Building Resilient Cities in Somalia

 The Heritage Institute for Policy Studies published in December 2025 a study titled "Building Resilient Cities: Environmental Protection and Construction Safety in Somalia's Urban Development" by Abdullahi Ali Mohamed.  

The study highlights how unregulated construction, environmental degradation and intensifying climate shocks are reinforcing urban fragility amid weak institutional capacity.  It outlines an integrated policy framework focused on sustainable urban planning, professionalizing the construction sector, and strengthening climate resilience.  

US Drone Operations in Somalia

Foreign Policy published on 2 July 2015 an article titled "Exclusive: U.S. Operates Drones from Secret Bases in Somalia" by Ty McCormick.  The article offers new information on U.S. counterterrorism operations in Somalia, including a drone base in the southern port city of Kismayo. 

Somalia and Federalism

The Heritage Institute for Policy Studies issued a policy brief in February 2015 titled "Federal Somalia: Not If but How." 

Based on a survey of 213 Somalis in five cities, the study concluded that the majority view federalism as the most suitable form of governance to decentralize Somalia because it facilitates reasonable power sharing among clans, enables regional autonomy and ultimately leads to a reduction of conflict.  A substantial majority views the current federation process as deeply flawed because it is largely an elite-driven and externally facilitated scheme that promotes clan identity at the expense of citizenship. 

Kenya at War with Al-Shabaab

African Affairs published in January 2015 an article titled "Kenya at War: Al-Shabaab and Its Enemies in Eastern Africa" by David M. Anderson, professor at the University of Warwick, and Jacob McKnight, post-doctoral researcher at the University of Oxford African Health Systems Collaboration.

The article reviews the background to Kenya's invasion of southern Somalia, Operation Linda Nchi, and the prosecution of the war by Kenya's Defense Forces up to the capture of the city of Kismayo and the contest to control its lucrative port and the charcoal trade.  The authors then discuss al-Shabaab's response, showing how the  movement has reinvented itself to take the struggle into Kenya.  They conclude that while the military defeat of al-Shabaab in southern Somalia seems inevitable, such a victory may become irrelevant to Kenya's ability to negotiate a political settlement with its Somali and wider Muslim communities at home. 

Critical Analysis of Kenya and Ras Kamboni Militia in Jubaland

Pambazuka News published on 4 July 2013 a piece titled "Somalia: Raskamboni Militia Challenges US, UN Credibility" by Mohamud M. Uluso.  It is highly critical of the role of the Ras Kamboni militia and Kenyan forces in Jubaland.

Developments in Jubaland

The American Enterprise Institute Critical Threats Project published on 10 June 2013 an analysis titled "Challenges to America's Counterterrorism Strategy in Somalia" on the impact of developments in Jubaland on the situation generally in Somalia.  The authors are Breuk Bass and Katherine Zimmerman.

The analysis concludes that while recent advances against al-Qaeda's affiliate in Somalia, al-Shabaab, have received international praise and established relative stability throughout much of Somalia, the current situation in Kismayo may threaten any new gains.  The potential for the outbreak of inter-clan fighting between the four declared presidents of Jubaland threatens the peace throughout the country.   

Somalia: Another View on Jubaland

The Heritage Institute for Policy Studies (HIPS), a Mogadishu-based independent, non-partisan, non-profit policy research and analysis organization, has just published a paper titled "The Kismaayo Crisis: Options for Compromise."

The paper argues that the growing crisis in Jubaland has the potential to undermine the Somali Federal Government (SFG) and threatens to bring Somalia back to the brink of civil war.  On 15 May 2013, the Kenyan-backed Ras Kamboni group declared the formation of Jubaland by incorporating Lower Juba, Middle Juba and Gedo regions.  But al-Shabaab still controls Middle Juba and the SFG recently established a local administration in Gedo.   HIPS concludes the viability of Jubaland state is tenuous.

A window of opportunity remains for an amicable settlement of the crisis.  Compromise is the only way forward.  All key players have legitimate concerns but their hardline positions are counterproductive.  HIPS lays out a series of steps for dealing with the crisis. 

Somalia: Centralism, Federalism and Jubaland

The creation of the State of Jubaland within the Federal Republic of Somalia has resulted in Somali analysis, sometimes heated, pro and con.  See the negative posting below for 16 May by Muhamud M. Uluso on the subject.  Abdighani Hirad offered his positive views on 17 May 2013 in a piece titled "Jubaland State of Somalia: A Model State to Somalia." 

So long as this debate remains civil and peaceful and is undertaken by Somalis, who must live with the results, it is a good thing. 

Challenges Facing New Somali Government

Laura Hammond, School of Oriental and African Studies at the University of London, published an article titled "Somalia Rising: Things Are Starting to Change for the World's Longest Failed State" in volume 7, issue 1 (2013) of the Journal of Eastern African Studies.

The article examines some of the challenges facing the new Somali government and assesses the dynamics which allowed the emergence of relative newcomers into important roles, especially President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud.  She wonders if the recent optimism is justified and will it be sustained? 

Somalia and Jubaland

The Institute for Security Studies (ISS) in Pretoria published an analysis on 11 April 2013 titled "Tensions Over the Jubaland Process in Somalia Could Embolden Al-Shabaab."  The author is Andrews Atta-Asamoah, senior researcher at ISS. 

The analysis highlights the tension between the Kismayo-based Kenyan forces and Ras Kamboni militia, on the one hand, and the Somali Federal Government (SFG) in Mogadishu, on the other.  Atta-Asamoah concludes that the inability of the SFG to exercise authority over the Kismayo process is undermining its influence in other areas of Somalia.  He adds that the SFG is on a collision course with the regional interests of Kenya, Ethiopia and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development. 

Kenya's Intervention in Somalia

The International Crisis Group (ICG) published a report on 15 February 2012 titled The Kenyan Military Intervention in Somalia. It points out that the intervention in October 2011 into Somalia's Juba Valley marked a radical departure for a country that has never sent its soldiers abroad to fight. Military leaders were apparently convinced it would be a quick campaign, but the Kenyan Defense Forces quickly ran into difficulties in unfamiliar terrain.

The ICG believes the Kenyan government is unlikely to heed any calls for a troop pullout; it has invested too much, and pride is at stake. The ICG urges that Kenya avoid a prolonged occupation of southern Somalia, lest it turn local Somali opinion against the intervention and galvanize an armed resistance that could be co-opted by al-Shabaab.

There is a real prospect, says the ICG, that Kenya will find itself with unpredictable allies, enmeshed in a protracted counter-insurgency campaign against a resilient and experienced enemy. Al-Shabaab is trying to exploit Kenyan-Somali grievances against Nairobi and making pan-Somali appeals, although without much success so far.

The ICG concluded that Kenya's hasty, insufficiently prepared decision to intervene militarily in Somalia will have profound consequences for stability in both countries. Al-Shabaab now clearly intends not only to destabilize the North Eastern Province, but also to undermine Kenya's social harmony. Unless there is a settlement in southern Somalia, Nairobi cannot expect stability in its own border regions; indeed, instability might also reach the center.