Climate Change and Conflict in the Horn of Africa

 The Heritage Institute published in September 2023 conference proceedings titled "Climate Change and Conflict in the Horn: Challenges, Responses and New Mandates."

These 15 papers focus primarily on Somalia.  They conclude that climate and weather variability are threatening agricultural and livestock production systems on which the livelihood of over 70 percent of Somali society depends.  Civil conflicts undermine domestic production, impede investments in the key economic sectors and increase rural urban migration as well as the costs of production.  Al-Shabaab remains the defining feature of Somalia's unending conflict landscape.  Weak governance compounds the effect of climate shocks.  Inadequate climate finance will limit the ability of countries in the Horn of Africa to mitigate climate change impacts.  

Improving the Prospects for Peace in South Sudan

 The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute published in June 2023 a major report titled "Improving the Prospects for Peace in South Sudan: Spotlight on Measurement" by Marie Riquier.

The report analyzes the dynamics of peace and conflict and how they impact the contribution of World Food Program (WFP) efforts to improve the prospects for peace in South Sudan.  The report explores how current monitoring systems, internal processes, and data can be adapted to capture WFP's contribution to improving prospects for peace.

Drought Predicted to Worsen in Horn of Africa

 The World Meteorological Organization published on 22 February 2023 an article titled "Another Poor Rainy Season Forecast for Drought Hit Horn of Africa."

Current trends in much of the Horn of Africa are worse than those observed during the drought of 2010-2011.  About 23 million people are now highly food insecure in Ethiopia, Kenya, and Somalia.  Eleven million livestock have already died.  Abnormally low rainfall and warmer temperatures are predicted for much of the region.  

Conflict and Food Insecurity in Northern Ethiopia

 Global Agricultural Monitoring published on 27 September 2022 a report titled "Northern Ethiopia: Conflict and Food Insecurity."

In conflict-affected areas of Tigray, Amhara, and Afar regions, the last three agricultural seasons as well as the current ongoing 2022 Meher season have been impacted by the direct and indirect impacts of the civil war, including widespread displacement and field abandonment, direct attacks on the agricultural and livestock sectors, loss and decreased affordability of agricultural inputs, and limited market supply and access.  

World Food Program's Effort to Reduce Conflict in Ethiopia's Somali Region

 The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute published in April 2022 a report titled "The World Food Programme's Contribution to Improving the Prospects for Peace in Ethiopia" by Farah Hegazi, Vongai Murugani, Grazia Pacillo, and Peter Laderach.  

The report assesses the contributions of WFP Ethiopia's climate adaptation and risk management programs to encourage peace in Ethiopia.  It concludes the programs can potentially contribute to conflict reduction in the Somali region of Ethiopia through reducing herders' mobility during drought and improving natural resource management.

Drought Impacts Parts of Southern Ethiopia

 Ethiopia Insight published on 19 February 2022 a commentary titled "The Drought in Oromia Has Reached a Crisis Point" by Abreham Ketema.  

Three consecutive below average rainy seasons have brought drought to parts of four Ethiopian regions--Oromia, Somali, Southern Nations, and Southwest--putting almost 7 million persons at risk.  

Somalia: Crime and Al-Shabaab

The Conversation posted on 8 April 2020 an analysis titled "How Crime Is Closely Linked to Al-Shabaab's Survival Strategy" by Katharine Petrich, Santa Clara University.

The author concludes that al-Shabaab's criminal activities make the group significantly more resilient to counterterrorism and counterinsurgency campaigns, extending both its lifespan and operational capability, by providing financing and recruitment. 

Chinese Demand for Gelatin Threatens African Donkey Population

The Washington Post published on 11 January 2020 an article titled "Chinese Demand Is Fueling Donkey Theft and Stressing Out Farmers in Ghana" by Danielle Paquette and Maxwell Suuk.

High Chinese demand for donkey hides used to make gelatin is decimating the donkey population in some African countries and resulting in donkey theft because of the money that can be made from donkey skins.

Chinese Agricultural Projects in Uganda

The Christian Science Monitor published on 10 September 2019 an article titled "Big Promises, Few Results: Chinese Farms Falter in Uganda" by Peter Ford.

The article discusses two largely failed Chinese agricultural investments in Uganda. It also argues that the majority of big Chinese agricultural projects in Africa have not lived up to expectations.

Somaliland Moving Forward

The Brenthurst Foundation has just published a report titled "Somaliland: New Ways of Doing Things in a Tough Neighborhood" by Greg Mills, Ray Hartley, and Marie-Noelle Nwokolo.

Still not recognized by any other country, Somaliland is attempting to forge ahead by modernizing its economy by establishing an ambitious new trade corridor with Ethiopia following a large investment in road and port development by the UAE and seeking investment in new industries that will soak up large numbers of unemployed youth.

Agricultural Transformation: Rwanda and Ethiopia Score Best in 2017

The African Union Commission has released its 2017 draft progress report on the implementation of the Malabo Declaration on Accelerated Agricultural Growth and Transformation for Shared Prosperity and Improved Livelihoods.

Its ranking of countries in Africa places Rwanda (score of 6.1) at the top of the list followed by Ethiopia (5.3), Malawi (5), and Mauritius (5). The benchmark for African countries was 3.9, which is the minimum score for a country to be on track for implementing the Malabo Declaration. Twenty-six countries failed to reach this score and twelve failed to report. Other countries in the Horn of Africa scored poorly such as Djibouti (3.2) and Sudan (1.9) or failed to report: Eritrea, Somalia, and South Sudan.

Mitigating Natural Disasters in Somaliland

The University of Hargeisa Institute for Peace and Conflict Studies published in November 2017 a study titled "Mitigating Natural Disasters in Somaliland: Policy Options and Strategies" by Nasir M. Ali and Kedir Jemal.

The objective of the study is to explore existing gaps and weaknesses in climate-related policies and institutional frameworks, with a specific focus on drought-related issues. It also critically examines possible strategies and approaches to help mitigate the impacts of future droughts with a special emphasis on early warning systems.

Somaliland Drought: Diaspora and Mobile Banking to Rescue

The Gulf News published on 7 April 2017 an article titled "Did Adam Smith's Invisible Hand Rescue Somali Drought Victims?" by Bashir Goth, commentator on African issues.

The author reports how the Somali diaspora, using mobile banking, is providing much needed cash to relatives in Somaliland as drought devastates livestock in the Horn of Africa.

Drought in Somalia

The Mogadishu-based Heritage Institute for Policy Studies (HIPS) published in April 2017 a report titled "Somalia's Drought Induced Crises: Immediate Action and Change of Strategy Needed."

The drought in Somalia now covers the entire country. If rain does not arrive by mid-April, and if massive humanitarian assistance does not arrive, the drought could become an insidious famine devastating the country. The report makes suggestions for a more effective Somali government response to the crisis.

Sudan Land Ownership, Political Corruption and the Absence of the Rule of Law

The Sudan Democracy First Group published on 20 March 2017 an analysis titled "Land Ownership, Political Corruption and the Absence of the Rule of Law: Land Conflicts in El Dali, Al Mazum and Abu Houjar."

This is a historical and in-the-weeds study of land conflict in three regions of Sudan's Sennar State where some 1.6 million people live. It is aimed at the specialist on Sudan.

Ethiopia: Fertility Rates, Livestock, and GDP Growth

The International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) recently published three technical reports on Ethiopia. IFPRI, which has its headquarters in Washington, seeks sustainable solutions for ending hunger and poverty. IFPRI is one of 15 centers supported by the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research, an alliance of 64 governments, private foundations and international and regional organizations. It also has an office in Addis Ababa.

The first study by Fanaye Tadesse and Derek Headey is dated January 2012 and titled Urbanization and Fertility Rates in Ethiopia. Ethiopia has one of the highest fertility rates in the world, although there are marked differences between rural and urban fertility rates. The paper explores the drivers of rural and urban fertility rates, including systematic tests of differences in key determinants. The paper projects the fertility rates into the future based on alternative urbanization, economic growth and education scenarios. It then links these alternative projections with existing estimates of the benefits of fertility reduction on economic growth, nutrition and poverty reduction.

The second study by Ayele Gelan, Ermias Engida, A. Stefano Caria and Joseph Karugia is dated January 2012 and titled Integrating Livestock in the CAADP Framework: Policy Analysis Using a Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium Model for Ethiopia. The paper is a highly technical analysis of the livestock sector in Ethiopia.

The third item is a short analysis dated November 2011 and titled Ethiopia's Growth and Transformation Plan: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis of Alternative Financing Options by Ermias Engida and others. It reports that Ethiopia's annual average GDP growth for the period between 2005/2006 and 2009/2010 was 11 percent. The average annual growth rate in the agricultural sector was 8.4 percent and in the service sector 14.6 percent.

Ethiopia, Lifestock and Food Security

Brighter Green, a New York-based public policy action organization, used climate change as the point of entry to explore the effects of the expansion and intensification of the livestock sector in Ethiopia for food security, resource use, equity and sustainability. Titled Climate, Food Security, and Growth: Ethiopia's Complex Relationship with Livestock, the study appeared in 2011.

Brighter Green's research examines whether Ethiopia can industrialize its livestock sector, primarily to serve export markets, without forestalling or derailing development prospects for a population that is expected to reach 150-170 million by 2050. It also investigates whether such a path is viable when large numbers of Ethiopians already have difficulty gaining access to good soils, grazing land, and water. Food security is a huge national challenge and the effects of climate change are increasingly felt.

Brighter Green questions whether Ethiopia's expansion and intensification of its animal-agriculture sector is constraining its chances of coping effectively with drought and erratic weather. Africa will be among the most affected by global warming, even though it has contributed almost nothing to the problem. Africa's greenhouse gas emissions constitute less than 5 percent of the world's total, and Ethiopia's contribution is less than one-tenth of one percent.

Brighter Green recommends that the Ethiopian government adopt a long-term plan for achieving food security that emphasizes nutritious and sustainably produced foods for human consumption, reassess its heavy reliance on livestock, and end policies that encourage further industrialization of this sector, while working to expand domestic capacity to produce vegetables, fruits, pulses, and cereals for Ethiopians.