Rapid Support Forces Commanders Defect to Sudan Armed Forces

 AEIs Critical Threats Africa File posted on 21 May 2026 an article titled "Sudan" by Michael DeAngelo.  

Infighting between the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) leadership and three RSF field commanders resulted in their defection together with their troops to the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF).  

The SAF is using defections to fracture the RSF and rapidly integrate their troops into SAF combat operations.  The SAF is pursuing a military victory and showing no interest in peace talks.  Bringing defectors into its senior ranks may, however, complicate its command-and-control challenges.    

Sudan Peace Talks Postponed

 AEI's Critical Threats Africa File published on 21 August 2025 an article titled "Sudan" by Ellery White and Liam Karr.  

The United States planned to hold peace talks in late July with the major external actors in the Sudan conflict Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE.  Last minute disagreements between the UAE and Egypt resulted in a postponement of the talks until at least September.

Sudan: Current Military Situation and Recommendations for Seeking Peace

 Reliefweb posted on 7 April 2025 an analysis titled "Two Years On, Sudan's War Is Spreading."

This is a good, balanced summary of the current military situation on the ground in Sudan and suggestions for moving the warring parties towards peace.  

Ethiopia's Counteroffensive against Fano Militia

 The American Enterprise Institute's Critical Threats published on 10 October 2024 an article titled "The ENDF Launched a Counteroffensive against Ethno-nationalist Insurgents Known as Fano in Ethiopia's Northwestern Amhara Region."

This is a summary of recent military action involving the Ethiopian National Defense Forces and the Fano militia in Amhara Region.  

Somalia-Ethiopia Talks in Turkey to Continue

 Radio France Internationale posted on 17 August 2024 an article titled "Ethiopia and Somalia Move Closer to Resolving Somaliland Dispute."

Turkey will host a third round of talks between Ethiopia and Somalia on 17 September in an effort to mediate the differences over the Ethiopian-Somaliland memorandum of understanding for a naval base near Berbera in the Gulf of Aden.  The parties did not reach an agreement in the first two rounds of talks.

Sudan after 15 Months of Civil War

 Aljazeera published on 7 July 2024 an article titled "What's Sudan Like after 15 Months of War, Displacement, and Inhumanity?"

Approaching its 16th month of war, conflict is spreading to new areas, some IDPs are fleeing to yet different locations and their numbers are growing, refugees continue to increase, and deaths are mounting.  The risk of famine is growing, relief agencies are severely stretched, and peace talks are going nowhere. 

Sudan Talks Falter and War Expands

 Atlas News published on 12 April 2024 an article titled "Sudan Talks Pushed Back as War Expands" by Sebastien Gray.

The proposed 18 April date for the resumption of peace talks between the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) and paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Saudi Arabia has been pushed back to a time that has not yet been agreed upon.  A collection of militias in north Darfur known as the Joint Force has aligned with the SAF against the RSF, which controls most of Darfur.

Sudan: Peace Talks in Saudi Arabia and Fighting in Khartoum

 Reuters published on 10 May 2023 an article titled "Battles Shake Sudan's Capital as Power Struggle Escalates."

Talks sponsored by the United States and Saudi Arabia between the Sudan Armed Forces and paramilitary Rapid Support Forces are continuing in Saudi Arabia.  In the meantime, heavy fighting is occurring in Khartoum, Omdurman, and Bahri in the capital region.  

Ethiopia Threatens to Sever Relations with Certain Countries

 South Africa's News 24 published on 29 October 2022 an article titled "Tigray Conflict Talks: Ethiopia Threatens to Cut Ties with Countries Pushing 'Sinister Political Agenda'" by Lenin Ndebele.

Ethiopia has threatened to cut diplomatic ties with countries that it believes are making politically motivated accusations about the civil war in Ethiopia.

South Sudan, Peace Deals, and Corruption

 Just Security published on 13 June 2022 a commentary titled "South Sudan: The Road to a Living Hell, Paved with Peace Deals" by James P. McGovern, Member of Congress, and John Prendergast, senior advisor to the Clooney Foundation for Justice.  

The warring parties in South Sudan have signed numerous peace deals since 2014 to little positive effect.  Corruption has become the hallmark of South Sudan and the relationship between the president and vice president remains volatile and full of mutual suspicion.   

Ethiopian Peace Talks Face Numerous Barriers

 African Arguments posted on 7 June 2022 a commentary titled "Ethiopia's Complicated Barriers to Peace" by Bizuneh Yimenu, University of Kent.

Meaningful progress on peace talks in Ethiopia has been slow.  The author identifies a large number of contentious issues that require resolution and offers suggestions for making the peace talks more productive. 

South Sudan Peace Talks Lacking Optimism

The Institute for Defense Analyses Africa Watch published on 8 February 2017 a brief commentary titled "Expectations Are Low for the Second Round of South Sudan Peace Talks" by Sarah Graveline.

The author concluded that if the talks do not go the way the South Sudan government wants, there is little to stop it from continuing its military campaign. Similarly, a leading opposition group has stated its intention to continue fighting should the talks fail.

South Sudan: Little Hope for Settlement

The International Business Times published on 11 August 2015 an article titled "South Sudan Peace Talks Resume with High Stakes but Little Hope for Resolution" by Morgan Winsor.

All of the people interviewed for the article were pessimistic about the prospects for peace in South Sudan following the 17 August deadline set by the international community. 

South Sudan Peace Talks

The International Crisis Group (ICG) published on 12 March 2015 an open letter titled "Restart of South Sudan Talks Critical to Avert End-March War Threat." 

The IGAD-led peace talks have collapsed and been suspended until sometime in April.  The ICG argues that it is critical to restart the talks and expand the membership beyond IGAD-member countries before the end of March.  IGAD is prepared to add China, US, UK, EU, and Norway to the mediation process. 

South Sudan Peace Talks Collapse

The Institute for Security Studies (ISS) published on10 March 2015 a commentary titled "South Sudan Peace Talks Collapse, Election Called Off" by Sebastian Gatimu of ISS Nairobi.  The author concluded that South Sudanese President Salva Kiir and rebel leader Riek Machar have crushed the people's hopes by refusing to make the compromises needed for peace. 

South Sudan Heads towards Famine Amid Descent into Lawlessness

Inter Press Service published on 14 August 2014 an article titled "South Sudan Heads towards Famine Amid Descent into Lawlessness."  It offers a dismal prediction on the likely success of peace talks, commenting that tribal divisions are driving the conflict.  

Abduction of ONLF Representatives in Kenya

Ogaden Today asked me to comment on the abduction this week in Nairobi, Kenya, of two Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF) representatives and the implications of this development for peace talks between Ethiopia and the ONLF.  Ogaden Today published my brief response on 2 February 2014.

Face-to-Face Peace Talks Likely to Fail in South Sudan

Foreign Policy published an analysis on 22 January 2014 titled "With Negotiators Like These . . . Peace Talks Won't Solve the Crisis in South Sudan. Africa-Style Justice Will" by George B.N. Ayittey.

Ayittey argues that western-style face-to-face peace talks will not solve the crisis in South Sudan.  What is needed is the use of indigenous conflict resolution mechanisms that rely on the role of civil society and local authorities and traditions.  He may have a point.