Podcast with Germany's Special Envoy to the Horn of Africa

 The International Crisis Group posted on 8 December 2025 a 38-minute podcast titled "Global Disorder, Horn of Africa Turmoil.  Can Europe Keep Up?" with Alan Boswell and Heiko Nitzschke, Germany's special envoy for the Horn of Africa based in Nairobi.  

Maritime security in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden looms large in the policies of Germany and Europe.  The Horn of Africa is increasingly being impacted by multilateralism.  Europe is only one among many engaged players in the Horn.  African countries in the region ultimately will determine the role that Europe plays.  Europe's strength is the reliability of its interest and engagement.  Its priority for the conflict in Sudan is to achieve a ceasefire and ameliorate the humanitarian crisis.

US foreign aid cuts sent shockwaves through European and Horn of Africa capitals.  European countries are trying to fill some of the gaps left by the United States, but they too are turning increasingly to private investment.  US policy in the region has also become more unpredictable.  A new order is emerging in the Horn, especially with greater involvement of the Gulf States and Türkiye.  Finally, Nitzschke expressed concern there is now a serious risk of renewed conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea. 

China Is Gaslighting the Global South

Foreign Policy posted on 5 April 2024 a commentary titled "China Is Gaslighting the Developing World" by Robert A. Manning, Stimson Center. 

The author argues that it is unclear if the Global South really wants "a post-American future--let alone a Beijing-dominated one."  China's vision of multilateralism and equality are camouflage for its own hegemonic ambitions.

Most of China's initiatives are aimed at delegitimizing and displacing U.S. power.  China envisions the BRICS, for example, as "a Sino-centric network," a competitor or eventually even replacement for the Bretton Woods institutions.

The author concludes: "China appears, at best, an immature great power, its aspirations far exceeding its grasp and appeal.  Beijing's wannabe post-U.S. order faces a legitimacy deficit." 

China Elaborates on Its Global Security Initiative

 President Xi Jinping announced on 21 April 2022 a new Global Security Initiative (GSI) at the Boao Forum for Asia's annual conference in China.  This nebulous initiative raised more questions than it answered about China's "new" security policy.  

On 21 February 2023, China issued "The Global Security Initiative Concept Paper" that provided additional details about the initiative.  Foreign Minister Qin Gang summarized the concept paper by noting it lays out 20 priorities of cooperation for "upholding the UN's role in security governance; promoting coordination and sound interactions among major countries [not identified], facilitating peaceful settlement of hotspot issues through dialogue; tackling traditional and non-traditional security challenges; and strengthening the system and capacity for global security governance."

Comment:  There is relatively little that is "new" in the GSI, although several themes have evolved in the Xi Jinping era.  It mostly brings together long-standing Chinese foreign policy principles such as support for state sovereignty, non-interference in internal affairs, multilateralism, dialogue, and opposition to sanctions.  The concept paper underscores the centrality of Xi Jinping's "community of shared security for mankind" and support for the UN and African Union's peacekeeping mandate, peaceful coexistence, arms control, ASEAN-centered regional security cooperation, Africa-led counter-terrorism operations, UN-led fight against global terrorism, international security governance on artificial intelligence and outer space, global food and energy security, the UN Convention against Transnational Organized Crime, and cooperation to address climate change.

China's goal is clearly to place security issues in forums where China has more influence or has established mechanisms where it has control such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and the China-Horn of Africa Peace, Governance and Development Conference.  

Impact of China's Domestic Governance on Cooperation with Africa and CEE Countries

 The Journal of Contemporary China just published a study titled "The Domestic Mechanisms of China's Vertical Multilateralism: The FOCAC and the 16+1 Format Case Studies" by Dominik Mierzejewski, Bartosz Kowalski and Jaroslaw Jura.  

The study concludes that China's engagement in multilateral cooperation with Africa and Central and Eastern Europe has to a considerable extent, mirrored mechanisms in China's domestic governance: generating enthusiasm and mobilization through slogan politics and informal political networks, which are influenced by the process of centralization of power and the coordination of horizontal competition with Beijing in a dominant position.  However, due to different cultural backgrounds, the political landscape, and the economic environment, the mechanisms of the FOCAC and China-CEE cooperation are implemented differently and with different intensity to those in Chinese internal affairs.