The Emirates Policy Center, an independent think tank based in Abu Dhabi, UAE, published on 27 December 2023 an analysis titled "Ethiopia-Eritrea Tensions and Likely Scenarios."
The Center believes Ethiopia's approach to relations with Eritrea is based on two principles: First, Asmara's significant political influence in Ethiopia needs to be curbed. Second, Eritrea is the most fitting neighbor to fulfill Addis Ababa's geopolitical maritime ambitions. For its part, Eritrea believes that Addis Ababa acts like a hegemon, trying to isolate Eritrea politically.
There are three potential scenarios for the future of Ethiopia-Eritrea relations: sliding into war, soft containment, or stalemate.
