The Atlantic Council published in March 2023 a paper titled "China in Sub-Saharan Africa: Reaching Far Beyond Natural Resources" by Amin Mohseni-Cheraghlou and Naomi Aladekoba.
The paper concludes that Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is central to China's geoeconomics and geopolitical objectives because of its rich sources of energy and minerals. China is also the leading trade partner and the largest single bilateral source of development finance. The paper adds that the growing interdependence of China and SSA "has alarmed US and EU policymakers, especially given the weakening of their economic and trade ties with the region."
Comment: While it is true that the China surpassed the United States in 2009 as the major trade partner with all of Africa and China has become the most important source of development loans from any single country, it is equally important not to overstate China's role.
China is a relatively modest source in SSA of foreign direct investment compared to the countries in the EU and an insignificant source of aid compared to both the US and the EU. While it continues to be the leading trade partner with SSA, China's share is down from its peak in 2014. In the last several years, there has also been a notable decline in China's development financing, construction, and foreign direct investment from their recent highs. Collectively, Western countries and/or international development banks are far more important in all of these areas for SSA. Even Chinese arms transfers to SSA where Russia is the leading supplier are well below their peak in 2013. It is time for everyone to take a deep breath.
