US Support for Regime Change in Eritrea: A Bad Idea

 The conservative American Enterprise Institute published on 6 January 2025 a commentary titled "Eritrea Is the North Korea of Africa: America Must Act" by Michael Rubin.  

The author argues that while U.S. forces have no business in Eritrea nor would their deployment be wise, "the United States should openly support regime change."  He adds that incoming President Donald Trump should empower his National Security Council and Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs "to help Eritreans rid the world of one of its worst regimes."

Comment:  While Eritrea is poorly governed and no friend of the United States, U.S. government supported regime change is not the answer.  This is a task for Eritreans themselves.  Any concerted effort by the United States to change the government in Eritrea will almost certainly end badly and even be resented by many Africans who also have a negative opinion of the regime.

Eritrea: China, Russia, and the United States

 The Hudson Institute published in July 2023 a policy memo titled "Eritrea's Growing Ties with China and Russia Highlight America's Inadequate Approach in East Africa" by Joshua Meservey.  

The author argues that China and Russia have recently increased their engagement with Eritrea while American influence in the region is slipping.  Eritrea's increasingly close relations with Beijing and Moscow likely mean that the situation in the Horn of Africa will soon get even worse for Washington.  

US Sanctions and Restrictions on Ethiopia and Eritrea

 Foley & Lardner LLP posted on 21 November 2022 a notice titled "Navigating U.S. Sanctions and Restrictions on Ethiopia and Eritrea" by Ahmad Murrar and Parker White.

This piece outlines the sanctions and restrictions placed on Ethiopia and Eritrea by the United States as a result of the conflict in northern Ethiopia.  It then reviews the impact of the peace process on these decisions.  It concludes by noting that Foley & Lardner can (for a fee) help interested parties navigate these sanctions and restrictions.  

Podcast on Eritrea's Feud with Ethiopia's Tigray

 The International Crisis Group posted a 50-minute podcast with Michael Woldemariam, University of Maryland, titled "Eritrea's Long Bitter Feud with Ethiopia's Tigray" moderated by Alan Boswell.  

The podcast provides a background on the feud between the government of Eritrea and the TPLF leadership in Tigray Region.  Eritrea has dedicated significant forces to the Ethiopian central government effort to defeat Tigrayans in the civil war that broke out in 2020.  The immediate withdrawal of Eritrean forces from Ethiopia is essential to a successful end of the conflict.  At the same time, there needs to be a conversation about Eritrea's security concerns.  

Eritrea: Russia's New Best Friend in Africa

 The East African published on 29 April 2022 an article titled "Eritrea Calls for 'Bilateral Solution' of Russia-Ukraine Conflict" by Tesfa-Alem Tekle.  

A senior Eritrean delegation recently visited Moscow to show support for Russia.  The article suggests Eritrea's support for Russia's invasion of Ukraine is a way to demonstrate its anti-Americanism and to serve as Russia's leading representative in Africa.  Russia reportedly announced it plans to build a military logistics facility in the port of Assab.   

US Slaps Sanctions on Eritrea

 The U.S. Department of the Treasury on 12 November 2021 imposed sanctions on four Eritrean entities and two individuals in connection with the crisis in Ethiopia.  The individuals and entities sanctioned are the Eritrean Defense Force, the People's Front for Democracy and Justice, Abraha Kassa Nemariam, Hidri Trust, Hagos Ghebrehiwet W Kidan, and Red Sea Trading Corporation. 

The U.S. Department of State issued a press release at the same time titled "Imposing Sanctions in Connection with the Conflict in Ethiopia."  It explains that although today's sanctions are directed at the Eritrean government and ruling party, the United States remains gravely concerned about the conduct of all parties to the conflict.  The US is not imposing sanctions at this time on elements aligned with the Government of Ethiopia and TPLF to allow time and space to see if talks among the conflicting parties can make progress.  

US Declares Ethiopia Crisis Threat to US and Lays Groundwork for Extensive Sanctions

 The White House issued on 17 September 2021 an executive order "On Imposing Sanctions on Certain Persons With Respect to the Humanitarian and Human Rights Crisis in Ethiopia."

President Joseph Biden determined that the situation in Ethiopia constitutes an extraordinary threat to the national security and foreign policy of the United States and declared a "national emergency" to deal with the threat.

The comprehensive executive order gives the Secretary of the Treasury authority to impose sanctions on any foreign person engaged in activities that contribute to the crisis in northern Ethiopia.  The order cites the government of Ethiopia, the government of Eritrea or its ruling People's Front for Democracy and Justice, the Tigray People's Liberation Front, the Amhara regional government, and the Amhara regional or irregular forces.

The Conflict in Ethiopia from a Tigrayan Perspective

 Ethiopia Insight posted on 18 December 2020 a commentary titled "The War on Tigray: A Multi-pronged Assault Driven by Genocidal Undercurrents" by Gebrekirstos Gebremeskel, an Amsterdam-based researcher.  

This is a lengthy and controversial historical account of the conflict in Tigray Region written from a Tigrayan perspective.  The author argues the conflict is a war against Tigray Region and the Tigrayan people with the goal of destroying Tigray.  

More on Alleged Eritrean Involvement in Tigray Region

 TRT World, a Turkish state-owned news channel, posted on 12 December 2020 an article titled "US Urges Eritrean Troops to Withdraw from Ethiopia's Tigray Region" by Faisal Ali.  

The article summarizes the charges that Eritrea has deployed troops in Ethiopia's Tigray Region in support of the Ethiopian National Defense Force. 

Eritrea Continues National Service during Pandemic

 Africa Is a Country just posted a commentary titled "Eritrea's Deteriorating State" by Abraham T. Zere, US-based exiled Eritrean journalist.  

Eritrea is continuing its required National Service and training that concentrates young Eritreans at its military facility at Sawa in the face of the COVID-19 pandemic.  

Can Eritrea's Government Survive the Coronavirus?

Aljazeera published on 30 April 2020 a commentary titled "Can Eritrea's Government Survive the Coronavirus?" by Abraham T. Zere, executive director of an Eritrean group in exile.

By rejecting China's offer of ventilators and personal protective equipment to combat coronavirus, Eritrea hindered its ability to deal with the crisis. The author suggests mishandling of the threat may bring down the government. It should be noted, however, that as of 28 April, Eritrea reported only 39 confirmed cases of coronavirus and the country has been in lockdown since 1 April.

Eritrea under Isaias Afwerki

The Carnegie Council for Ethics in International Affairs published on 12 March 2018 an analysis titled "Maintaining Power by Breaking Up Society: Eritrea under Isaias Afwerki" by Bahlbi Y. Malk, Canadian Partnership for Reconstruction and Development.

The author argues that Isaias Afwerki has maintained control of Eritrea since independence through a successful policy of divide and rule.

UN Security Council Monitoring Group Report on Eritrea

The UN Security Council has released its 116 page Monitoring Group report on Eritrea dated 13 October 2014.

The Monitoring Group found no evidence of Eritrean support to al-Shabaab during the reporting period.  It did not, however, rule out the possibility that Eritrea may have provided some asistance to elements within al-Shabaab without detection.  In any event, Eritrea is a marginal actor in Somalia.

Eritrea continued to violate a UN resolution by importing weapons and ammunition from eastern Sudan on a regular basis and with the knowledge and direction of Eritrean officials affiliated with the President's Office.

The Monitoring Group could not substantiate or confirm allegations made by the government of South Sudan that Eritrea had violated a UN resolution by providing military and logistical support to armed rebel groups in South Sudan.

Eritrean support for regional armed groups continued to be linked primarily to the larger context of Ethiopian-Eritrean rivalry in the Horn of Africa, the unsettled border dispute between Ethiopia and Eritrea, and the way in which that rivalry shapes Eritrean foreign policy.  There is evidence that Eritrea supports the Ogaden National Liberation Front, the Tigray People's Democratic Movement, and Ginbot Seven. 

It is the assessment of the Monitoring Group that senior Eritrean officials continue to collect millions of dollars per year through unofficial revenues by means of private business arrangements involving PFDJ-run companies domestically and abroad.

Eritrean Refugees at Risk

Foreign Policy in Focus published on 10 April 2014 a piece titled "Eritrean Refugees at Risk" by Dan Connell, a professor at Simmons College and expert on Eritrea.  The analysis describes the misfortunes of Eritreans leaving the country for a variety of reasons.  Some of them fall into the hands of human traffickers. 

Eritrea: Scenarios for Future Transition

Flickr/Steve Rhodes

The International Crisis Group (ICG) released a report on 28 March 2013 titled "Eritrea: Scenarios for Future Transition."

It examines Eritrea's vulnerabilities, maps out six possible scenarios for a post-Isaias Eritrea and identifies the main risks and opportunities the country and the region would face.

The report urges a broad coalition of international actors take precautionary moves, including immediate and decisive efforts to promote dialogue on avoidance of internal power struggles and mediation of a peaceful transition.