Is Ethiopia on the Brink?

 Ethiopia Insight published on 16 May 2025 a commentary titled "Ethiopia on the Brink" by Abraham Sahilu Abegaz, University of Michigan-Dearborn, and Amsalu Lemlemu Adane, Anadolu University in Turkey.

The authors concluded that Ethiopia is facing a growing crisis of governance that calls into question its continued ability to function as a state under international law.  

Fragile States Index: East Africa and the Horn

The Fund for Peace published on 14 May 2017 its "Fragile States Index" for 2017 that covers 178 countries. Most countries in East Africa and the Horn scored poorly. South Sudan was declared most fragile followed by Somalia. Sudan was number 5, Ethiopia number 15, Eritrea number 19, Kenya number 22, and Uganda number 24. Djibouti did somewhat better at number 41 and Tanzania substantially better at number 65.

Ethiopia and the Fragile States Index

The Fund for Peace released its 2017 Fragile States Index and included a special commentary on Ethiopia dated 14 May 2017 and titled "Golden Era of Growth Fails to Mask Deeper Grievances in Ethiopia" by Hannah Blyth.

Ethiopia's overall Fragile States Index score has been incrementally worsening over the past decade, moving from 95.3 in 2007 to a score of 101.1 in the 2017 index. Ethiopia and Mexico were the most worsened countries over the past year.

2016 Fragile States Index: East Africa and Horn Score Poorly

The Fund for Peace has just released its 2016 Fragile States Index. East Africa and the Horn of Africa again scored poorly. Six of the ten most fragile states are in Africa and three (Somalia, South Sudan, and Sudan) are in the top five. But the rest of the region did not do a lot better. Eritrea was number 18, Kenya was number 20, and Ethiopia was number 24. Djibouti did somewhat better at number 39 and Tanzania did considerably better at number 62.

Fragile States Index 2015

The Fund for Peace has just released the Fragile States Index 2015 report.  Seven of the ten most fragile countries in the world are in Africa.  In order, they are South Sudan, Somalia, Central African Republic, Sudan, Democratic Republic of Congo, Chad, Yemen, Syria, Afghanistan, and Guinea.  Rankings for other countries in the Horn of Africa are Ethiopia (20), Kenya (21), Eritrea (24), and Djibouti (40). 

Rethinking Engagement in Fragile States

The Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies published in July 2015 a study entitled "Rethinking Engagement in Fragile States" by Jennifer Cooke and Richard Downie.  It looks at four states in particular--Somalia, South Sudan, Mali, and Myanmar--and makes recommendations for external engagement with these states.

Horn of Africa: 2015 Fragile State Index

Foreign Policy has just published the Fund for Peace 2015 Fragile State Index.  Countries in the Horn of Africa rank poorly out of 178 countries ranked globally.  Holding the number one ranking as the world's most fragile state is South Sudan, followed by Somalia at number 2 and Sudan at number 4.  Ethiopia is in position number 20, Kenya 21, Eritrea 24, and Djibouti 41.

Options for Peace in South Sudan

The Institute for Security Studies (ISS) published in March 2015 a report titled "Reviewing Options for Peace in South Sudan" by Emmanuel Kisiangani, senior researcher at ISS. 

The report describes the forces driving the violence in South Sudan and explores how these forces might interact to influence the country's short- and medium-term future.  The author concludes that continuing violence erodes the country's capital, aggravates structural problems and polarizes the population.  When viewed against the backdrop of South Sudan's history, prospects for durable peace appear far off.