The Complexities of Conflict in South Sudan

 The International Crisis Group posted on 28 March 2025 a 44-minute podcast titled "South Sudan on the Brink of Another War" hosted by Richard Atwood with Alan Boswell and Daniel Akesh.  

They examine what's behind recent clashes between government forces and opposition-linked militias, which began in Upper Nile State before spreading to other parts of the country.  They also look at President Salva Kiir's government shakeup and how the war in neighboring Sudan has compounded tensions in South Sudan.

Upper Nile in South Sudan Prepares for War

 Small Arms Survey published in March 2023 an analysis titled "Upper Nile Prepares to Return to War."

Armed groups are mobilizing for conflict in South Sudan's Upper Nile province.  The commanders of the armed groups in Upper Nile are acting with different degrees of autonomy from their backers in the capital of Juba.  A resurgence of violence will interrupt the distribution of humanitarian supplies and services in Upper Nile and Jonglei provinces.  

South Sudan: The Secret of Salva Kiir's Survival in Power

 African Arguments published on 16 February 2022 a commentary titled "The Pawn Who Became King: How Has Salva Kiir Stayed at the Top So Long?" by Daniel Akech Thiong, independent consultant.

The author concludes that Salva Kiir has survived by employing a combination of carrots and sticks in his interaction with friends and enemies.  

South Sudan is Coming Apart

The New York Times published on 4 March 2017 an article titled "War Consumes South Sudan, a Young Nation Cracking Apart" by Jeffrey Gettleman.

Based on a visit to Yambio in Equatoria Region of South Sudan, the article paints a dismal picture of the future of the country.

Fault Lines in South Sudan

The Institute for Security Studies published on 12 January 2017 a study titled "Beyond ARCISS: New Fault Lines in South Sudan" by Christina Roque, PhD candidate at Oxford, and Remember Miamingi, South Sudan human rights expert.

This report looks beyond the issues in South Sudan concerning peacekeeping and analyzes what is required for a broader and more sustainable peace.

South Sudan: A Pass on Independence Day

Foreign Policy published on 8 July 2016 a commentary titled "The Independence Day Nobody's Celebrating" by Jason Patinkin.

South Sudan marks five years of independence on 9 July 2016. Its peace agreement is in trouble. There will be no celebration on this fifth anniversary.

South Sudan Peace Agreement Falling Apart

Foreign Policy published on 22 January 2016 an article titled "South Sudan's Next Civil War Is Starting" by Amanda Sperber.  President Salva Kiir's order to create 28 states is strongly opposed by the SPLA-IO and may lead to a resumption of civil war. 

South Sudan: New York Times Reports on Worsening Situation

The New York Times published on 22 June 2015 an article titled "As South Sudan Crisis Worsens, 'There Is No More Country'" by Marc Santora.  Written from Malakal, Santora describes a dismal situation that offers little hope for the future. 

Options for Peace in South Sudan

The Institute for Security Studies (ISS) published in March 2015 a report titled "Reviewing Options for Peace in South Sudan" by Emmanuel Kisiangani, senior researcher at ISS. 

The report describes the forces driving the violence in South Sudan and explores how these forces might interact to influence the country's short- and medium-term future.  The author concludes that continuing violence erodes the country's capital, aggravates structural problems and polarizes the population.  When viewed against the backdrop of South Sudan's history, prospects for durable peace appear far off.

Conflict in South Sudan: A Human Rights Report

The United Nations Mission in the Republic of South Sudan (UNMISS) issued on 8 May 2014 a thorough analysis titled "Conflict in South Sudan: A Human Rights Report."  It concludes that from the outset of the violence in December 2013, gross violations of human rights and serious violations of humanitarian law have occurred on a massive scale.  Civilians were not only caught up in the violence, they were directly targeted, often along ethnic lines.