The Complexities of Conflict in South Sudan

 The International Crisis Group posted on 28 March 2025 a 44-minute podcast titled "South Sudan on the Brink of Another War" hosted by Richard Atwood with Alan Boswell and Daniel Akesh.  

They examine what's behind recent clashes between government forces and opposition-linked militias, which began in Upper Nile State before spreading to other parts of the country.  They also look at President Salva Kiir's government shakeup and how the war in neighboring Sudan has compounded tensions in South Sudan.

Upper Nile in South Sudan Prepares for War

 Small Arms Survey published in March 2023 an analysis titled "Upper Nile Prepares to Return to War."

Armed groups are mobilizing for conflict in South Sudan's Upper Nile province.  The commanders of the armed groups in Upper Nile are acting with different degrees of autonomy from their backers in the capital of Juba.  A resurgence of violence will interrupt the distribution of humanitarian supplies and services in Upper Nile and Jonglei provinces.  

Sudan-South Sudan Border and Grazing Conflict

The border between Sudan and South Sudan is not fully delimited or demarcated.  It is highly militarized by numerous armed groups.  All along the border there is confusion about which administrative levels should control grazing routes.  Joshua Craze, PhD candidate at UC Berkeley, just released a paper titled "Dividing Lines: Grazing and Conflict along the Sudan-South Sudan Border" that looks at the issue through the lens of the 2011-2012 grazing season, the first since South Sudan's independence.  Seasonal pastoralist movements through the border regions are one of the central reasons for tension between the two states.