Analysis and Recommendations for a Post-Conflict Somalia

 The Heritage Institute for Policy Studies published in June 2025 a document titled "Somalia's Post-Conflict Experience: Political Rifts, Security Challenges, and Social Crises."

It contains 6 conference papers by different authors from the December 2022 Annual Forum for Ideas held in Djibouti and hosted by the Heritage Institute for Policy Studies. The first section examines governance crises, security threats, political divisions and three key types of conflict that continue to shape the political and social realities of post-civil war Somalia.  The second section presents viable solutions aimed at fostering reconciliation and social cohesion.

A key lesson to be drawn from this analysis is that the interplay between governance disputes, militant insurgencies, and social intolerance among the people demonstrates the complexity of Somalia's challenges.  

Any Hope Left for Diplomacy in Sudan?

 The International Crisis Group posted on 25 April 2025 a 25-minute podcast titled "Any Hope Left for Diplomacy in Sudan?" with Alan Boswell and Abdul Mohammed, long time follower of Sudanese issues. 

The war in Sudan is effectively eliminating the concept of a Sudanese state.  Sudan has been at war with itself since independence.  Western Sudan is becoming integrated into the Sahel region and eastern Sudan is part of the Horn of Africa. One cannot rule out partition of the country.

What is needed now is a full-time mediation effort led by the African Union with complete bilateral and multilateral support.  Sudan can be pieced together again because most Sudanese people want unity.

Podcast on US Elections, Africa Policy, and Horn of Africa

 Tigrai Press posted on 28 July 2024 a one-hour podcast with me hosted by Bisrat Kebede.  The conversation focuses initially on the election campaign between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, implications of the election for Africa policy, and Project 2025.  The remainder of the podcast deals with many of the ongoing issues in the Horn of Africa.   

Podcast on African Conflict and Development

 The UK-based Centre for African Conflict and Development posted on 22 July 2024 a 44-minute podcast with me titled "Austerity Measures, Right to Protest and Police in Kenya, Africa" hosted by Michael Nwankpa.  

Although focused on Kenya, the host asked questions on a variety of topics ranging across Africa allowing me to offer views on numerous topics based on my association with Africa dating back to the early 1960s.  

US Special Envoy for Sudan Discusses Prospects for Peace

 The International Crisis Group posted on 15 April 2024 a 38-minute podcast titled "New U.S. Envoy on Ending Sudan's War" with Tom Perriello, U.S. Special Envoy for Sudan, and Alan Boswell.  

Perriello said the immediate goal is to resume talks in Jeddah hosted by Saudi Arabia and the United States with key actors in the dispute and to seek agreement for an end to the fighting and eventually a return to establishing a civilian government in Sudan.  The talks need to be inclusive and consolidate earlier peace processes.

A split or divided Sudan would not be a good outcome.  The major challenge to peace is the lack of trust among the belligerents and ensuring that Sudan's civil society is part of the process.  Perriello is hopeful the sharply deteriorated humanitarian situation will serve as an incentive for all actors to make a more concentrated effort to end the fighting.

Sudan after a Year of Civil War

 The International Crisis Group (ICG) published on 11 April 2024 a statement titled "Sudan: A Year of War."

The ICG offers a summary over the past year of the conflict in Sudan between the Sudan Armed Forces and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces.

Nigerian Researcher Analyzes Ethiopia-Somaliland Deal

 The Al Jazeera Centre for Studies, an independent research institution, published on 1 April 2024 an analysis titled "The Ethiopian-Somali Red Sea Agreement in the Context of the Geopolitical Rivalry in the Horn of Africa" by Hakeem Alade Najimdeen, a Nigerian researcher.

A West African researcher provides an analysis of the controversial and oft discussed Memorandum of Understanding between Ethiopia and Somaliland.  

An Update on the Ethiopia-Somaliland Deal

 The International Crisis Group (ICG) published on 6 March 2024 a Q & A titled "The Stakes in the Ethiopia-Somaliland Deal."

The Q and A with ICG experts covers a wide range of issues.  The one new significant fact to come out of the discussion is that the proposed Ethiopian naval base on Somaliland's Gulf of Aden coast is expected to constitute 20 square kilometers of land and sea at an undetermined location rather than the earlier stated 20 kilometers of coastline.  This makes more sense as the 20 kilometers of coastline never specified how deep it would go into Somaliland or how much water area it would occupy.   

Ethiopia-Somaliland Deal Going Forward

 The International Crisis Group posted on 7 February 2024 a 36-minute podcast titled "Somalia, Somaliland and the Explosive Port Deal" with Alan Boswell and Omar Mahmood.

The discussion focused on the reaction of Somalia, the possibility that the deal may contribute to conflict in the region, and the position of Ethiopia and Somaliland going forward.  From Somaliland's perspective the Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) is straightforward acceptance of a 50-year lease for a naval base on its coast in exchange for Ethiopian recognition of Somaliland. 

Details of the MOU have still not been made public.  At this point, it seems to be more of a declaration of intent.  For example, there is no agreement where Ethiopia's naval base will be located, although it apparently will not be at Somaliland's current port of Berbera.   

Italian Think Tank Analyzes Ethiopia-Somaliland Deal

 The Italian Institute for International Political Studies published on 30 January 2024 an analysis titled "On the Edge: The Ethiopia-Somaliland MOU" by Aleksi Ylonen.  

This is an analysis from the perspective of an Italian think tank of the Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) between Ethiopia and Somaliland.  The MOU says Ethiopia will consider recognition of Somaliland in exchange for port access and a 50-year lease of land for a military base on Somaliland's Gulf of Aden coast.  

UN Security Council Redirects Dispute Over Ethiopia-Somaliland Deal to IGAD or AU

 Somaliland's Saxafi Media published on 4 February 2024 an article titled "UN Security Council Redirects Somaliland-Ethiopia Deal Dispute to IGAD, AU."

An Ethiopian official said the UN Security Council has redirected Somalia's request to consider the Ethiopia-Somaliland deal to the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) or the African Union for resolution.  Ethiopia than requested that IGAD host a summit to discuss the issue.  The official added that Ethiopia's commitment to realizing sea access is second only to completion of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam.

Ongoing Atrocities in Sudan's Darfur Region

 Refugees International published on 1 February 2024 a detailed report titled "Bearing Witness: Atrocities and Looming Hunger in Darfur" by Daniel P. Sullivan.  

Sudan now has the largest number (more than 10 million) of internally displaced persons (IDPs) in the world.  Refugees from Darfur in Chad are overwhelming the humanitarian response.  In December 2023, the United States made an official atrocity designation for Sudan.  

Analysis of the Ethiopia-Somaliland Memorandum of Understanding

 The Elephant published on 23 January 2024 an analysis titled "Unveiling the Ethiopia-Somaliland MOU: Hopes and Uncertainties" by Mehari Taddele Maru, European University Institute in Florence, Italy.  

Although the text of the Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) between Ethiopia and Somaliland has not been made public, based on what is known the author analyzes the significance of the document for a wide variety of interested parties.  

The author concludes that, for Ethiopia, the MOU diverts attention from internal conflicts, famine, and economic woes.  For Somaliland, it potentially opens doors to international recognition, legitimizing President Muse Bihi Abdi's government, but it may also intensify conflicts in areas such as Laascaanood and Sool.  For Somalia, it represents a violation of its sovereignty and territorial integrity, necessitating an outright rejection of the MOU and the seeking of support from regional allies such as Egypt, Eritrea, and Saudi Arabia.

Sudan: Compromise Is Not on the Table for Discussion

 The Economist published on 17 January 2024 an article titled "Why Diplomacy over Sudan, Africa's Enduring Nightmare, Is Stuck."

Following recent successful visits to Uganda, Ethiopia, Djibouti, Kenya, South Africa, and Rwanda, Rapid Support Forces paramilitary leader Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo is winning both the diplomatic battle and the war on the ground in Sudan.  Dagalo senses victory and is in no mood to compromise with the Sudan Armed Forces.

Sudan's Calamitous Civil War

 The International Crisis Group (ICG) published on 9 January 2024 a commentary titled "Sudan's Calamitous Civil War: A Chance to Draw Back from the Abyss."

As Sudan's civil war expands to the east, the ICG argues the international community should take even greater efforts to end the conflict.

Comment:  While this is the role of the ICG and all reasonable people would like to see an end to the mayhem in Sudan, neither the leadership of the Sudan Armed Forces nor the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces currently shows any willingness to accept in any meaningful way international mediation.  The international effort should continue, but there is little reason to expect any progress at this time.  

Ethiopia-Eritrea Relations and Scenarios for the Future

 The Emirates Policy Center, an independent think tank based in Abu Dhabi, UAE, published on 27 December 2023 an analysis titled "Ethiopia-Eritrea Tensions and Likely Scenarios."  

The Center believes Ethiopia's approach to relations with Eritrea is based on two principles: First, Asmara's significant political influence in Ethiopia needs to be curbed.  Second, Eritrea is the most fitting neighbor to fulfill Addis Ababa's geopolitical maritime ambitions.  For its part, Eritrea believes that Addis Ababa acts like a hegemon, trying to isolate Eritrea politically.

There are three potential scenarios for the future of Ethiopia-Eritrea relations: sliding into war, soft containment, or stalemate.  

Ethiopia-Somaliland Deal Alters Regional Geopolitics

 The American Enterprise Institute's Critical Threats Project published on 4 January 2024 an analysis titled "Salafi-Jihadi Movement Update Special Edition: Ethiopia-Somaliland Port Deal Strains Horn of Africa Counterterrorism Cooperation and Alters Red Sea Geopolitics" by Liam Karr.  

The author concluded the Ethiopia-Somaliland deal has severely strained Somali-Ethiopian relations and increased anti-Ethiopian sentiment in southern Somalia, which will likely weaken regional counterterrorism cooperation and energize al-Shabaab.  Djibouti, Egypt, and Eritrea will likely view an Ethiopian base in the Gulf of Aden as a threat, while the UAE's strong ties with the Ethiopian government will strengthen the Emiratis' position in its regional rivalry with other Gulf countries such as Saudi Arabia and Qatar.

Sudan's Competing Generals Seek International Support

 Aljazeera published on 2 January 2024 an article titled "Sudan's Feared Military Leader Signals Ambition to Rule the Country."

Sudan's competing generals, Sudan Armed Forces leader Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and paramilitary Rapid Support Forces leader Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, have been travelling in the region seeking support to control all of Sudan.  Neither one appears to have much interest in peace talks or mediation.  

Sudan's Rapid Support Force Leader Seeks Support in East Africa

 Aljazeera published on 28 December 2023 an article titled "Leader of Sudan's RSF Visits Ethiopia in Rare Foreign Trip as War Rages."

Rapid Support Force leader Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo has completed visits with the leaders of Uganda and Ethiopia and reportedly will visit Kenya seeking support from the leaders of Intergovernmental Authority for Development (IGAD) members before IGAD holds a Sudan peace conference in Djibouti.

Aljazeera Podcast on War in Sudan

 Aljazeera posted on 20 December 2023 a 28-minute podcast titled "Where Does the Conflict in Sudan Stand after Eight Months?" with panelists Hamid Khalafallah, Sudan researcher, Alan Boswell, International Crisis Group, and me.  

The discussion focused on the current situation in Sudan and the prospects for achieving peace.  There was agreement that current peace talks between the Sudan Armed Forces and Rapid Support Forces are going nowhere.  The situation is bleak and there is no good prognosis for Sudan's future.