The American Enterprise Institute's Critical Threats Project published on 4 January 2024 an analysis titled "Salafi-Jihadi Movement Update Special Edition: Ethiopia-Somaliland Port Deal Strains Horn of Africa Counterterrorism Cooperation and Alters Red Sea Geopolitics" by Liam Karr.
The author concluded the Ethiopia-Somaliland deal has severely strained Somali-Ethiopian relations and increased anti-Ethiopian sentiment in southern Somalia, which will likely weaken regional counterterrorism cooperation and energize al-Shabaab. Djibouti, Egypt, and Eritrea will likely view an Ethiopian base in the Gulf of Aden as a threat, while the UAE's strong ties with the Ethiopian government will strengthen the Emiratis' position in its regional rivalry with other Gulf countries such as Saudi Arabia and Qatar.
