Why Ethiopia Should Trust the West

 Foreign Policy published on 10 November 2021 a commentary titled "Why Ethiopia Should Trust the West" by Seifudein Adem, Doshisha University in Japan.

The author concludes that it appears Ethiopia is reaching a stage where it cannot save itself and only the West has the willingness and capacity to rescue the Ethiopian state from devouring its own citizens--and eventually itself.  US efforts to help Ethiopia have led to anti-Americanism in Ethiopia that is not ideological and is, therefore, a short-term phenomenon.  It is connected with what the United States is perceived to be doing rather than what the United States is.  At such a perilous moment, it is important for ordinary Ethiopians to understand why they should trust the West.

The underlying frame of reference of the conflict in Tigray region is the contrasting visions of two groups--Amhara and Tigrayan elites--about the future direction of Ethiopia.  Tigrayan elites want to keep ethnic federalism while Amhara elites want to abolish ethnic federalism because it undermines Ethiopia's unity.  

Ethiopia's Western friends can help the country as it tries to heal itself.  If Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed wants to keep Ethiopia together, he will be better off embracing Western efforts rather than shunning them. 

Comment:  A great deal of ink has been spilled in recent months on the humanitarian crisis and civil war in Ethiopia.  The comments by Seifudein Adem are among the most rational and constructive that I have seen.  

Ethiopia's Prime Minister Calls for African Internal Cohesion

 Project Syndicate published on 9 September 2020 a commentary titled "Africa's Peace and Prosperity Begin at Home" by Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. 

Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed opens with the statement that "Africans must take responsibility for our continent's affairs."  It is very hard to disagree with the statement.  He adds that "Africa's ability to become a strong geopolitical force hinges on its own internal cohesion and economic integration."  Another truism, but is it not also time to apply these goals to Ethiopia?

Sudan-South Sudan Border and Grazing Conflict

The border between Sudan and South Sudan is not fully delimited or demarcated.  It is highly militarized by numerous armed groups.  All along the border there is confusion about which administrative levels should control grazing routes.  Joshua Craze, PhD candidate at UC Berkeley, just released a paper titled "Dividing Lines: Grazing and Conflict along the Sudan-South Sudan Border" that looks at the issue through the lens of the 2011-2012 grazing season, the first since South Sudan's independence.  Seasonal pastoralist movements through the border regions are one of the central reasons for tension between the two states.