Assessment of Chinese Financed and Built Light Rail Project in Addis Ababa

 The Transportation Research Interdisciplinary Perspectives journal published in March 2026 an in-depth assessment titled "The Road Divides: When Funding Shapes Form - Assessing the Connectivity Impacts of China-financed Light Rail in Addis Ababa" by Guibo Sun, The University of Manchester, and Kristen Zhao, Manchester Metropolitan University.  

Chinese loans provided $475 million for financing most of the Addis Ababa Light Rail Transit (AALRT), a system that rings the capital city.  Completed by Chinese companies almost ten years ago, the system was designed to move up to 60,000 passengers per hour.  AALRT was promoted as a showcase project for the Belt and Road Initiative.

The assessment concludes that AALRT fell far short of its promises.  Chronic service disruptions and limited maintenance funding mean only about a third of its 41 trains are operational, transporting just 55,000 passengers a day, a fraction of its projected capacity.  Instead of alleviating congestion in Addis Ababa, the system has contributed to the creation of new traffic bottlenecks, with daily life in Addis Ababa being impacted by both reduced connectivity and inadequate transfer capacity.

Update on Chinese-built Ethiopia-Djibouti Railway

 The Diplomat published on 14 February 2026 an article titled "The Addis Ababa-Djibouti Railway: Still Growing 8 Years Later" by Istvan Tarrosy, Zoltan Voros, and Ali Miganeh Hadi.

Inaugurated in 2017, the Chinese-built railway is a lifeline for landlocked Ethiopia.  In 2024, Ethiopia and Djibouti took responsibility from China for managing the railway.  Projects are underway to construct spur lines and pressure remains to improve profit margins.  

Revival of the Belt and Road Initiative in Africa

 Australia's Griffith University and the Green Finance & Development Center in Shanghai published on 18 January 2026 "China Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) Investment Report 2025" by Christoph Nedopil Wang.

Since the beginning of BRI in 2013, the report says Chinese construction projects (profit making opportunities by Chinese construction companies) totaled $837 billion globally while investment projects totaled $561 billion globally.  The figures are based on having an active memorandum of understanding with China at the time of the report.  Energy, mining, and transportation projects top the list.

In 2025, Africa accounted for a significant increase ($61.2 billion) in BRI engagement (construction projects and investment), but most of it was in construction projects (47 percent of global total) and not investment (22 percent of global total).  Nigeria alone accounted for $24.6 billion in construction projects and the Republic of the Congo for another $23.1 billion.  

The Plusses and Minuses of Chinese Infrastructure Projects in Africa

 Polity published on 28 November 2025 a commentary titled "China's Infrastructure Partnerships in Africa Require Strategising Developmental Needs over Debt Risks and Security Vulnerabilities."

Chinese state banks and companies have financed numerous interest-bearing loans for African infrastructure projects.  While much African infrastructure has been developed in this way, dependence on Chinese suppliers and management poses potential risks for African nations, especially concerning control over port and telecommunication systems.

Chinese Companies Are Changing the Way They Operate in Africa

 The Conversation published on 7 October 2025 a commentary titled "Chinese Companies Are Changing the Way They Operate in Africa: Here's How" by Elisa Gambino and Costanza Franceschini.  

China's state loans once powered the ability of Chinese companies to win construction contracts in Africa.  But the loans have declined significantly.  Since 2019, Chinese lenders have committed only $6 billion for the development of African infrastructure.  Yet, Chinese companies continue to expand their construction of infrastructure projects in Africa.  This article explains how.  

Ethiopia Bans Sinotruk Brand for Safety Reasons

 Ethio Negari posted on 16 August 2025 an article titled "Ethiopia Bans Entry of China-Made Sinotruk Vehicles."

Ethiopia's Ministry of Transport and Logistics has banned the importation of Sinotruk vehicles citing serious quality and technical defects that pose risks to public safety.

Ethiopian Government Paper Praises Relations with China

 The government-sponsored Ethiopian Herald published on 6 May 2025 an article titled "The Deepening Strategic Relations between Ethiopia, China."

The article summarizes recent cooperation between China and Ethiopia in the fields of financing, infrastructure, investment, trade, and space.  It concludes that "the overall trajectory of Ethiopia-China relations remains positive, characterized by mutual benefits and shared aspirations for economic development and modernization."  It suggests that the China-Ethiopia "partnership serves as a model for South-South cooperation."

Chinese Loans to Africa Increase Modestly in 2023

 Boston University's Global Development Policy Center posted on 21 August 2024 an analysis titled "Relative Risk and the Rate of Return: Chinese Loans to Africa Database, 2000-2023."

China's total loans to Africa peaked in 2016 at $28 billion, fell to $1 billion annually in 2021 and 2022 before rising to almost $5 billion in 2023.  China's top five loan recipients between 2000 and 2023 were Angola, Ethiopia, Egypt, Nigeria, and Kenya.  In 2023, China changed its approach to loans by providing half the total to African multilateral banks and nationally owned banks in Egypt.  It continued to prioritize its longtime borrowers: Angola, Egypt, and Nigeria.   

Study Finds Trucking Preferred Over Kenya's Chinese-built Railway

 The Standard published on 7 April 2024 an article titled "Manufacturers Shun Railway over Cost, Flexibility Concerns" by Brian Ngugi.

A study by the Kenya Association of Manufacturers found that trucking is still the preferred way to move cargo following completion of the Chinese-built standard gauge railway (SGR) from the port of Mombasa to Naivasha.  Trucking is less costly, more flexible, and avoids other limitations of the SGR, which does not have last mile connectivity.  Nor has the railway project identified a source of funding to extend the SGR to the Ugandan border and eventually Kampala.   

The Plusses and Minuses of the Chinese-built Railway in Kenya

 Public Seminar posted on 18 March 2024 a commentary titled "The New Silk Road: China's Belt and Road Initiative Provokes Divided Narratives in Kenya" by Keren Zhu, The New School.

The Chinese-funded and built standard gauge railway in Kenya has provoked a heated debate between proponents of the project's economic benefits and those concerned with its socio-environmental risks.  The author concludes that while the railway was a success for many stakeholders, its long-term effect on Kenya is highly uncertain.

Comment:  The article indicates that the railway is an example of China's investment abroad.  In fact, it is an example of Kenya's investment in itself because Nairobi must pay the Chinese companies for building the project.  

Donkey Skins Are Controversial Issue in China-Africa Trade

 The New York Times published on 23 February 2024 an article titled "Africa's Donkeys Are Coveted by China.  Can the Continent Protect Them?" by Elian Peltier, Keith Bradsher, and Siyi Zhao.

Chinese companies have been slaughtering millions of donkeys across Africa, coveting gelatin from the animals' hides that is processed into traditional medicines, sweets, and beauty products.  The demand is decimating Africa's donkey population, causing the African Union to adopt a continentwide ban on donkey skin exports.  Donkeys are an important source of transport in many African countries.  

Sudan: Inability to Move Food Is Resulting in Starvation

 Aljazeera published on 2 February 2024 an article titled "People 'Dying of Starvation' in Sudan, UN Food Agency Says."

Nearly 18 million Sudanese are facing acute hunger and life-saving assistance is not reaching those who need it most.  Humanitarian aid personnel are not able to get appropriate cooperation from the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces and the Sudan Armed Forces to deliver food.  

Possible Impact of Ethiopia-Somaliland Deal on Djibouti's Economy

 World Politics Review published on 2 February 2024 an analysis titled "The Ethiopia-Somaliland Port Deal Could Sink Djibouti's Economy" by Francisco Serrano.

The port of Djibouti accounts for 95 percent of Ethiopia's trade and 75 percent of Djibouti's GDP is dependent on transport services with Ethiopia.  The deal between Ethiopia and Somaliland, if it materializes, could have a huge negative impact on Djibouti.  

Ethiopia-Somaliland Deal Roils Region

 Deutsche Welle published on 2 January 2024 an article titled "Somalia Rejects Ethiopia Deal with Breakaway Somaliland."

Ethiopia and Somaliland, which declared its independence from Somalia in 1991 but has not been recognized by any government, agreed in a Memorandum of Understanding on 1 January that Ethiopia would obtain a 50-year lease to build a military base on 12 miles of Somaliland's Gulf of Aden coast and obtain access to its port of Berbera.  In return, Ethiopia implied it would be the world's first government to recognize Somaliland.  

The government of Somalia in Mogadishu, which claims Somaliland as part of its territory, rejected the deal on the grounds that Somaliland does not have the authority to make such a deal.  

Comment:  Much is not clear about this deal and many questions remain concerning the ability of Ethiopia and Somaliland to implement it.  The deal appears to have more to do with the establishment of an Ethiopian naval base in the Gulf of Aden than shifting its imports and exports from the port of Djibouti to Berbera.  The transport infrastructure between Djibouti and Addis Ababa is much more developed than that between Berbera and Addis Ababa.  

Chinese Company Suspends Work on Kenyan Road for Lack of Payment

 Kenya's Business Daily published on 27 November  2023 an article titled "Chinese Firm Suspends Work on Kenol Road over Sh900m Delay" by Bonface Otieno.  

China's Jiangxi Transportation Engineering Group has suspended construction on a section of a road in Kenya following a delay in payment by the government of Kenya and the African Development Bank.  The road is part of a Pan-African artery connecting Cairo to Cape Town.  

Ethiopia's Quest for Access to the Red Sea

 Ethiopia Insight published on 26 November 2023 a commentary titled "The Horn of Africa Needs More Trade--But Not at the Cost of More War" by Muktar Ismail, former UN staff member.

Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's pursuit, by force if necessary, of access to the Red Sea is ill-timed following major conflict in the country.  Ethiopia needs to pursue this goal peacefully, perhaps through the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea legal framework that permits landlocked countries like Ethiopia to assert their access rights.  

Climate Change and Conflict in the Horn of Africa

 The Heritage Institute published in September 2023 conference proceedings titled "Climate Change and Conflict in the Horn: Challenges, Responses and New Mandates."

These 15 papers focus primarily on Somalia.  They conclude that climate and weather variability are threatening agricultural and livestock production systems on which the livelihood of over 70 percent of Somali society depends.  Civil conflicts undermine domestic production, impede investments in the key economic sectors and increase rural urban migration as well as the costs of production.  Al-Shabaab remains the defining feature of Somalia's unending conflict landscape.  Weak governance compounds the effect of climate shocks.  Inadequate climate finance will limit the ability of countries in the Horn of Africa to mitigate climate change impacts.  

China Seeks to Revive Tanzania-Zambia Railway

 The South China Morning Post published on 12 November 2023 an article titled "China on Track to Control African Tazara Railway Despite Geopolitical Needling over Control of Mineral Trade Routes" by Jevans Nyabiage.

A Chinese company is expected to negotiate a public-private partnership concession in the form of a build-operate-transfer model with Tanzania and Zambia to operate the 50-year old Chinese-built Tanzam railway.  It is also expected to upgrade the railway at an estimated cost of $1 billion. This is not an aid project but a commercially viable venture.  

Argument for Ethiopian Port and Navy

 Ken Opalo posted on 3 November 2023 a commentary titled "Ethiopia Needs a Reliable Seaport and a Navy."

The author makes the case why landlocked Ethiopia should have reliable access to a seaport and a navy as a guarantor of its economic interests in the Red Sea and Indian Ocean.  

Indian View of 10 Years of China's Belt and Road Initiative in Africa

 India's Observer Research Foundation published on 19 October 2023 a commentary titled "Reading 10 Years of BRI from an African Perspective" by Samir Bhattacharya, Vivekanada International Foundation. 

The author notes the sharp drop in Chinese loans to Africa in recent years under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).  He suggests China's loan financing in Africa will likely rebound, but not to the level of peak years.  Smaller value loans under $50 million and loans with more favorable social and environmental outcomes will likely dominate future BRI projects in Africa.