War with Iran and Implications for Africa: 7 May Panel Session

 The Global Affairs Forum of the Africa Governance Centre, an independent think tank based in Accra, Ghana, is hosting a panel discussion on 7 May dealing with the implications of the Iran conflict for global stability and African strategic interests.  It begins at 9:00 am Eastern Time in the United States and Canada.  You can register for the event at this link.  

The panelists are:

--Dr. Mohamed Ibn Chambas, High Representative for Silencing the Guns, African Union

--Amb. David Shinn, adjunct professor of international affairs, George Washington University

--Dr. Isaac Olawale Albert, professor of African history, peace and conflict studies, University of Ibadan

--Dr. Victor Kofi Afetoriom Doke, research fellow and lecturer, Kofi Annan International Peacekeeping Training Centre

--Dr. Paa Kwesi Wolseley Prah, postdoctoral fellow, Lingnan University, Hong Kong  

Tigray News Interview on Iran War and Horn of Africa

 Bisrat Kebede of Tigray News interviewed me on 9 March 2026; the title of the 50-minute video is "Iran Conflict: Sparking a Global Conflict." 

The first forty minutes dealt with the on-going war in Iran while the final ten minutes focused on the situation in the Horn of Africa.  I began my remarks on Iran with the caveat that this is not my area of specialization although I try to follow developments in the Middle East as well as the Horn of Africa and Red Sea region.  

Chinese Oil Companies in Niger in Line of Fire

 US Africa Command's Africa Defense Forum magazine published on 10 February 2026 an article titled "Rebels Target Niger Junta's Oil Revenue."

The Patriotic Movement for Freedom and Justice is engaged in a campaign to topple the military junta in Niger and restore elected President Mohamed Bazoum.  A significant part of the junta's revenue is generated by the oil pipeline from Niger to Benin.  The China National Petroleum Corporation and its subsidiary West African Oil Pipeline Company constructed the pipeline and continue to be engaged in its operations.  Most of the exported crude goes to China.  

China's involvement in the project has put Chinese oil companies in harm's way.  Beijing now seeks to find a way to protect both its investment and personnel still involved in the project from attacks by the Patriotic Movement for Freedom and Justice.    

China and the Replacement of Robert Mugabe

The Conversation published on 7 December 2017 a commentary titled "Why the Focus on China's Role in Mugabe's Fall Missed the Bigger Picture" by Cobus van Staden, South Africa Institute of International Affairs, and Chris Alden, London School of Economics and Political Science.

The authors argue that while China probably had advance word of Robert Mugabe's removal from power in Zimbabwe, China likely had no role in the actual change of regime. The visit to China by army chief Constantino Chiwenga less than two weeks before Mugabe was forced out of office only underscored China's new prominence on the global stage.

Eritrea: Scenarios for Future Transition

Flickr/Steve Rhodes

The International Crisis Group (ICG) released a report on 28 March 2013 titled "Eritrea: Scenarios for Future Transition."

It examines Eritrea's vulnerabilities, maps out six possible scenarios for a post-Isaias Eritrea and identifies the main risks and opportunities the country and the region would face.

The report urges a broad coalition of international actors take precautionary moves, including immediate and decisive efforts to promote dialogue on avoidance of internal power struggles and mediation of a peaceful transition.