Chinese Stadium Diplomacy in Ethiopia: Cost Overruns and Delays

 The Diplomat published on 31 January 2025 a commentary titled "Chinese Stadium Diplomacy in Africa, Pt 2: Adey Ababa Stadium in Ethiopia" by Istvan Tarrosy and Zoltan Voros. 

The 62,000-seat capacity stadium in Addis Ababa has faced problems since its initiation in 2016.  Chinese State Construction Engineering Corporation (CSCEC) was supposed to finish the stadium in September 2022.  Cost overruns and currency devaluation caused disagreements that led to termination of the contract with CSCEC in February 2023.  Ethiopia signed a new contract with China Communications Construction Company.  Although the project has restarted, cost questions remain, and progress is slow.  

Podcast on China's FDI and Loans to Africa

 Deutsche Welle posted on 30 August 2024 a 13-minute podcast titled "Can China Regain Its Foothold in Africa?" with me and narrated by Clifford Coonan.

As the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation approaches in early September, Deutsche Welle asked for my comments on China's Belt and Road program in Africa and especially the current status of Chinese foreign direct investment and loans to the continent.   

Ethiopia to Build Biggest Airport in Africa

 Nanyang Technological University in Singapore published on 23 August 2024 an article titled "Ethiopia Awards Contract to Construct the Biggest Airport in Africa."

Ethiopian Airlines awarded a contract to a consortium led by Dar, a Middle East-based architecture and engineering consultancy, to develop what will become the largest airport in Africa located 40 kilometers from Addis Ababa.  The first phase will cost $6 billion and be operational in 2029.

Chinese Workers in Africa Reach New Low at Least Since 2009

 The China Africa Research Initiative at John Hopkins University's School of Advanced International Studies posted in March 2024 numbers on Chinese workers in Africa from 2009 through 2022.  

By the end of 2022, the number of Chinese workers in Africa hit a low since 2009 of 88,371.  This is down from a peak in 2015 of 263,696.  At the end of 2022, the top five countries with Chinese workers were the DRC, Algeria, Egypt, Nigeria, and Angola.  These five countries accounted for 42 percent of Chinese workers in Africa.

These figures include Chinese workers sent to work on Chinese companies' construction contracts in Africa and Chinese workers hired for other labor services who are reported by Chinese contractors.  The numbers do NOT include informal migrants such as traders and shopkeepers.

Comment:  There are no reliable figures for the number of Chinese traders, shopkeepers, and temporary residents such as professional personnel and students in Africa.  But the figure for the number of workers in Africa significantly understates the total amount of Chinese residing in or visiting Africa at any given time.  The COVID-19 pandemic probably contributed to a large reduction in the number of Chinese residing in Africa and it is doubtful that they have subsequently returned.  

China Global Investment Tracker

 The American Enterprise Institute maintains the China Global Investment Tracker, a data set for Chinese investments and construction projects country-by-country from 2005 through 2023.  

Chinese Company Suspends Work on Kenyan Road for Lack of Payment

 Kenya's Business Daily published on 27 November  2023 an article titled "Chinese Firm Suspends Work on Kenol Road over Sh900m Delay" by Bonface Otieno.  

China's Jiangxi Transportation Engineering Group has suspended construction on a section of a road in Kenya following a delay in payment by the government of Kenya and the African Development Bank.  The road is part of a Pan-African artery connecting Cairo to Cape Town.  

Morocco-China Relations

 The ChinaMed Project published on 26 October 2023 a commentary titled "Morocco Looks at Its Relations with China: Between the Earthquake and the Diplomatic Celebrations" by Mariateresa Natuzzi and Lea Gebuhrer.

Morocco is actively seeking to strengthen its ties with China but recognizes the continued importance of the European market for its economy.  Since 2001, Chinese exports to Morocco have risen sharply while Moroccan exports to China have risen only modestly, resulting in huge trade deficits for Morocco.  

Chinese Environmental, Social, and Governance Practices in Africa

 The South African Institute of International Affairs published in August 2023 a study titled "Elevating ESG: Empirical Lessons on Environmental, Social and Governance Implementation of Chinese Projects in Africa" by Cecilia Springer, Keyi Tang, Christoph Nedopil, Chris Alden, and Cobus van Staden.  

The study assesses the environmental, social, and governance (ESG) practices of Chinese financed infrastructure projects in Egypt, Nigeria, and Ethiopia within the context of the United Nations 2030 Sustainable Development Goals.  It concludes that Chinese financiers and regulators should take steps to guarantee awareness of and compliance with ESG rules by small- and medium-sized Chinese companies operating in Africa.  

China's Belt and Road Engagement in Sub-Saharan Africa 1st half of 2023

 The Fudan University-based Green Finance & Development Center published on 1 August 2023 a report titled "China Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) Investment Report 2023 H1" by Christoph Nedopil Wang.  

During the first half of 2023, major growth areas of Chinese engagement were Namibia, Eritrea, and Tanzania, making Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) the fastest growing area for global  BRI engagement.  SSA accounted for 39 percent of global Chinese BRI construction engagement in the first half of 2023.  

China in the Maghreb

 The Madrid-based Elcano Royal Institute published on 30 June 2023 an analysis titled "China in the Maghreb: Engagement, Perceptions and Prospects" by Tin Hinane El Kadi, London School of Economics and Political Science.    

Since the beginning of this century China has significantly increased its economic and political engagement in the Maghreb, although there are unequal trade patterns and investment remains minimal.  Nevertheless, China provides an opportunity for the Maghreb to expand and modernize its domestic infrastructure, while reducing its reliance on the West.  

Decentralizing Afro-Chinese Relations (in French, English and Spanish)

 The most recent edition of Revue Internationale des Etudes du Developpement is devoted to the topic "Relations afro-chinoises: decentrer l'analyse."

 The articles in this special issue offer a decentering of the approach to Afro-Chinese relations through an analysis of Africans taking an active role in order to assess to what extent the Chinese presence has responded or not to African requests, and how African actors have responded.  

The articles deal with China's role in Ghana's free zones, the role of executives in Chinese construction subsidiaries in Algeria, Chinese medical teams in Cameroon, the promotion of kung fu in Cameroon and Gabon, and testimonials of French-speaking African students in Chengdu.  

Chinese Companies in Angola and Ethiopia Pay Wages Comparable to Other Firms

 Quartz published on 19 April 2023 an article titled "A Surprising Finding about How Chinese Companies Pay in Africa" by Cassie Werber.

Chinese companies have earned a reputation for paying local workers badly in comparison to other companies.  A recent academic study found the reputation is undeserved.  The study suirveyed workers in manufacturing and construction at Chinese-owned and other foreign owned firms in Angola and Ethiopia, as well as at locally owned businesses.  There is no clear evidence that Chinese firms consistently pay less than comparator firms in the same country.

Chinese-financed ECOWAS Headquarters on Schedule

 The News Agency of Nigeria published on 14 April 2023 an article titled "ECOWAS Reassures of  Completion of New Building by 2025."

The Economic Community of West African States asserted that its new headquarters building in Abuja will be completed by February 2025.  China financed the building and a Chinese company is the contractor.  

China in Sub-Saharan Africa

 The Atlantic Council published in March 2023 a paper titled "China in Sub-Saharan Africa: Reaching Far Beyond Natural Resources" by Amin Mohseni-Cheraghlou and Naomi Aladekoba.  

The paper concludes that Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is central to China's geoeconomics and geopolitical objectives because of its rich sources of energy and minerals.  China is also the leading trade partner and the largest single bilateral source of development finance.  The paper adds that the growing interdependence of China and SSA "has alarmed US and EU policymakers, especially given the weakening of their economic and trade ties with the region."

Comment:  While it is true that the China surpassed the United States in 2009 as the major trade partner with all of Africa and China has become the most important source of development loans from any single country, it is equally important not to overstate China's role.  

China is a relatively modest source in SSA of foreign direct investment compared to the countries in the EU and an insignificant source of aid compared to both the US and the EU.  While it continues to be the leading trade partner with SSA, China's share is down from its peak in 2014.  In the last several years, there has also been a notable decline in China's development financing, construction, and foreign direct investment from their recent highs.  Collectively, Western countries and/or international development banks are far more important in all of these areas for SSA. Even Chinese arms transfers to SSA where Russia is the leading supplier are well below their peak in 2013.  It is time for everyone to take a deep breath.    

Chinese Investment in Ethiopia

 The Conversation published on 21 February 2023 an analysis titled "China and Africa: Ethiopia Case Study Debunks Investment Myths" by Weiwei Chen, University of London.  

The author did research in Ethiopia between 2008 and 2018 comparing the light manufacturing industry and the construction material industry.  She argues that far from constituting a homogeneous and static group, Chinese private investments are highly diverse, fluid, and complex.  Motives and determinants of these firms to invest in Ethiopia differ significantly.  

Chinese Port Development in Nigeria: From Contractor to Investor

 The China-Africa Research Initiative at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies published in January 2023 a study titled "From Contractors to Investors? Evolving Engagement of Chinese State Capital in Global Infrastructure Development and the Case of Lekki Port in Nigeria" by Hong Zhang.  

This case study of Lekki Port in Nigeria serves to illustrate the challenges in China's transition toward "integrated investment, construction, and operation" (IICO) whereby Chinese companies move beyond their traditional role as engineering and construction contractors and also become developers and operators of infrastructure projects.  

The paper calls for continued attention to this emerging form of Chinese state capital's engagement in global infrastructure development, especially on how risks are managed and the implications for the relationships between Chinese actors and host country stakeholders.  

Turkish Construction Companies Nip at Heels of Chinese Companies in Africa

 The Middle East Eye published on 5 February 2023 an article titled "The Turkish Construction Companies Outfoxing China in Africa" by Yusuf Selman Inanc.  

While Turkish companies cannot compete with Chinese companies for access to financing of projects in Africa, they have the advantage of being closer to the continent and technically superior construction.  Turkey now does 18 percent of its international construction business in Africa and has been winning contracts in competition against Chinese companies.  The latter continue, however, to build a far higher percentage of structures in Africa.   

China-Algeria Relations Stuck in Neutral

 The People's Map of Global China posted on 13 January 2023 a survey titled "Algeria" by Tin Hinane el Kadi.  

Despite China's historically important relationship with Algeria, the Belt and Road Initiative has yet to lead to significant investments or job opportunities in the country.  

China to Finance and Build ECOWAS Headquarters: Better Late than Never

 News Agency of Nigeria published on 12 November 2022 an article titled "China to Donate World-Class Edifice to ECOWAS Commission by 2024."

China's ambassador to Nigeria, Cui Jianchun, announced that China will build and fully fund a new headquarters in Abuja, Nigeria for the 15-member Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS).  

Comment: In March 2018, China's ambassador to Nigeria, Zhou Pingjian, announced that he signed a memorandum of understanding with ECOWAS for a $31.6 million grant to build the new headquarters.  The project has apparently been delayed over difficulties in getting approval to build on the land.  

China's Parliament Diplomacy in Africa

 Aljazeera published on 14 October 2022 an article titled "Analysis: Does China's 'Palace Diplomacy' Benefit Africa or Beijing?" by Thomas O'Falk.

China has been financing and building parliaments across Africa, most recently in Zimbabwe.  It has financed and built others in Mozambique, Lesotho, Guinea-Bissau, and Malawi.  It is often not clear if the financing terms are commercial loans, interest-free loans or grants, but China's goal is to gain political influence through these projects (and make a profit if the financing is based on commercial loan terms).