raghvendra Kumar, an independent researcher who recently submitted his doctoral thesis at the University of Delhi.  

China's Belt and Road Initiative in Tanzania has contributed to economic and environmental vulnerabilities that, in turn, has created space for New Delhi to expand and consolidate its bilateral engagement with Dar es Salaam.  Tanzania is a reliable and trusted partner for India in its extended Indian Ocean maritime neighborhood.  

Maritime Competition in West African Waters

 The U.S. Naval War College posted early in 2023 a 48 minute podcast titled "Maritime Competition in African Waters" with Captain Kamal-Deen Ali (Ghana Navy retired) and questions by Isaac Kardon, U.S. Naval War College, and Naunihal Singh, National War College.  

Captain Ali responded to a wide range of questions related to maritime security in the Gulf of Guinea, including illegal fishing, piracy, food security, mining, and great power competition. He demonstrated a thorough understanding of all these issues.   

China's Pursuit of Food and Energy Security in the Indian Ocean

 The Stockholm-based Institute for Security & Development Policy published an issue brief on 30 June 2023 titled "China's Pursuit of Food and Energy Security in the Indian Ocean: Consequences for India's Development" by Neeraj Singh Manhas and Jay Maniyar.

China and India have given a high priority to achieving food and energy security.  China's engagement in the Indian Ocean is designed to have a strong foothold in the region and to fulfill its domestic demands for energy, food, raw materials, minerals, crude oil, and other essential commodities.

This issue brief, written from an Indian perspective, discusses whether a relentless pursuit of food and energy security in the Indian Ocean and Indo-Pacific regions by China will be a cause of concern for New Delhi and how it poses a strategic hindrance to the national and maritime security of India.  

Key Players in the Indian Ocean Region

 The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace published in June 2023 a major study titled "Mapping the Indian Ocean Region" by Darshana M. Baruah, Nitya Labh, and Jessica Greely.

The study treats the Indian Ocean region as one continuous theater and looks at the major players, security challenges, and other factors that shape the region.  It demonstrates how the Indian Ocean's economic, political, military, and geographic features interact to create a single geopolitical arena.  

Coincidentally, the U.S. Department of State posted on 30 May 2023 a fact sheet titled "U.S. Relationship with the Indian Ocean Rim Association and Commitment to the Indian Ocean Region."

The release of the fact sheet was tied to the reopening after 27 years of the U.S. embassy in the Seychelles and the visit to Seychelles, Mauritius, and Comoros by Deputy Secretary of State Richard Verma.

China/US/India Competition/Cooperation in the Indo/Pacific

 The National Defense University's Joint Force Quarterly published in its most recent edition an essay titled "Building an Enduring U.S.-India Partnership to Secure a Free, Open, and Prosperous Indo-Pacific Region" by Jeffrey D. Graham, U.S. Department of State.  

The author argues that China poses the greatest threat to a free and open Indo-Pacific region by using its growing economic and military power to deprive the United States of intellectual property and military secrets, to limit economic and security choices for countries in the region, and to attempt to rewrite the rules governing the Indo-Pacific.  By partnering with India, the United States can achieve the political aim of a free, open and prosperous Indo-Pacific region where a robust U.S.-India economic and security partnership counters China's aggressive behavior, disregard for international law and norms, and efforts to recast international institutions.

Russia's Growing Ambitions in the Red Sea Region

 The Royal United Services Institute published in September 2021 a policy brief titled "Russia's Growing Ambitions in the Red Sea Region" by Samuel Ramani, University of Oxford.

The paper addresses why Russia is paying greater attention to the Red Sea region.  It concludes that Russia's policy towards the Red Sea appears opportunistic.

Although Russia's commitment to the Red Sea region has grown since 2017, the foundations of its influence are shallow and remain vulnerable to competition and disruption from external stakeholders.  Except for arms sales and nuclear energy, Russia's commercial presence in the Red Sea region is small in scale, its cooperation with the West and China on maritime security issues is limited, and it has struggled to convert assertive rhetoric in the UNSC into influence over regional arbitration processes.  

Improving Security in the Western Indian Ocean

The Institute for Security Studies (ISS) published on 23 May 2018 an analysis titled "From Djibouti to Jeddah, the Western Indian Ocean Needs Security" by Christian Bueger, Cardiff University, and Timothy Walker, ISS.

Twenty littoral countries in southern and eastern Africa and the Arabian Peninsula adopted in 2009 the original Djibouti Code of Conduct that deals with maritime security threats. In 2017, they added the Jeddah Amendments. The guidelines now cover piracy, trafficking of arms and narcotics, illegal wildlife trade, illegal oil bunkering and theft, human trafficking and smuggling, and the illegal dumping of toxic waste. The issue now is how to move from declarations of intent to effective action. In addition, three key states--India, Pakistan and Iran--are not members of the amended Djibouti Code of Conduct.

From the Suez Canal to the Gulf of Aden

I contributed a chapter titled "From the Suez Canal to the Gulf of Aden" in a new book titled Maritime Security in the Indian Ocean and Western Pacific: Heritage and Contemporary Challenges edited by Howard M. Hensel and Amit Gupta (Routledge, 2018).

While the book explores maritime security issues throughout the Indian Ocean and Western Pacific, my chapter focuses only on the maritime and coastal space from the Mediterranean end of the Suez Canal, through the Red Sea, Gulf of Aqaba, Bab el-Mandeb, and into the Gulf of Aden.

Africa and China's Maritime Silk Road

China published on 20 June 2017 its most detailed explanation so far of the Maritime Silk Road titled "Vision for Maritime Cooperation under the Belt and Road Initiative."

The purpose of the document is to synchronize development plans and promote joint actions among countries along the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road. A key component as concerns Africa is the building of the China-Indian Ocean-Africa-Mediterranean Sea Blue Economic Passage. As for projects being implemented in Africa, the document cites the railway linking Addis Ababa and Djibouti, the railway between Mombasa and Nairobi, and the Suez Economic and Trade Cooperation Zone in Egypt. Interestingly, there is no mention of China's new military facility in Djibouti.

The document stresses development projects, infrastructure construction, marine ecoesystems, climate change, anti-poverty programs, maritime security, economic growth, and mechanisms for collaboration in creating the blue economy. Nearly all of these initiatives have been on-going components of China's policies in Africa and the specific projects cited for Africa predate the announcement of the Belt and Road Initiative three years ago.