Ethiopia: Amhara Nationalists and National Dialogue

 Ethiopia Insight published on 27 July 2026 a commentary titled "Amhara Nationalism Faces Historic Choice in National Dialogue" by Henok Ambachew, a pseudonym for a former lecturer at Bahir Dar University.

Ethiopia's ruling Prosperity Party has replaced the EPRDF coalition model with a single national party, which the author says is based on a different organizing principle called "demographic majoritarianism."

The Prosperity Party increasingly reflects the numerical weight of Ethiopia's population.  The 45-member executive committee consists of 10 Oromo members, 8 Amharas, 4 Somalis with the remaining distributed among other regional constituencies.  This was not the outcome desired by many Amhara elites.

Ethiopia's New Prosperity Party

Ethiopia Insight posted on 24 December 2019 a commentary titled "Why Prosperity Party Is Needed" by Melaku Habtewold, pen name for senior federal government official.

The author argues that the EPRDF must be reformed. The pan-Ethiopian Prosperity Party will reverse fragmentation, boost political inclusivity, and allow vital institutions to flourish.

Ethiopia's Political Transition

The International Crisis Group (ICG) published on 16 December 2019 a report titled "Keeping Ethiopia's Transition on the Rails."

The ICG concluded that Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed should move cautiously in implementing reforms, step up efforts to reduce tensions among Oromo factions and between Amhara and Tigray regional leaders, and, if necessary, consider delaying next year's parliamentary election.

What Is Driving Ethiopia's Ethnic Conflicts?

The Institute for Security Studies (ISS) published on 25 November 2019 a report titled "What Is Driving Ethiopia's Ethnic Conflicts?" by Semir Yusuf, ISS Addis Ababa.

The author concludes that decades of exclusivist political arrangements have contributed to a steady rise in ethnic consciousness, with the state and ruling party becoming increasingly incoherent. This has increased ethnic disagreement.

Hit the Pause Button for Sidama Statehood

Ethiopia Insight published on 25 July 2019 a commentary titled "Like Every Dispute in Ethiopia, Sidama Statehood Must Wait" by Teshome M. Borago, accountant and political analyst.

The author says that attempts to resolve sensitive issues such as statehood for Sidama should only occur after elections in 2020 and the emergence of a new national consensus.

Ethiopia's Quiet Revolution

The Journal of Democracy published in July 2019 an article titled "Ethiopia's Quiet Revolution" by Jon Temin and Yoseph Badwaza, both at Freedom House.

The authors concluded that Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed faces major challenges before possible elections in 2020. He draws positive headlines around the globe, but is not always helped by his messaging at home. He and his government need to do more to lay out their vision of a comprehensive reform process with clear bench-marks and goals, and they need to set up mechanisms that can monitor progress and ensure accountability.

Ethiopia: Sidama Insisting on Statehood

The International Crisis Group (ICG) published on 4 July 2019 an analysis titled "Time for Ethiopia to Bargain with Sidama over Statehood."

The Sidama people in southern Ethiopia have threatened to unilaterally declare their own regional state within Ethiopia's federation on 18 July 2019. Each of Ethiopia's ethnic groups is constitutionally entitled to a vote on forming a new state if its governing council requests one. The poll is supposed to take place within a year of the request, which in Sidama's case came on 18 July 2018. ICG recommends that the central government offer Sidama leaders a referendum date at the earliest feasible opportunity.

Election Challenges Facing Ethiopia

Ethiopia Insight published on 27 February 2019 an analysis titled "Ethiopia Elite Lost in Electoral Maze under Abiy's Gaze" by Rene Lefort, specialist in African affairs, and Kjetil Tronvoll, Bjorknes University College Oslo.

The authors note there is widespread concern that Ethiopia will not be ready for democratic elections in May 2020. There is a slide towards personalization and deinstitutionalization of power in the country. There is no quick fix to the predicament that Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, the EPRDF, and Ethiopia are in.

Prescription for Managing Ethiopia's Transition

The International Crisis Group published on 21 February 2019 a report titled "Managing Ethiopia's Unsettled Transition."

The report provides ideas for managing Ethiopia's democratic transition and dealing with ethnic conflict.

Ethiopia: Ethnic Federalism under Pressure

Ethiopia Insight posted on 28 November 2018 an analysis titled "As Southern Nations Break Free Pressure Mounts on EPRDF" by William Davison and Kulle Kursha.

The authors look at the fragmentation taking place in Ethiopia's Southern Nations, Nationalities and Peoples' State and speculate what this means for Ethiopia's policy of ethnic federalism.

Ethiopia May Have 10th Federal State

Ethiopia Insight posted on 3 November 2018 an article titled "Sidama Take Another Step Towards Statehood" by Ermias Tesfaye.

The Council of Southern Nations in Ethiopia has agreed to Sidama Zone's request to become the tenth federal state in the country.

Ethiopia: A Look at the State of Political Parties

Ethiopia Insight posted on 19 October 2018 a commentary titled "Rising Allies May Breach Frontier Despite EPRDF Stalling on Expansion" by Elias Gebreselassie, freelance journalist based in Addis Ababa.

The author suggests the the ruling Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) coalition may face more significant competition from smaller ethnic-based political parties in future elections.

Ethnic Violence Challenges Ethiopia

The Conversation posted on 1 October 2018 a commentary titled "How Ethnic Violence Is Destabilizing Ethiopia's Reform Gains" by Yohannes Gedamu, George Gwinnett College.

Ethnic conflict is breaking out in a number of Ethiopian regions. The author argues that as long as the Abiy Ahmed government remains fixated on a group rights agenda these problems will continue. This approach privileges division over national unity.

Ethiopia: Reform and Local Conflicts

African Arguments posted on 19 June 2018 a commentary titled "Strains Down South: Ethiopia's National Reforms Rouse Local Tensions" by Wolde Tadesse, Jason Mosley, and Angela Raven-Roberts.

Local conflicts in Ethiopia are being exacerbated by the reform policies of new Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. The authors urge the government to draw on local, cultural, and historical models in the Ethiopian context to resolve the conflicts peacefully.

Ethiopia: Background to Protests

The Africa Center for Strategic Studies published on 20 March 2018 an analysis titled "The Many Layers of the Ethiopia Crisis" by Mohammed Ademo, a freelance journalist.

The author argues that the answer to Ethiopia's malaise is greater democratic space and national reconciliation and removal of the state of emergency. It is also necessary to address the root causes of the protests in Ethiopia: the inequity within the governing coalition and the need for legitimacy.

Resignation of Ethiopia's Prime Minister

African Arguments published on 15 February 2018 an analysis titled "Ethiopia: The Relentless Protests that Forced the Prime Minister to Resign" by Gonje De Wadla.

The author argues that the recent resignation of Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn and the release of some political prisoners will not end the protests in Ethiopia.

2016 Protests in Ethiopia

The Rift Valley Forum published in November 2016 a summary report titled "A Year of Protests in Ethiopia."

The report emphasized that grievances specific to the Oromo and Amhara people and regions converged into a youthful protest movement, which had no clear political agenda or leadership. A reshuffled inclusive and technocratic cabinet brought some political breathing space for the government but did not address the underlying issues driving the protests.

Protests in Ethiopia: Criticism for Consideration

African Arguments posted on 7 October 2016 a critique titled "Ethiopia: How Popular Uprising Became the Only Option" by Michael C. Mammo, PhD student at the University of Birmingham.

This is a highly critical but articulate commentary on the factors leading up to the protests in Ethiopia and the manner in which they have been handled by the government of Ethiopia.

Ethiopia's Tsadkan Gebre Tensae Initiates Important Discussion on Future of Country

Tsadkan Gebre Tensae, Chief of the General Staff of the Ethiopian National Defense Forces from 1991 to 2001, one of the founders of the TPLF and confidant of Prime Minister Meles Zenawi until their falling out early in this century, submitted in July a comprehensive paper to HornAffairs Amharic whose title translated as "The Political Conditions of Our Country and Recommendations." This is one of the most important critiques of governance in Ethiopia since 1991 because of the person who wrote it, the fact that he remains in Ethiopia, and the general thoughtfulness of the paper. It launched a discussion among Ethiopians that continues to the present day. The paper and comments about it should also be read by non-Ethiopians who are interested in Ethiopia and want to see it succeed as a country. HornAffairs English published an abridged version of General Tsadkan's paper on 4 August 2016.

General Tsadkan argues that the fuzzy boundary between the EPRDF and the government is one of the major problems facing the political system. He is concerned about the lack of a check and balance system and calls for a more level political playing field. He urges that Ethiopia hold free, fair, regular, democratic elections with independent international observers. He is critical of some elements of the economic system but ambivalent about the theory that should guide Ethiopia except that he does not believe the neo-liberal political economy is a viable option. He concludes that Ethiopia is at a crossroads.

Professor Messay Kebede, who has been at the University of Dayton since 1998, provided one of the first and most articulate responses to General Tsadkan's paper in a review submitted to Ethiomedia on 28 July 2016.

General Tsadkan then responded to Messay Kebede on 31 July 2016 in an English-language submission to HornAffairs English.

To its credit, the EPRDF has allowed this discussion to continue. It will be even more important if it takes the discussion seriously.

Ethiopia Confronts Ethnic Protests

World Politics Review published on 30 August 2016 a commentary titled "Ethiopia's Regime Prioritizes Power over Reform as Ethnic Protests Continue" by William Davison, a freelance journalist based in Addis Ababa.

The author questions whether the ruling EPRDF is sufficiently flexible to deal successfully with the grievances raised during the recent ethnic protests.