Politics and Resource Extraction in Ethiopia

 The Rift Valley Institute published in 2024 a paper titled "Prosperity to the Periphery? The Politics of Resource Extraction in Ethiopia, Post-2018" by Jonah Wedekind.

The Abiy Ahmed government sought to reform the governance of resource extraction and revenue distribution by sharing them more fairly with politically marginalized regions.  The author concludes that despite the ruling Prosperity Party's pledge to redress Ethiopia's center-periphery model of politics, the balance of power vis-a-vis peripheral regions and the political center has not shifted fundamentally.  

Oil and Gas Development in Ethiopia's Somali Region

 The Rift Valley Institute and Peace Research Facility published in 2023 a study titled "Squeezing the Ogaden Basin: Power and Protracted Oil and Gas Exploration in the Somali Region" by Juweria Ali, University of Westminster.  

Ethiopia's Somali Region is rich in oil and gas reserves in the Ogaden Basin.  Attempts by the federal government in Addis Ababa to access these resources are bound up in long histories of violence and dispossession.  There is no federal government road map to resume oil and gas exploration and future extraction in the Ogaden Basin following the 2022 expulsion of China's Poly-GCL company.  

There is evidence that the federal government is pursuing a policy of co-opting community figures in order to gain greater legitimacy for its top-down decision-making on oil and gas management, at the expense of public participation.  

Ethiopia: Atoning for Violence

 Foreign Affairs published on 15 November 2023 an article titled "Can Justice Bring Peace to Ethiopia: How to Heal Divisions After Decades of War" by Patrick Vinck, Tadesse Simie Metekia, Geoff Dancy, Kathryn Sikkink, and Phuong N. Pham.  

The authors conducted a nationwide survey of more than 6,600 randomly selected Ethiopian adults in June and July 2023.  They found that more than 90 percent of Ethiopians said it would be unacceptable to move forward without truth seeking, trials, or reparations.  They differed sharply, however, on what timeframe to focus on and who should lead the effort.  There were marked regional differences in Ethiopians' preferences for types of trials.  

Is Ethiopian Prime Minister Using Best Tactics in Somali Region?

 Ethiopia Insight published on 23 June 2023 a commentary titled "Ethiopia's Abiy May Have Opened the Door to Al-Shabaab" by Muktar Ismail, an adviser to the Somali regional government.  

Ethiopia successfully repelled an al-Shabaab attack in Somali Region last year, but the jihadi group has more recently taken advantage of disgruntled Ethiopians and, according to one account, infiltrated between 600 and 1,000 into Somali Region.  Abiy has deployed more forces in Somali Region but their tactics are reportedly alienating local Somalis and contributing to al-Shabaab's ability to recruit more jihadists.  Abiy's timing of the dissolution of the controversial Liyu police in Somali Region may also be counterproductive.  

Ethiopia: Resolving Conflict between Somalis and Afars

 Ethiopia Insight published on 4 April 2023 a commentary titled "Federal Action Needed to End Ethiopia's Somali-Afar Conflict" by Abel Tesfaye, Ethiopia Insight reporter.

The author calls for Ethiopian federal government mediation to end recurring conflict between Somali Region and Afar Region.

Ethiopia Allegedly Sends Troops into Somaliland

 Ethiopia Insight published on 20 March 2023 a commentary titled "Somaliland and Ethiopia Faceoff over Las Anod Jeopardizes Regional Cooperation."

Somaliland accused Ethiopia of sending troops to the disputed area around Los Anod.  Leaders of Ethiopia's neighboring Somali Region have denied the charge.  

UK Relations with Ethiopia

 The Royal United Services Institute published in February 2023 a study titled "On Shifting Ground: An Appraisal of UK Engagement in Ethiopia" by Simon Rynn.

The paper looks at UK engagement in Ethiopia from 2015 to the present, concluding that London has made some limited progress on aspects of its foreign policy agenda in the country.  But the UK has been constrained by smaller and unpredictable budgets, the unplanned merger of the Foreign and Commonwealth Office and the Department for International Development, the absence of a detailed strategy for Ethiopia, and weaknesses with leadership.  The overriding limiting factor for UK action in Ethiopia in recent years has, however, been a worsening operating context since a change in Ethiopia's leadership in 2018.

Ethiopian History Haunts Nation-building Efforts

 Ethiopia Insight published on 22 January 2023 a commentary titled "Ethiopian Nation-building Is Haunted by Its Troubled History" by Muktar Ismail, former advisor to the Somali Regional government and former UN staff member.

The author argues that Ethiopia has not had a history of a deliberate program to build national unity.  Internal conflicts that arose over a century ago continue to this day.  The wars in Tigray and Oromia are examples of this history.  Ethiopia needs to launch a transitional justice and reconciliation process with the aim to end its culture of impunity around past and present abuses.  

Ethiopia: Multiple Issues Displace Somalis

 Ethiopia Insight published on 11 October 2022 a commentary titled "The Mass Exodus of Ethiopian Somalis to Sitti Zone" by Mohamed Hadi Gafdiid, a humanitarian worker in Somali Region.  

The Somali residents of Sitti zone, formerly know as Shinile, have experienced conflict with neighboring Afars, drought, and flooding.  The result has been massive displacement.  In some cases, Afar militants armed with heavy weapons to combat Tigrayans have turned them on Somalis. 

Ethiopia Cancels Contract with Chinese Petroleum Company

 The Addis Standard published on 21 September 2022 an article titled "Ethiopia Terminates Contract with Chinese POLY-GCL Effective Today."

Ethiopia announced the termination of a contract with Chinese oil and gas company POLY-GCL for failure to meet the conditions of the agreement.  POLY-GCL has been exploring for oil and natural gas in the Ogaden basin of Somali Region since 2013.  

Ethiopia: Afar-Somali Region Border Dispute

 Ethiopia Insight published on 11 July 2022 a commentary titled "Afar-Somali Border Dispute Can Be Resolved Peacefully" by Muktar Ismail, a former adviser to Somali Region.  

The issue here is three special kebeles (wards) in Afar Region that are inhabited predominantly by Somalis and wish to be integrated into Somali Region.  There are historical arguments on both sides.  Conflict has periodically occurred along the border.  The author argues that elders from both sides should lead the negotiation process. 

Climate Change Contributing to Ethiopian Drought

 The Voice of America published on 15 May 2022 an article titled "Persistent Drought in Ethiopia Result of Climate Change, Experts Say" by Linda Givetash.

According to the World Metrological Organization, the warming Indian Ocean is associated with drying conditions in parts of Ethiopia, especially Somali Region, leading to persistent drought.

Drought in Horn of Africa Hits Children Hard

 UNICEF published on 28 April 2022 a press release titled "UNICEF Executive Director Catherine Russell Visits Drought-impacted Somali Region in Ethiopia and Calls for an Immediate Scaled-up Response to Save the Lives of Millions of Children."

Three failed consecutive rainy seasons in parts of Ethiopia, Djibouti, Kenya, and Somalia have caused one of the worst droughts in decades.  One of the most impacted areas is Somali region of Ethiopia.  Some 10 million children need urgent life-saving support.  

World Food Program's Effort to Reduce Conflict in Ethiopia's Somali Region

 The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute published in April 2022 a report titled "The World Food Programme's Contribution to Improving the Prospects for Peace in Ethiopia" by Farah Hegazi, Vongai Murugani, Grazia Pacillo, and Peter Laderach.  

The report assesses the contributions of WFP Ethiopia's climate adaptation and risk management programs to encourage peace in Ethiopia.  It concludes the programs can potentially contribute to conflict reduction in the Somali region of Ethiopia through reducing herders' mobility during drought and improving natural resource management.

Podcast: National Dialogue in Ethiopia

 The Horn of Africa Center in Minneapolis organized on 20 February 2022 a podcast titled "A National Dialogue for Transition in Ethiopia" moderated by Gorse Ismail with panelists Abdirahman Mahdi, Hafsa Mohamed, and myself.  Much of the discussion focused on Somali interests in Ethiopia.  

Drought Impacts Parts of Southern Ethiopia

 Ethiopia Insight published on 19 February 2022 a commentary titled "The Drought in Oromia Has Reached a Crisis Point" by Abreham Ketema.  

Three consecutive below average rainy seasons have brought drought to parts of four Ethiopian regions--Oromia, Somali, Southern Nations, and Southwest--putting almost 7 million persons at risk.  

UN Deputy Secretary General Upbeat about Peace in Ethiopia

 UN News published on 9 February 2022 an article titled "Ethiopia in 'Much Better Place' to Resolve Tigray Conflict: Mohammed."

UN Deputy Secretary General Amina Mohmmed recently finished a 5-day trip to Ethiopia where she visited Tigray, Amhara, Somali, and Afar regions.  She emphasized the UN Secretary General's call for an end to conflict and concluded there is "less hostility than there was a few months ago."

Analysis of Ethiopia's June Elections

 Ethiopia Insight published on 21 September 2021 an analysis titled "EIEP: Lust for Power Trumped Reformist Zeal in Ethiopia's Election."

This is a region by region analysis of the 21 June elections in Ethiopia where the Prosperity Party won 410 of the 425 contested seats in parliament and almost 98 percent of the contested contests in regional and city council elections.  Ethiopia Insight concluded that in spite of all efforts to rebrand, the Prosperity Party used an array of tactics straight out of the Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front playbook to win.  

Conflict Blocks Chinese-built Ethio-Djibouti Rail Link

 The Reporter of Ethiopia published on 31 July 2021 an article titled "Ethio-Djibouti Line Remains Closed" by Brook Abdu.

The Ethio-Djibouti rail line shut down on 24 July and remained closed as of 31 July due to conflict on the border between Afar and Somali Regions.  The conflict in Tigray Region may also be linked to the closure.

Why Ethiopia's 2021 Elections Matter

 The US Institute of Peace published on 17 June 2021 an analysis titled "Why Ethiopia's 2021 Elections Matter" by Aly Verjee and Terence Lyons.

There are serious questions whether the 21 June elections in Ethiopia will advance democratization or lead to further political polarization.  At least 76 of the 547 constituencies will not be voting.