Ethiopia: Fertility Rates, Livestock, and GDP Growth

The International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) recently published three technical reports on Ethiopia. IFPRI, which has its headquarters in Washington, seeks sustainable solutions for ending hunger and poverty. IFPRI is one of 15 centers supported by the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research, an alliance of 64 governments, private foundations and international and regional organizations. It also has an office in Addis Ababa.

The first study by Fanaye Tadesse and Derek Headey is dated January 2012 and titled Urbanization and Fertility Rates in Ethiopia. Ethiopia has one of the highest fertility rates in the world, although there are marked differences between rural and urban fertility rates. The paper explores the drivers of rural and urban fertility rates, including systematic tests of differences in key determinants. The paper projects the fertility rates into the future based on alternative urbanization, economic growth and education scenarios. It then links these alternative projections with existing estimates of the benefits of fertility reduction on economic growth, nutrition and poverty reduction.

The second study by Ayele Gelan, Ermias Engida, A. Stefano Caria and Joseph Karugia is dated January 2012 and titled Integrating Livestock in the CAADP Framework: Policy Analysis Using a Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium Model for Ethiopia. The paper is a highly technical analysis of the livestock sector in Ethiopia.

The third item is a short analysis dated November 2011 and titled Ethiopia's Growth and Transformation Plan: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis of Alternative Financing Options by Ermias Engida and others. It reports that Ethiopia's annual average GDP growth for the period between 2005/2006 and 2009/2010 was 11 percent. The average annual growth rate in the agricultural sector was 8.4 percent and in the service sector 14.6 percent.