Prescription for Managing Ethiopia's Transition

The International Crisis Group published on 21 February 2019 a report titled "Managing Ethiopia's Unsettled Transition."

The report provides ideas for managing Ethiopia's democratic transition and dealing with ethnic conflict.

Ethiopia: Divisions among the Oromo

Ethiopia Insight posted on 27 January 2019 a commentary titled "Oromos Must Seize Historic Opportunity" by Olaana Abbaaxiiqi, a pen name for a lawyer who lives in the United States.

The author argues that there are too many Oromo political factions serving their own interests. They now have a responsibility to work towards reconciliation and not division of the Oromo people.

Ethiopia: Inside Oromo Politics

Ethiopia Insight published on 1 January 2019 an analysis titled "Team Lemma's Choice: Power or Peace?" by Ermias Tasfaye.

This is a look at the evolving alignments in Oromo politics in Ethiopia.

Can Ethiopia's EPRDF Be Saved?

Ethiopia Insight published on 3 October 2018 a commentary titled "The Old EPRDF Is Dead, Can Its System Be Saved? Five Steps To Save the Federation" by Mehari Taddele Maru, consultant to IGAD, AU and UN.

The author explains why the EPRDF federal system is in danger and suggests a way to avoid a drift towards majoritarian rule and worsening instability.

Ethnic Violence Challenges Ethiopia

The Conversation posted on 1 October 2018 a commentary titled "How Ethnic Violence Is Destabilizing Ethiopia's Reform Gains" by Yohannes Gedamu, George Gwinnett College.

Ethnic conflict is breaking out in a number of Ethiopian regions. The author argues that as long as the Abiy Ahmed government remains fixated on a group rights agenda these problems will continue. This approach privileges division over national unity.

Harmonious Ethnic Relations Remain Key to Ethiopia's Success

The Washington Post published on 25 August 2018 an article titled "Ethiopia's Reforming Prime Minister Runs into a Roadblock of Ethnic Unrest" by Paul Schemm.

The article underscores the fragility of ethnic relations in Ethiopia and how the accelerated reform program of the new prime minister, Abiy Ahmed, may be contributing to those tensions.

Ethiopia: Oromo Politics

Ethiopia Insight posted on 14 August 2018 a commentary titled "Oromo Political Victory Masks Volatile Region As Liberation Front Presses Claim" by Ermias Tesfaye, an analyst based in Burayu.

This is an insiders analysis of the current state of the rapidly changing political situation in Oromia Region of Ethiopia.

Commentary on Ethiopia's New Leader

The Ethiopia Observer published on 4 July 2018 a commentary titled "Ethiopia's Charismatic Leader: Riding the Wave of Populism or Reforming Ethnic Federalism?" by Alemayehu Weldemariam, a PhD candidate at Georgetown University.

The author urges Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed to prove that is the reformist, not the populist, that Ethiopians have long been waiting for. Abiy has to take care that the hopes he has raised are not replaced by despair.

Ethiopia: Reform and Local Conflicts

African Arguments posted on 19 June 2018 a commentary titled "Strains Down South: Ethiopia's National Reforms Rouse Local Tensions" by Wolde Tadesse, Jason Mosley, and Angela Raven-Roberts.

Local conflicts in Ethiopia are being exacerbated by the reform policies of new Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. The authors urge the government to draw on local, cultural, and historical models in the Ethiopian context to resolve the conflicts peacefully.

Ethiopia: History, Religion and Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed

Pambuzuka News published on 15 May 2018 an analysis titled "Dr. Abiy Ahmed's Ethiopia: Anatomy of an African Enigmatic Polity" by Odomaro Mubangizi, dean of the Department of Philosophy at the Institute of Philosophy and Theology.

The author, whose analysis draws extensively on Ethiopia's history and religious diversity, concludes that Ethiopia remains an enigmatic polity that defies clear-cut categorization. He adds that Ethiopia has great potential and its new Prime Minister, Abiy Ahmed, has come at the right time when the country needs fresh insights to propel it into the middle income category by 2025.

Can Abiy Ahmed Save Ethiopia?

Foreign Policy published on 4 April 2018 an analysis titled "Can Abiy Ahmed Save Ethiopia?" by Nizar Manek, Addis Ababa correspondent for Bloomberg News.

The author concludes that, so far, new Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed is sounding the right notes. For the first time in years, there is reason for cautious optimism that political stability can return to Ethiopia.

Ethiopia: Background to Protests

The Africa Center for Strategic Studies published on 20 March 2018 an analysis titled "The Many Layers of the Ethiopia Crisis" by Mohammed Ademo, a freelance journalist.

The author argues that the answer to Ethiopia's malaise is greater democratic space and national reconciliation and removal of the state of emergency. It is also necessary to address the root causes of the protests in Ethiopia: the inequity within the governing coalition and the need for legitimacy.

Ethiopia's Ethnic Federalism and Internal Tensions

World Politics Review published on 27 February 2018 a commentary titled "Ethiopia's Model of Ethnic Federalism Buckles Under Internal Tensions" by William Davison, a freelance journalist based in Addis Ababa.

Davison describes the tensions in Ethiopia's governance model of ethnic federalism as the country navigates the resignation of Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn.

Resignation of Ethiopia's Prime Minister

African Arguments published on 15 February 2018 an analysis titled "Ethiopia: The Relentless Protests that Forced the Prime Minister to Resign" by Gonje De Wadla.

The author argues that the recent resignation of Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn and the release of some political prisoners will not end the protests in Ethiopia.

Is Ethiopia Falling Apart?

Foreign Policy published on 11 January 2018 a commentary titled "Ethiopia Is Falling Apart" by Mohammed Ademo, a freelance journalist based in Washington, and Jeffrey Smith, executive director of the Vanguard Africa Movement.

The authors conclude that tepid reforms and halfhearted concessions won't save Ethiopia from its existential crisis and that EPRDF leaders have no choice but to change course.

Ethiopia: Social Unrest Undermines Economic Progress

World Politics Review published on 31 March 2017 an analysis titled "Ongoing Social Unrest Undermines Booming Ethiopia's Grand Economic Plans" by Matthew C. DuPee.

The article concludes that Ethiopia's long-term positive economic prospects are being offset by an ongoing surge in civil unrest and regional instability.

2016 Protests in Ethiopia

The Rift Valley Forum published in November 2016 a summary report titled "A Year of Protests in Ethiopia."

The report emphasized that grievances specific to the Oromo and Amhara people and regions converged into a youthful protest movement, which had no clear political agenda or leadership. A reshuffled inclusive and technocratic cabinet brought some political breathing space for the government but did not address the underlying issues driving the protests.

Ethiopia and the State of Emergency

Chatham House published on 18 October 2016 a commentary titled "Ethiopian Politics Beyond the Vanguard?" by Jason Mosley.

Mosley concluded that protests this past year in Ethiopia indicated the population--especially the youth, which has benefitted from the expansion in education--no longer accepts the EPRDF's vanguard role. The coming months will reveal whether there is a future for the EPRDF government beyond the vanguard, potentially opening the way for more genuinely participatory governance.

Protests in Ethiopia: Criticism for Consideration

African Arguments posted on 7 October 2016 a critique titled "Ethiopia: How Popular Uprising Became the Only Option" by Michael C. Mammo, PhD student at the University of Birmingham.

This is a highly critical but articulate commentary on the factors leading up to the protests in Ethiopia and the manner in which they have been handled by the government of Ethiopia.

Ethiopia's Tsadkan Gebre Tensae Initiates Important Discussion on Future of Country

Tsadkan Gebre Tensae, Chief of the General Staff of the Ethiopian National Defense Forces from 1991 to 2001, one of the founders of the TPLF and confidant of Prime Minister Meles Zenawi until their falling out early in this century, submitted in July a comprehensive paper to HornAffairs Amharic whose title translated as "The Political Conditions of Our Country and Recommendations." This is one of the most important critiques of governance in Ethiopia since 1991 because of the person who wrote it, the fact that he remains in Ethiopia, and the general thoughtfulness of the paper. It launched a discussion among Ethiopians that continues to the present day. The paper and comments about it should also be read by non-Ethiopians who are interested in Ethiopia and want to see it succeed as a country. HornAffairs English published an abridged version of General Tsadkan's paper on 4 August 2016.

General Tsadkan argues that the fuzzy boundary between the EPRDF and the government is one of the major problems facing the political system. He is concerned about the lack of a check and balance system and calls for a more level political playing field. He urges that Ethiopia hold free, fair, regular, democratic elections with independent international observers. He is critical of some elements of the economic system but ambivalent about the theory that should guide Ethiopia except that he does not believe the neo-liberal political economy is a viable option. He concludes that Ethiopia is at a crossroads.

Professor Messay Kebede, who has been at the University of Dayton since 1998, provided one of the first and most articulate responses to General Tsadkan's paper in a review submitted to Ethiomedia on 28 July 2016.

General Tsadkan then responded to Messay Kebede on 31 July 2016 in an English-language submission to HornAffairs English.

To its credit, the EPRDF has allowed this discussion to continue. It will be even more important if it takes the discussion seriously.