Rapid Support Forces Commanders Defect to Sudan Armed Forces

 AEIs Critical Threats Africa File posted on 21 May 2026 an article titled "Sudan" by Michael DeAngelo.  

Infighting between the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) leadership and three RSF field commanders resulted in their defection together with their troops to the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF).  

The SAF is using defections to fracture the RSF and rapidly integrate their troops into SAF combat operations.  The SAF is pursuing a military victory and showing no interest in peace talks.  Bringing defectors into its senior ranks may, however, complicate its command-and-control challenges.    

Renewed Fighting in South Sudan

 The International Crisis Group posted on 21 January 2026 a commentary titled "Rebel Offensive Sounds Onset of War in South Sudan" by Daniel Akech.

Fighting has broken out between the Dinka forces of President Salva Kiir and the Nuer followers of Vice President Riek Machar.  The current situation is stoking ethnic grievances and will likely draw in South Sudan's neighbors in Uganda and factions fighting in Sudan.  

Sudan's Killing Fields

 The Washington Post published on 1 November 2025 an article titled "Families Shot Down, Held at Ransom as They Flee Darfur's Killing Fields" by Katharine Houreld and Hafiz Haroun.  

The article documents the atrocities in Darfur region following the capture of El Fasher, capital of North Darfur, by the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF).  While a few countries provide military and/or financial assistance to the combatants, the RSF or the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF), most prefer to look the other way as the atrocities continue.     

Ethiopia's Culture of Confrontation and Aggression

 Ethiopia Insight published on 1 October 2025 a commentary titled "The Grammar of Aggression: Ethiopia's Culture of Confrontation" by Daniel Hailu, a multidisciplinary researcher.

The author argues that aggression and confrontation are a major feature of Ethiopian society.  These characteristics eclipse behaviors such as cooperation, mediation, and restraint.  As a result, force governs Ethiopian society.

The author concludes that "only by addressing the emotional, psychological, and cultural underpinnings of aggression can Ethiopia create the conditions for lasting social cohesion."

Sudan Conflict Impacts Stability in Chad

 The International Crisis Group published on 1 September 2025 an analysis titled "Keeping Chad Stable as Sudan's Conflict Rages."

Chadian support for the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces in neighboring Sudan's war with the Sudan Armed Forces has embroiled Ndjamena in the conflict.  Chad also hosts about 875,000 Sudanese refugees and 300,000 Chadian returnees, creating a humanitarian crisis.  The end of US aid, increasing crime, and ethnic conflict are exacerbating the situation.  The UAE is playing an outsized role in Sudan and Chad.

For a French translation, click here.  

Is Ethiopia a Temporal Hostage?

 Ethiopia Insight published on 2 August 2025 a commentary titled "Time's Hostage: How Ethiopia's Past Is Strangling Its Present and Future" by Daniel Hailu, a multidisciplinary researcher.

The author argues that Ethiopians don't simply live through time, they "politicize it, weaponize it, and often drown in it."  He adds, "The past isn't settled, it aches" and "The burden of the past bleeds into the present."  Ethiopia's crisis cannot be explained by ethnic divisions or weak institutions alone.  To move forward, Ethiopia must step outside the grip of its temporal paralysis.  

Ethiopia: Conflict in Oromia

 Ethiopia Insight published on 24 July 2025 an article titled "Under Two Flags: Life in Dembi Dollo" by Ermias Tasfaye, an Ethiopia Insight reporter based in Oromia.

The town of Dembi Dollo in western Oromia is at the center of the region's long conflict between the Ethiopian state and Oromo nationalism.  The Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) is waging an insurgency against the federal government.  Dembi Dollo town remains under government control because of heavy security while the OLA dominates the countryside.  Dembi Dollo is griped with fear.  

Sudan's Two Years of Hell

 The International Crisis Group posted on 16 April 2025 a 34-minute podcast titled "Sudan's Two Years of Hell" with Alan Boswell and Dallia Mohamed Abdelmoniem, Sudanese political commentator and civil society activist.  

Dallia and her family departed Khartoum soon after the war began two years ago and ended up taking refuge in Egypt. She stays in touch with persons who remained in the capital region and follows events closely.

Those who remained in Khartoum describe the situation as "hell on earth" and living in an open prison.  People are just trying to make something out of nothing. Ethnic divisions have become more severe and may permanently divide the country.  Much of the country has now experienced war crimes committed by the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and even if they dislike the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) they just want to see the end of the RSF.  Dallia longs to return to Khartoum but does not envisage an early end to the power struggle between the RSF and the SAF.   

The Spillover of Sudan's War into Eastern Chad

 The International Crisis Group posted on 10 April 2025 a 7-minute video in French (with English subtitles) titled "The Spillover of Sudan's War into Eastern Chad" by Charles Bouessel.

The video is accompanied by a photo essay by Charles Bouessel with commentary in English.

The one million refugees from Sudan are placing an immense strain on Chad's isolated and impoverished eastern provinces.  The population of one of the provinces has increased by 60 percent over the past two years.  

South Sudan Is Returning to War

 Foreign Policy published on 1 April 2025 an analysis titled "South Sudan Is Returning to War" by Clemence Pinaud, Indiana University.

The author concluded that "there are currently no restraints on the government of South Sudan from returning to a full-blown war, and from targeting civilians based on their ethnicity."

The Complexities of Conflict in South Sudan

 The International Crisis Group posted on 28 March 2025 a 44-minute podcast titled "South Sudan on the Brink of Another War" hosted by Richard Atwood with Alan Boswell and Daniel Akesh.  

They examine what's behind recent clashes between government forces and opposition-linked militias, which began in Upper Nile State before spreading to other parts of the country.  They also look at President Salva Kiir's government shakeup and how the war in neighboring Sudan has compounded tensions in South Sudan.

South Sudan Facing New Outbreak of Conflict

 The International Crisis Group published a statement dated 7 March 2025 titled "South Sudan on the Precipice of Renewed Full-blown War."

Tensions are rising quickly between the forces that support President Salva Kiir and those who back Vice President Riek Machar.  The civil war raging in neighboring Sudan is contributing to the tension in South Sudan, where violence is likely to escalate.  South Sudan could easily slip back into full scale conflict and ethnic bloodletting.

Sudan: Are We Not Humans?

 The New York Times published on 12 October 2024 a commentary titled "'Are We Not Humans?'" by Nicholas Kristof.

Kristof recently visited the Chad-Sudan border area and wrote about the ongoing tragedy in Sudan.  This is a follow up commentary in which he responds to questions from readers about what can be done to improve the situation.  

Sudan's Killing Fields

 The Washington Post posted on 9 September 2024 an article titled "Videos from Sudan's Killing Fields Reveal Ethnic Hatred Behind Massacres" by Katharine Houreld, Hafiz Haroun, Lucy Provan, Klaas van Dijken, and Maud Jullien.  

The videos underscore the vitriol of Arab militiamen affiliated with the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces toward their Black African victims and the toll of that bigotry.  

Ethiopia: New Ethnic Conflict in Western Tigray?

 Reuters published on 3 May 2024 an article titled "Ethiopia's Amhara Militia Says Resettlement Plan 'Beats War Drum'."

Many Tigrayans were displaced from disputed territory in Western Tigray during the civil war that ended in November 2022.  A plan to return some of the internally displaced Tigrayans to this region has resulted in alarm bells being sounded by the Amhara Fano militia that now occupies the land.  

Preventing Another Darfur Genocide

 The Center for Strategic and International Studies published on 25 April 2024 a commentary titled "Preventing Another Darfur Genocide" by Cameron Hudson.  

The author suggests several steps that might help prevent an incipient genocide in Sudan's North Darfur region.  

Will the War in Sudan Become More Ethnically Based?

 Aljazeera published on 22 April 2024 an article titled "Sudan War Could Lead to More Ethnic Killings in Volatile Darfur Region" by Mat Nashed.

Increasingly, the conflict in Sudan, especially in Darfur region, is becoming an ethnic conflict.  There are fears that non-Arab Zaghawa, who reside in both Darfur and neighboring Chad, may join the battle in greater numbers.  

Sudan: The Situation after One Year of War

 The International Crisis Group (ICG) posted on 12 April 2024 a 44-minute podcast titled "What's Left of Sudan After a Year at War?"

ICG experts Shewit Woldemichael and Alan Boswell discuss with Richard Atwood the war in Sudan on the eve of its first anniversary.  They review recent gains by the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) against the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), which appeared until recently to have the upper hand.  They unpack the humanitarian crisis and the possibility of famine.  They provide insights on the internal dynamics within the SAF, which increasingly rely on Islamist brigades and other armed groups, and the RSF.

They examine the role of outside powers, with Egypt supporting and Iran reportedly selling drones to the SAF, and the UAE widely thought to be arming the RSF.  They discuss the challenges of getting the warring parties' leaders to engage in a peace process and the difficulties of returning Sudan to a civilian-led post-war transition.  They conclude that Sudan has essentially collapsed.  

Ethiopia Back on the Brink

 Foreign Affairs posted on 8 April 2024 a commentary titled "Ethiopia Back on the Brink" by Alex de Waal and Mulugeta Gebrehiwot Berhe, both with the World Peace Foundation at Tufts University.

The authors point out that the war in Tigray Region has been followed by rebellion in Amhara Region and continuing unrest in Oromia.  Famine threatens both Tigray and Amhara Regions.  The United Arab Emirates is keeping the Abiy Ahmed government afloat but is also encouraging reckless projects.  

The Argument for Ethiopian Federalism

 The Conversation published on 26 November 2023 a commentary titled "What Is Federalism? Why Ethiopia Uses This System of Government and Why Its Not Perfect" by Bizuneh Yimenu, University of Birmingham.

The primary aim of Ethiopian federalism is to accommodate the country's diverse ethnic groups.  The author argues that federalism, in spite of its imperfections, remains the best political system for Ethiopia.