Any Hope Left for Diplomacy in Sudan?

 The International Crisis Group posted on 25 April 2025 a 25-minute podcast titled "Any Hope Left for Diplomacy in Sudan?" with Alan Boswell and Abdul Mohammed, long time follower of Sudanese issues. 

The war in Sudan is effectively eliminating the concept of a Sudanese state.  Sudan has been at war with itself since independence.  Western Sudan is becoming integrated into the Sahel region and eastern Sudan is part of the Horn of Africa. One cannot rule out partition of the country.

What is needed now is a full-time mediation effort led by the African Union with complete bilateral and multilateral support.  Sudan can be pieced together again because most Sudanese people want unity.

Can Somalia Ever Win against Al-Shabaab?

Foreign Policy published on 19 October 2017 a commentary titled "Can Somalia Ever Win against Al-Shabaab?" by Alex de Waal, executive director of the World Peace Institute.

The author concludes that the Somali government must cultivate a credible Islamist constituency of its own, winning over most of the political and financial backers of the Islamic Courts Union, the Islamist movement that briefly took control of much of the country in 2006 and from which al-Shabaab emerged.

Somalia Needs More Action, Less Lip Service

The Institute for Security Studies (ISS) published on 17 May 2017 a commentary titled "Somalia Needs More Action, Less Lip Service" by Meressa K. Dessu and Omar S. Mahmood.

Following the London Conference on Somalia, the authors argue that implementation of decisions also requires international cooperation and buy-in from all partners. They say that countries pursue independent security interests in Somalia, such as the United States' focus on counterterrorism or Kenya's desire for a buffer region along its border, and may not always put their own interests aside in the spirit of increased cooperation.

The Future of the AU Mission in Somalia

The Institute for Security Studies published on 3 May 2017 a commentary titled "Will the AU Coordinate the New 'Save Somalia' Campaign?"

The focus is on the future of the African Union and the AMISOM mission in Somalia. Will AMISOM add troops over the short term before it decides to pull out of Somalia?

Prospects for London Conference on Somalia

The International Crisis Group (ICG) published on 10 May 2017 a statement titled "The London Conference and Prospects for Peace and Stability in Somalia."

The London Conference on Somalia takes place on 11 May. The ICG concludes that if Somalia's new government fails to fulfil hopes of better governance, less corruption, more work on reconciliation and addressing conflicts among federal states, it should come as no surprise were London to host another conference with similar aims in 2023.

London Conference on Somalia

The International Crisis Group published on 30 April 2017 a commentary titled "Somalia: Transforming Hope into Stability."

It looks at several key issues concerning peace in Somalia prior to the 11 May 2017 London Conference on Somalia.

Somalia and Regional Issues

The International Crisis Group published on 22 February 2017 a commentary titled "The Regional Risks to Somalia's Moment of Hope."

The commentary concludes that recently elected President Farmajo must first manage huge expectations and then address delicate relations with neighboring Ethiopia and Kenya.

Somalia and Somaliland Restart Dialogue

IRIN News published on 13 May 2016 an article titled "Somalia and Somaliland Restart Dialogue" by Mohamed Amin Jibril. In the article, I emphasize the importance of dialogue for the sake of better mutual understanding.

Somalia, Somaliland and the Future

Edward Paice, director of the Africa Research Institute, an independent, non-partisan think tank in London, recently posted two commentaries on the future of Somalia and Somaliland.  One dated 8 May 2013 is titled "Negotiating Peace in Somalia--An Insight from Somaliland" and the other dated 9 May 2013 is titled "Why Elections Matter in Somaliland." 

Somalia Conference 2013 in London

Somalia and the United Kingdom hosted a conference on Somalia in London on 7 May 2013.  The participants released a comprehensive communique at the end of the conference. 

While the conference was another positive step forward, what is important now for the Somali Federal Government is to spend more time building political support and federalism inside Somalia and less time at international conferences and travel to foreign capitals. 

Comment on Somalia-Somaliland Dialogue

Yusuf M. Hasan of the Somaliland Sun asked me to comment on a series of questions dealing with the ongoing dialogue between Somalia and Somaliland.  The Somaliland Sun published the interview on 5 May 2013 under the heading "Somaliland: 'The Ankara Communique Is a Commitment for Continued Dialogue' Amb. Shinn." 

Somalia's Economic Recovery

Mohamud M. Uluso published a piece in the 2 May 2013 Pambazuka News titled "Somalia's Priority: National Integration for Economic Recovery."  It looks at the macroeconomic issues that need to be addressed urgently in Somalia. 

Somalia: the Role of Civil Society

On 7 May 2013 the Federal Government of Somalia and the UK Government will co-host a second international conference in London on Somalia.  Many Somalis believe that decisions which directly affect their lives are driven by an international agenda, and involve little local consultation.  This lack of ownership contributes to a sense of alienation from the decision-making process. 

Saferworld, an independent London-based organization working to prevent violent conflict, published on 26 April 2013 a briefing titled "Civil Society Voices: Recommendations for the May 2013 London Conference on Somalia."  The briefing summarizes the results of two consultations concerning themes to be discussed at the London Conference with the Puntland Non-State Actors Association in Garowe and the Somalia Southern and Central Non-State Actors group in Mogadishu. 

Challenges Facing New Somali Government

Laura Hammond, School of Oriental and African Studies at the University of London, published an article titled "Somalia Rising: Things Are Starting to Change for the World's Longest Failed State" in volume 7, issue 1 (2013) of the Journal of Eastern African Studies.

The article examines some of the challenges facing the new Somali government and assesses the dynamics which allowed the emergence of relative newcomers into important roles, especially President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud.  She wonders if the recent optimism is justified and will it be sustained? 

Two Views of Somali Political Process

E-International Relations, a website for students of international politics, recently posted two analyses of the Somali political process. The first was cautiously optimistic while the second described Somalia's constitution-making process as "deeply flawed."

The first analysis is dated 28 July 2012 and titled "Where to for Somali State-building since London and Istanbul Conferences?" by Michael Walls, director of research for the Development Planning Unit at University College London. Click here to read his analysis.

The second analysis is dated 2 September 2012 and titled "Revisiting the UN-Controlled Constitution-Making Process for Somalia" by Afyare Abdi Elmi, assistant professor of international politics at Qatar University. Click here to read his analysis.

The Somali Roadmap: Where Does It End?

Chatham House in London published in June 2012 an analysis titled End of the Roadmap: Somalia after the London and Istanbul Conferences. Jason Mosley, an associate fellow at Chatham House, concluded that the roadmap will probably continue towards its goal of handing over to a caretaker administration on 20 August 2012. The end of the roadmap will not, however, signal an end to Somalia's transition. The new administration will face many of the same challenges threatening the TFG, and some other generated by the roadmap process itself.

Click here to read the analysis.

Somalia and Somaliland: Chevening House Declaration

Delegations representing the Somali Transitional Federal Government (TFG) and the government of Somaliland met at Chevening House in London on 20-21 June as part of a dialogue that began at the London Conference and continued at Istanbul II.

The Chevening House Declaration is unexceptional. It primarily commits both sides to continue the dialogue and cooperate in the fight against terrorism, extremism, crime, piracy, illegal fishing and toxic waste dumping. Importantly, however, it suggests that both sides are willing to continue the talks.

Click here to read the brief declaration and click here to read a congratulatory statement by UK Foreign Secretary William Hague.

For a commentary on the declaration by Yusuf M. Hasan in the Somaliland Sun, click here.

Somalia after the London Conference

Knox Chitiyo, an Africa Fellow at Chatham House in London and an Associate at the Brenthurst Foundation in South Africa, offered seven ideas as a followup to the London Conference on Somalia. You can read his suggestions here.

Transitional Federal Government (TFG) Prime Minister Abdiweli Mohamed Ali also commented extensively on the future of Somalia after the London Conference in remarks at Chatham House. You can read his remarks here.

London Conference on Somalia

The Somaliland Sun and Geeska Afrika asked me to comment on several questions concerning the 23 February conference in London on Somalia. My responses to the Somaliland Sun are included here and in Somali to Geeska Afrika here.

Whither Somalia?

Morten Boas and Mohamed Husein Gaas released in February 2012 a brief paper titled What To Do with Somalia? on the Fafo website. Fafo was founded by the Norwegian Confederation of Trade Unions. It is an independent and multidisciplinary research foundation focusing on social welfare and trade policy, labor and living conditions, public health, migration, transnational security, and development issues.

Boas and Gaas wrote their piece in advance of the 23 February conference on Somalia in London. They make the argument for a decentralized approach to state building in Somalia.