Another Analysis of the Ethiopia-Somaliland Deal

 Ethiopia Insight published on 8 March 2024 an analysis titled "Ethiopia's Somaliland Gambit Rattles a Shaky Horn" by Jussi Grut, a researcher focusing on the history and politics of East Africa.

The author concludes that while conflict between Ethiopia and Somalia is unlikely, this diplomatic row is further destabilizing a fragile region.  It may also revive the possibility of closer ties between the Ogaden National Liberation Front in Ethiopia and an increasingly upset Somalia.  Without significant investments in infrastructure, the Memorandum of Understanding is not likely to affect Ethiopia's import or export of goods. 

Oil and Gas Development in Ethiopia's Somali Region

 The Rift Valley Institute and Peace Research Facility published in 2023 a study titled "Squeezing the Ogaden Basin: Power and Protracted Oil and Gas Exploration in the Somali Region" by Juweria Ali, University of Westminster.  

Ethiopia's Somali Region is rich in oil and gas reserves in the Ogaden Basin.  Attempts by the federal government in Addis Ababa to access these resources are bound up in long histories of violence and dispossession.  There is no federal government road map to resume oil and gas exploration and future extraction in the Ogaden Basin following the 2022 expulsion of China's Poly-GCL company.  

There is evidence that the federal government is pursuing a policy of co-opting community figures in order to gain greater legitimacy for its top-down decision-making on oil and gas management, at the expense of public participation.  

Will Ethiopia-Somaliland Agreement Result in Ethiopian Separatism?

 The Conversation published on 13 January 2024 a commentary titled "Ethiopia's Deal with Somaliland Upends Regional Dynamics, Risking Strife Across the Horn of Africa" by Alemayehu Weldemariam, Indiana University.  

The unpublished Memorandum of Understanding between Ethiopia and Somaliland has created geopolitical tensions in the region that could exacerbate Ethiopia's internal problems.  The author argues that the MOU risks conflict with Somalia and could lead to the renewal of a breakaway push within Ethiopia itself.  

Ethiopian History Haunts Nation-building Efforts

 Ethiopia Insight published on 22 January 2023 a commentary titled "Ethiopian Nation-building Is Haunted by Its Troubled History" by Muktar Ismail, former advisor to the Somali Regional government and former UN staff member.

The author argues that Ethiopia has not had a history of a deliberate program to build national unity.  Internal conflicts that arose over a century ago continue to this day.  The wars in Tigray and Oromia are examples of this history.  Ethiopia needs to launch a transitional justice and reconciliation process with the aim to end its culture of impunity around past and present abuses.  

Ethiopia: Multiple Issues Displace Somalis

 Ethiopia Insight published on 11 October 2022 a commentary titled "The Mass Exodus of Ethiopian Somalis to Sitti Zone" by Mohamed Hadi Gafdiid, a humanitarian worker in Somali Region.  

The Somali residents of Sitti zone, formerly know as Shinile, have experienced conflict with neighboring Afars, drought, and flooding.  The result has been massive displacement.  In some cases, Afar militants armed with heavy weapons to combat Tigrayans have turned them on Somalis. 

Critical Analysis of Ethiopia's National Dialogue Process

 Ethiopia Insight published on 12 March 2022 a commentary titled "Ethiopia's Stillborn National Dialogue" by Buli Edjeta, director of a research, consultancy, and training institute.  

The author is highly critical of the process for establishing the National Dialogue Commission because it resulted from Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's "exclusionist approach."  He concludes "a satisfactory National Dialogue is highly unlikely while war is raging and major opposition leaders are sidelined or in jail."

Podcast: National Dialogue in Ethiopia

 The Horn of Africa Center in Minneapolis organized on 20 February 2022 a podcast titled "A National Dialogue for Transition in Ethiopia" moderated by Gorse Ismail with panelists Abdirahman Mahdi, Hafsa Mohamed, and myself.  Much of the discussion focused on Somali interests in Ethiopia.  

Ethiopia's Dire Dawa: An Ethnic Melting Pot

 Ethiopia Insight published on 2 August 2021 an analysis titled "Dire Dawa's Dilemma: Sharing Power in Ethiopia's Eastern Melting Pot" by an anonymous author.

Dire Dawa hosts significant numbers of Oromo, Somali, and Amhara and presents a challenge for power sharing.  Numerous political parties are active in the federal district.  

Ethiopia: Elections Postponed in Somali Region

 Ethiopia Insight posted on 11 June 2021 a commentary titled "New Faces, Old Problems: Reforms, Clans and Parties in Ethiopia's Somali Region" by Abdirahman Ahmed, Jigjiga University.  

The author discusses party, personality and clan dynamics in Somali Region in the runup to Ethiopia's parliamentary elections scheduled for later this month.  

The day before this commentary appeared, Ethiopia announced that elections in Somali Region will be postponed until September, citing irregularities and problems with the printing of ballots.

Is There an Ideological Basis to Conflict in Tigray?

 Ethiopia Insight published on 17 December 2020 a commentary titled "Conflict in Tigray Is about TPLF, Not Ethnic Federalism" by Teshome M. Borago, accountant and political analyst.  

The author argues that if there is an ideological basis to the conflict in Tigray, it is not the TPLF's commitment to ethnic federalism, but rather the TPLF's opposition to a new multiparty and pluralist Ethiopia where its political power monopoly will be threatened.  

Tigray Region and Lessons from Failed Ethio-Eritrean Federation

Ethiopia Insight posted on 25 June 2020 a commentary titled "Abiy Ahmed Must Draw Lessons from the Failed Ethio-Eritrean Federation" by Bizuneh Getachew Yimenu, University of Kent. 

The author argues that in dealing with the TPLF and Tigray Region today, the Ethiopian central government needs to revisit the lessons learned from the failed Ethio-Eritrean federation of 1962.

Ethiopia: Alienation of Somali Region

Ethiopia Insight posted on 17 June 2020 a commentary titled "Time for Reconciliation and Apologies to Ethiopian Somalis" by Sharezad Faisal Gas, women's rights activist in Jigjiga.

The author comments on the continuing alienation of Somali Region and urges a national reconciliation conference take place in Jigjiga. 

Ethiopia: Ogaden National Liberation Front Seeks Power in Somali Region

Ethiopia Insight posted on 10 May 2020 a commentary titled "An Ogadeni Feud and Somali Folktale" by Hud B. Abdulahi, former member of the ONLF international relations committee.

The author argues that the Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF) leadership, which seeks power in Somali region, is internally divided and may lose everything as a result.

Ethiopia: Change in Somali Region Capital

Ethiopia Insight published on 30 January 2020 a commentary titled "Jigjiga's Autocratic Modernity" by Tobias Hagmann, Roskilde University.

The author describes the change he observed during a visit to Jigjiga last year after an absence of thirteen years. He concludes that Jigjiga has experienced development and dictatorship, infrastructure and intimidation, and progress and pain.

Ethiopia's Quiet Revolution

The Journal of Democracy published in July 2019 an article titled "Ethiopia's Quiet Revolution" by Jon Temin and Yoseph Badwaza, both at Freedom House.

The authors concluded that Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed faces major challenges before possible elections in 2020. He draws positive headlines around the globe, but is not always helped by his messaging at home. He and his government need to do more to lay out their vision of a comprehensive reform process with clear bench-marks and goals, and they need to set up mechanisms that can monitor progress and ensure accountability.

Somalia Needs a Grand Internal Political Bargain

The Mogadishu-based Heritage Institute for Policy Studies recently posted a policy brief titled "Somalia Needs Conciliatory Not Confrontational Politics."

It calls for a grand political settlement among all stakeholders as the surest way to political stability and ultimately defeating al-Shabaab. It also urges the Gulf States, especially Saudi Arabia and the UAE, to spare Somalia from Gulf State conflicts.

Kenya at War with Al-Shabaab

African Affairs published in January 2015 an article titled "Kenya at War: Al-Shabaab and Its Enemies in Eastern Africa" by David M. Anderson, professor at the University of Warwick, and Jacob McKnight, post-doctoral researcher at the University of Oxford African Health Systems Collaboration.

The article reviews the background to Kenya's invasion of southern Somalia, Operation Linda Nchi, and the prosecution of the war by Kenya's Defense Forces up to the capture of the city of Kismayo and the contest to control its lucrative port and the charcoal trade.  The authors then discuss al-Shabaab's response, showing how the  movement has reinvented itself to take the struggle into Kenya.  They conclude that while the military defeat of al-Shabaab in southern Somalia seems inevitable, such a victory may become irrelevant to Kenya's ability to negotiate a political settlement with its Somali and wider Muslim communities at home. 

UN Security Council Monitoring Group Report on Eritrea

The UN Security Council has released its 116 page Monitoring Group report on Eritrea dated 13 October 2014.

The Monitoring Group found no evidence of Eritrean support to al-Shabaab during the reporting period.  It did not, however, rule out the possibility that Eritrea may have provided some asistance to elements within al-Shabaab without detection.  In any event, Eritrea is a marginal actor in Somalia.

Eritrea continued to violate a UN resolution by importing weapons and ammunition from eastern Sudan on a regular basis and with the knowledge and direction of Eritrean officials affiliated with the President's Office.

The Monitoring Group could not substantiate or confirm allegations made by the government of South Sudan that Eritrea had violated a UN resolution by providing military and logistical support to armed rebel groups in South Sudan.

Eritrean support for regional armed groups continued to be linked primarily to the larger context of Ethiopian-Eritrean rivalry in the Horn of Africa, the unsettled border dispute between Ethiopia and Eritrea, and the way in which that rivalry shapes Eritrean foreign policy.  There is evidence that Eritrea supports the Ogaden National Liberation Front, the Tigray People's Democratic Movement, and Ginbot Seven. 

It is the assessment of the Monitoring Group that senior Eritrean officials continue to collect millions of dollars per year through unofficial revenues by means of private business arrangements involving PFDJ-run companies domestically and abroad.

Seeking Peace in Ethiopia's Ogaden

The Rift Valley Institute in Nairobi recently published a lengthy study titled "Talking Peace in the Ogaden: The Search for an End to Conflict in the Somali Regional State in Ethiopia" by Tobias Hagmann, a professor at Roskilde University in Denmark. 

The author explains that the conflicting parties were preparing for a third round of talks early in 2014 when two Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF) representatives were forcibly relocated from Nairobi to Ethiopia.  It is not clear that the talks will resume, but the author suggests the ONLF has been diminished militarily and politically over the past five years and is under pressure from its constituency to chart an alternative course.  The author questions the sincerity of Ethiopia in seeking a negotiated peace. 

Pastoral Life in Ethiopia's Somali Region

The Inter Press Service published on 30 June 2014 a human interest story titled "Trekking with Ethiopia's Nomads, from Watering Holes to Pasture Lands, for a Better Life" by William Lloyd-George.  The article, which includes pictures, focuses on pastoralism in Ethiopia's Somali Region.