African Debt a Growing Problem But Not a Crisis

Project Syndicate published on 23 May 2018 an analysis titled "The Debt Challenge to African Growth" by Abebe Aemro Selassie, International Monetary Fund.

Much of the commentary on African debt recently has been hyperbolic, but there is a growing problem. Sub-Saharan Africa is confronting a pronounced rise in public debt. At the end of 2017, average public debt in the region was 57% of its GDP, an increase of 20 percentage points in just five years. Six of the region's 35 low-income countries (LICs) are in "debt distress," meaning they are unable to service external commitments. A further nine LICs are classified as being at "high risk of debt distress."

The author argues that if Sub-Saharan Africa is to take full advantage of the current global economic upswing, policymakers must tackle public-debt vulnerabilities head-on while they can. Doing nothing will only constrain the region's potential to achieve sustainable and inclusive growth.

Al-Shabaab Funding Assessment

The Foundation for Defense of Democracies published in June 2017 a report titled "Al-Shabaab Financial Assessment" by Yaya J. Fanusie, a former CIA counterterrorism analyst, and Alex Entz.

The report concludes that al-Shabaab probably will see its funding grow in years to come as AMISOM draws down its support for the government of Somalia. Al-Shabaab's funding comes primarily from an extensive taxation system.

Sub-Saharan Africa Economic Outlook (English and French)

The IMF released in May 2017 its "Regional Economic Outlook: Sub-Saharan Africa."

In 2016, growth in Sub-Saharan Africa slowed in about two-thirds of the countries in the region and is estimated to have reached just 1.5 percent. This marked the region's worst performance in more than two decades. A rebound to 2.5 percent in 2017 will be driven by one-off factors in the three largest economies--a recovery in oil production in Nigeria, higher public spending ahead of elections in Angola, and the fading of drought effects in South Africa--combined with improvements in their terms of trade. Nonetheless, the underlying regional momentum remains weak and Sub-Saharan African growth will continue to fall well short of past trends and barely exceed population growth.

The report contains sections on restoring the conditions for strong and sustainable growth, restarting Sub-Saharan Africa's growth engine, and the informal economy in Sub-Sahara Africa.

Ethiopia's Economic Growth

The Institute for Security Studies posted a 14 minute video titled "View on Africa: Making Ethiopia's Economic Growth Count."

After recounting Ethiopia's economic success, it suggests challenges that need to be met so that this success does not end in failure.

Ethiopia: Rapid Economic Growth but Poor Access to Basic Services

The Institute for Security Studies (ISS) published on 4 May 2017 a policy brief titled "Key to the Horn: Ethiopia's Growth to 2030" by authors from ISS and the Frederick S. Pardee Center at the University of Denver.

The study notes that few African countries have developed as rapidly as Ethiopia over the past 25 years and that economic growth has also been paired with a sizeable expansion of service delivery. Nonetheless, Ethiopians continue to suffer from some of the lowest levels of access to basic services of any country in Africa.

Somaliland's Oil Laws

This is Africa published on 18 December 2014 an article titled "Disputed Somaliland's Oil Laws Heighten Stakes in Volatile Region" by Rachel Williamson. 

Somaliland is developing legislation in preparation of expected, but unconfirmed, benefits from petroleum deposits.  The draft bills are still being held within the energy ministry and have not been presented to the cabinet. 

Somalia: How Successive Governments Plundered Public Resources

Abdirazak Fartaag, director of public financial management in the office of the Somali prime minister between 2009 and 2011, published in November 2014 a detailed account of alleged financial peculations in successive Somali governments.  The book-length analysis is titled Their Own Worst Enemy: How Successive Governments Plundered Somalia's Public Resources and Why the World Looked On. 

South Sudan's Petroleum Revenue Management Act

The Juba-based Sudd Institute, an independent research organization, published on 12 December 2013 a study titled "South Sudan's Petroleum Revenue Management Act" by Emily Savage, a visiting scholar at the Sudd Institute.  The Petroleum Revenue Management Act (PRMA) establishes a formalized structure for distribution of petroleum revenues to meet budgetary needs, savings and revenue stabilization, and direct transfers to petroleum producing states and affected communities.  The PRMA has the potential to be a game changer for South Sudan, avoiding capital flight and unstable public expenditures while ensuring that long-ignored communities in the oil-producing regions receive direct benefit from the petroleum sector.

Of course, if the current carnage in South Sudan does not come to an end quickly, this report and South Sudan's oil revenue are all moot.