An Insider Disects the Collapse of the Tigray People's Liberation Front

 Ethiopia Insight published on 26 May 2025 a commentary titled "TPLF Insider Blows Lid Off Party's Long Road to Collapse."

An anonymous former Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) leader discusses the unraveling of the party.  The insider argues that the TPLF's problems were not caused by any one person but were a cumulative disaster decades in the making.

Ethiopia: Oromia and Ethnic Nationalism

 Ethiopia Insight published on 8 January 2024 a commentary titled "Peace in Ethiopia's Oromia Will Only Come Through Genuine Self-rule" by Ermias Tasfaye, an Ethiopia Insight reporter living in Burayu, Oromia.

This is a detailed, if complex, discussion of the politics of Oromia that offers suggestions for dealing with the current conflicts, which seem to be dominated by extreme ethnic nationalism among Ethiopia's major ethnic groups.  

Ethiopia: Oromo Activist Urges Reconciliation after Release from Prison

 Ethiopia Insight published on 26 June 2022 a commentary titled "Jawar Mohammed: From 'la Luta Continua' to Peace Preacher" by Ermias Tasfaye, Ethiopia Insight reporter.

The government of Ethiopia released from prison early this year Jawar Mohammed, outspoken Oromo nationalist and political activist.  On the few occasions that he as spoken since his release, he has encouraged a democratic and unified Ethiopia.  He called for preserving the territorial integrity of Ethiopia, democratization of the political system, creation of an inclusive political community, and making Ethiopia a home for everyone.   

Ethiopia: Analysis of Abiy Ahmed's Power Base

 Ethiopia Insight published on 14 June 2022 a commentary titled "Abiy Ahmed's Power Base Is More Fragile than Ever" by Patrick Wight, senior editor of Ethiopia Insight.

The author argues that Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed may have to reach a compromise with Tigray Region, thus angering Amhara Region and Eritrean leader Isaias Afewerki.

Control of Economic Resources in Ethiopia

 Ethiopia Insight published on 22 September 2021 a commentary titled "Playing for Keeps: The Struggle for Political Finance in Ethiopia's Transition" by Guido Lanfranchi and Jos Meester, both researchers at Clingendael's Horn of Africa program.

The commentary analyzes the struggle for control in Oromia and Tigray Region over key economic resources used to finance political activity: state or party-owned businesses and independent regional budgets.  

Ethiopia's Dire Dawa: An Ethnic Melting Pot

 Ethiopia Insight published on 2 August 2021 an analysis titled "Dire Dawa's Dilemma: Sharing Power in Ethiopia's Eastern Melting Pot" by an anonymous author.

Dire Dawa hosts significant numbers of Oromo, Somali, and Amhara and presents a challenge for power sharing.  Numerous political parties are active in the federal district.  

Ethiopian Politics

Ethiopia Insight posted on 18 December 2019 a commentary titled "Middleman" by Mebratu Kelecha, University of Westminster.

This is a pessimistic account of political developments in Ethiopia. The author charges that Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed displays a façade of rationality but uses ethno-nationalism as it suits his political purposes. Political space is closing and hopes are fading.

Ethiopia's Political Transition

The International Crisis Group (ICG) published on 16 December 2019 a report titled "Keeping Ethiopia's Transition on the Rails."

The ICG concluded that Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed should move cautiously in implementing reforms, step up efforts to reduce tensions among Oromo factions and between Amhara and Tigray regional leaders, and, if necessary, consider delaying next year's parliamentary election.

What Is Driving Ethiopia's Ethnic Conflicts?

The Institute for Security Studies (ISS) published on 25 November 2019 a report titled "What Is Driving Ethiopia's Ethnic Conflicts?" by Semir Yusuf, ISS Addis Ababa.

The author concludes that decades of exclusivist political arrangements have contributed to a steady rise in ethnic consciousness, with the state and ruling party becoming increasingly incoherent. This has increased ethnic disagreement.

Prescription for Managing Ethiopia's Transition

The International Crisis Group published on 21 February 2019 a report titled "Managing Ethiopia's Unsettled Transition."

The report provides ideas for managing Ethiopia's democratic transition and dealing with ethnic conflict.

Ethiopia: Divisions among the Oromo

Ethiopia Insight posted on 27 January 2019 a commentary titled "Oromos Must Seize Historic Opportunity" by Olaana Abbaaxiiqi, a pen name for a lawyer who lives in the United States.

The author argues that there are too many Oromo political factions serving their own interests. They now have a responsibility to work towards reconciliation and not division of the Oromo people.

Ethiopia: Inside Oromo Politics

Ethiopia Insight published on 1 January 2019 an analysis titled "Team Lemma's Choice: Power or Peace?" by Ermias Tasfaye.

This is a look at the evolving alignments in Oromo politics in Ethiopia.

Can Ethiopia's EPRDF Be Saved?

Ethiopia Insight published on 3 October 2018 a commentary titled "The Old EPRDF Is Dead, Can Its System Be Saved? Five Steps To Save the Federation" by Mehari Taddele Maru, consultant to IGAD, AU and UN.

The author explains why the EPRDF federal system is in danger and suggests a way to avoid a drift towards majoritarian rule and worsening instability.

Ethnic Violence Challenges Ethiopia

The Conversation posted on 1 October 2018 a commentary titled "How Ethnic Violence Is Destabilizing Ethiopia's Reform Gains" by Yohannes Gedamu, George Gwinnett College.

Ethnic conflict is breaking out in a number of Ethiopian regions. The author argues that as long as the Abiy Ahmed government remains fixated on a group rights agenda these problems will continue. This approach privileges division over national unity.

Harmonious Ethnic Relations Remain Key to Ethiopia's Success

The Washington Post published on 25 August 2018 an article titled "Ethiopia's Reforming Prime Minister Runs into a Roadblock of Ethnic Unrest" by Paul Schemm.

The article underscores the fragility of ethnic relations in Ethiopia and how the accelerated reform program of the new prime minister, Abiy Ahmed, may be contributing to those tensions.

Ethiopia: Oromo Politics

Ethiopia Insight posted on 14 August 2018 a commentary titled "Oromo Political Victory Masks Volatile Region As Liberation Front Presses Claim" by Ermias Tesfaye, an analyst based in Burayu.

This is an insiders analysis of the current state of the rapidly changing political situation in Oromia Region of Ethiopia.

Commentary on Ethiopia's New Leader

The Ethiopia Observer published on 4 July 2018 a commentary titled "Ethiopia's Charismatic Leader: Riding the Wave of Populism or Reforming Ethnic Federalism?" by Alemayehu Weldemariam, a PhD candidate at Georgetown University.

The author urges Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed to prove that is the reformist, not the populist, that Ethiopians have long been waiting for. Abiy has to take care that the hopes he has raised are not replaced by despair.

Ethiopia: Reform and Local Conflicts

African Arguments posted on 19 June 2018 a commentary titled "Strains Down South: Ethiopia's National Reforms Rouse Local Tensions" by Wolde Tadesse, Jason Mosley, and Angela Raven-Roberts.

Local conflicts in Ethiopia are being exacerbated by the reform policies of new Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. The authors urge the government to draw on local, cultural, and historical models in the Ethiopian context to resolve the conflicts peacefully.

Ethiopia: History, Religion and Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed

Pambuzuka News published on 15 May 2018 an analysis titled "Dr. Abiy Ahmed's Ethiopia: Anatomy of an African Enigmatic Polity" by Odomaro Mubangizi, dean of the Department of Philosophy at the Institute of Philosophy and Theology.

The author, whose analysis draws extensively on Ethiopia's history and religious diversity, concludes that Ethiopia remains an enigmatic polity that defies clear-cut categorization. He adds that Ethiopia has great potential and its new Prime Minister, Abiy Ahmed, has come at the right time when the country needs fresh insights to propel it into the middle income category by 2025.

Can Abiy Ahmed Save Ethiopia?

Foreign Policy published on 4 April 2018 an analysis titled "Can Abiy Ahmed Save Ethiopia?" by Nizar Manek, Addis Ababa correspondent for Bloomberg News.

The author concludes that, so far, new Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed is sounding the right notes. For the first time in years, there is reason for cautious optimism that political stability can return to Ethiopia.