The International Crisis Group reposted on 5 September 2025 a commentary titled "South Sudan's Day of Reckoning Is Nigh" by Daniel Akech.
President Salva Kiir has taken steps to consolidate his power, including setting up Benjamin Bol Mel as his eventual successor. The result is growing political instability. The author called on the leaders of key African governments to urge restraint and push for a broad political forum to discuss the future of South Sudan.
The International Crisis Group (ICG) published on 1 September 2025 an analysis titled "Succession Fever Deepens South Sudan's Malaise."
As the health of South Sudan's President Salva Kiir declines, there is growing disquiet in the country over Kiir's effort to have inexperienced Benjamin Bol Mel succeed him. The ICG argues there needs to be a forum where key South Sudanese elites can discuss the political future, including the question of who will replace Kiir.
The International Crisis Group posted on 18 August 2025 remarks titled "Briefing to UN Security Council on the Situation in South Sudan" by Murithi Mutiga.
The 2018 peace accord, which ended a civil war in South Sudan, appears to be collapsing and the ongoing civil war in neighboring Sudan is extending instability by driving over 1.2 million people into South Sudan.
World Politics Review published on 20 June 2025 an analysis titled "South Sudan's Latest Crisis Is Following a Familiar Script" by Lesley Anne Warner.
The fragile peace established in South Sudan in 2018 may be unraveling. South Sudan is returning to form: erosion of power sharing, military fragmentation, and an apparent succession crisis.
The International Crisis Group posted on 9 June 2025 a half hour podcast titled "As South Sudan Quakes, an Heir Apparent Rises" with Alan Boswell and Daniel Akech.
The podcast discusses the political decline of President Salva Kiir and Vice President Riek Machar and the rise of wealthy Dinka businessman, Benjamin Bol Mel, who is closely linked to Salva Kiir. Although much younger than Salva Kiir, Benjamin Bol Mel is not seen as a person who would significantly change the corrupt system in South Sudan.
The International Crisis Group (ICG) posted on 6 May 2025 a commentary titled "UN Readies for Critical Vote on South Sudan's Arms Embargo" by Maya Ungar.
The UN Security Council will vote in late May on whether to renew the arms embargo on South Sudan for 12 months. Even as the internal security situation deteriorates, the South Sudan government opposes the embargo. The ICG argues that removing the arms embargo now could stoke escalating violence in South Sudan.
AEI's Critical Threats Africa File published on 20 March 2025 an article titled "RSF Attacks Spread to South Sudan" by Kathryn Tyson and John Reece.
There are indications that the civil war in Sudan is spilling over into South Sudan with the Rapid Support Forces supporting Salva Kiir's government and the Sudan Armed Forces backing South Sudan rebels.
Foreign Policy published on 1 April 2025 an analysis titled "South Sudan Is Returning to War" by Clemence Pinaud, Indiana University.
The author concluded that "there are currently no restraints on the government of South Sudan from returning to a full-blown war, and from targeting civilians based on their ethnicity."
The International Crisis Group posted on 28 March 2025 a 44-minute podcast titled "South Sudan on the Brink of Another War" hosted by Richard Atwood with Alan Boswell and Daniel Akesh.
They examine what's behind recent clashes between government forces and opposition-linked militias, which began in Upper Nile State before spreading to other parts of the country. They also look at President Salva Kiir's government shakeup and how the war in neighboring Sudan has compounded tensions in South Sudan.
The Associated Press published on 27 March 2025 an article titled "South Sudan Opposition Says Peace Deal Has Collapsed after Arrest of Its Leader" by Deng Machol.
The government has arrested Vice President Riek Machar, effectively ending the peace agreement between President Salva Kiir and Machar and pushing South Sudan to the brink of civil war.
The New York Times published on 17 March 2025 an article titled "How South Sudan Returned to the Brink of War" by Abdi Latif Dahir.
The latest clashes in South Sudan involve the South Sudan national military under President Salva Kiir and an opposition force known as the White Army, which is believed to be allied with Vice President Riek Machar. The Kiir government accused the White Army of attacking a military garrison while Machar says Kiir is targeting his allies.
The International Crisis Group published a statement dated 7 March 2025 titled "South Sudan on the Precipice of Renewed Full-blown War."
Tensions are rising quickly between the forces that support President Salva Kiir and those who back Vice President Riek Machar. The civil war raging in neighboring Sudan is contributing to the tension in South Sudan, where violence is likely to escalate. South Sudan could easily slip back into full scale conflict and ethnic bloodletting.
The South China Morning Post published on 2 March 2025 an article titled "How Chinese Firms Are Holding Out Hope for South Sudan's Oil Lifeline" by Jevans Nyabiage.
After a year of interrupted oil production, which provides 90 percent of South Sudan's revenue, it resumed early this year. While this is an important boost to South Sudan's economy, inflation rages and production will not return to pre-shutdown levels. Chinese companies with significant stakes in the oil sector are hoping they can return to profitability.
The October 2024 issue of the Foreign Service Journal has an article titled "South Sudan at 13: Reflections on Crisis, Aid, and the Road to Recovery" by Julius Kaut.
South Sudan remains in crisis and dependent on humanitarian aid. The civil war in Sudan has interrupted the flow of oil and elections scheduled for December may not take place. Yet, the author remains optimistic about South Sudan's future.
The International Crisis Group published on 11 September 2024 an analysis titled "High Stakes for the South Sudan Talks in Kenya" by Daniel Akech.
Kenya is mediating talks in Nairobi between Salwa Kiir's South Sudan government and exiled opposition leaders. National elections scheduled for December are in doubt, South Sudan is facing a humanitarian crisis as oil revenue falls, divisions have developed in the Kiir government, and Riek Machar's party has withdrawn from the talks. The negotiations in Nairobi are imperiled.
The International Crisis Group published on 15 May 2024 a commentary titled "South Sudan on Edge as Its Neighbor's War Disrupts Oil Exports."
The civil war in Sudan has severely disrupted oil transported by pipeline from South Sudan to Port Sudan, depriving southerners of petrodollars, the government's main source of revenue. One of these pipelines, responsible for about two thirds of South Sudan's oil exports, broke down in February and will require months of complex repairs that must be made amid active combat.
South Sudan's government will run out of money and the national currency's value will plunge. Chronic food shortages will worsen, presaging renewed instability and fighting.
Aljazeera published on 26 March 2024 an article titled "South Sudan on the Brink after Oil Exports Derailed by Sudan's Civil War" by Mat Nashed.
All oil produced in South Sudan passes through war torn Sudan where it is exported from the Red Sea at Port Sudan. The oil pipeline was damaged last month in an area controlled by Sudan's paramilitary Rapid Support Forces. It has not been possible to repair the pipeline because of ongoing fighting, raising fears that South Sudan's economy could collapse.
The pipeline accounts for as much as three-quarters of South Sudan's oil revenue, which, in turn, accounts for 90 percent of the country's revenue. Most of the oil revenue supports the ruling leadership in Juba, which faces elections in December.
African Arguments published on 5 June 2023 a commentary titled "The Sudan Crisis Viewed from Juba: A Path Towards Resolution" by Mayiik Ayii Deng.
The author makes the argument that South Sudan's President Salva Kiir is well positioned to mediate an end to the crisis in its northern neighbor.
Aljazeera published on 12 May 2023 an article titled "Clouds Gather over South Sudan as Battles Rage Next Door" by Mat Nashed.
South Sudan relies on oil exported through pipelines in Sudan for 90 percent of its income. Any disruption to the pipelines would be devastating for South Sudan. Fighting in Sudan is also creating refugee flows to South Sudan and disrupting the fragile political fabric of the country.
The Washington Post published on 3 May 2023 an article titled "Sudan's Warring Generals Closely Matched Ahead of Latest Ceasefire" by Katharine Houreld and Hafiz Haroun.
The Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) and paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) are fairly evenly matched military organizations. The SAF has an estimated 134,000 personnel, including the air force and navy, while the RSF has about 100,000. The RSF has more recent combat experience in Yemen. Both the SAF and RSF have in-country access to the manufacture of military equipment and ammunition.
