South Sudan's Latest Crisis: Deja Vu

 World Politics Review published on 20 June 2025 an analysis titled "South Sudan's Latest Crisis Is Following a Familiar Script" by Lesley Anne Warner.

The fragile peace established in South Sudan in 2018 may be unraveling.  South Sudan is returning to form: erosion of power sharing, military fragmentation, and an apparent succession crisis.  

Sudan Conflict Spills Over into South Sudan

 AEI's Critical Threats Africa File published on 20 March 2025 an article titled "RSF Attacks Spread to South Sudan" by Kathryn Tyson and John Reece.

There are indications that the civil war in Sudan is spilling over into South Sudan with the Rapid Support Forces supporting Salva Kiir's government and the Sudan Armed Forces backing South Sudan rebels.

South Sudan's Shaky Peace Process

 The Conversation published on 26 April 2022 a commentary titled "Peace in South Sudan Hinges on Forging a Unified Military Force: But It Is Proving Hard" by Madhav Joshi, University of Notre Dame.

Creating a unified armed forces is critical to South Sudan's peace process.  Lack of trust by Salva Kiir and Riek Machar is contributing to difficulties in unifying the armed forces.  South Sudan's peace and stability depend on Kiir and Machar ending the politics of brinkmanship.  

Whither South Sudan?

The United States Institute of Peace (USIP) posted on 7 October 2019 a commentary titled "South Sudan: Hope for the Best, Plan for the Worst" by David Deng, South Sudanese-American human rights lawyer, and Aly Verjee, USIP.

The authors do not predict that failure of the peace process in South Sudan is inevitable nor necessarily imminent. But there are signs the hopeful outcome they desire may not come to pass. They suggest two possible negative scenarios and what mignt be done to ameliorate them.

How Does a New Government in Sudan Impact the Situation in South Sudan?

African Arguments posted on 30 April 2019 a commentary titled "What Al-Bashir's Removal Means for South Sudan's Fragile Peace" by Matthew Lerichie, Ohio University.

The author argues that Omar al-Bashir was a major power broker in South Sudan's peace process. The question now is what role Sudan will play since Bashir has been removed from office.

South Sudan: Armed Groups and Mediation

The Institute for Security Studies published in December 2018 a report titled "Compound Fractures: Political Formations, Armed Groups and Regional Mediation in South Sudan" by David Deng, South Sudanese/US human rights lawyer.

The author concludes that although IGAD was ultimately successful in brokering an agreement among the conflicting parties, the mediation has struggled with major challenges throughout the conflict, including the zero-sum thinking of the warring parties, which remain committed to military solutions and unwillingness to compromise. This has led to the rise of various armed opposition groups in recent years.

South Sudan: Conditions for Achieving Peace

The Institute for Security Studies published on 10 December 2018 a report titled "Compound Fractures: Political Formations, Armed Groups and Regional Mediation in South Sudan" by David Deng, a South Sudanese/US human rights lawyer.

The author argues that the Revitalized Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in the Republic of South Sudan (R-ARCSS) will only succeed if political and military leaders convince the population of South Sudan and the broader international community that they are committed to transforming the way politics is done.

Wrong Way to Peace in South Sudan

The Enough project published in September 2018 a commentary titled "Neo-colonialism and a Faustian Bargain Undermine South Sudan's Peace Deal" by John Prendergast and Brian Adeba.

The authors argue that the Revitalized Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in the Republic of South Sudan is based on a misguided focus on power-sharing instead of transforming the systems of governance.

Peace Ahead for South Sudan?

The Institute for Security Studies (ISS) published on 22 June 2018 an analysis titled "New Hopes for South Sudan's Peace Process" by Meressa K. Dessu, ISS Addis Ababa.

It is a cautiously optimistic account that peace may finally prevail in South Sudan following ongoing talks between South Sudan President Salva Kiir and opposition leader Riek Machar.

The New York Times published on 27 June 2018 an article titled "A Peace Deal for South Sudan Is Signed. Will It Last?" by Megan Specia.

The article reports the signing of an agreement on 27 June but noted many are concerned that a lasting resolution to the conflict is still a long way off. Peace deals signed by both leaders have fallen apart in the past and the war has become more complicated with the passage of time.

South Sudan and Sanctions

The Nation posted on 9 April 2018 an article titled "Can US Sanctions on South Sudan Rein in a Nation of Warlords?" by Simona Foltyn, freelance journalist.

The author noted that limited US sanctions so far have failed to bring about any positive change in behavior in South Sudan. Without regional buy-in to enforce them, they could have the opposite effect on the South Sudan government. They also impact disproportionately the government rather than the opposition.

Is Justice Possible during South Sudan's Civil War?

The Institute for Security Studies (ISS) published on 15 March 2018 a commentary titled "Is Justice Possible during South Sudan's Civil War?" by Peter Fabricius, ISS consultant.

Based on two recent death sentences, including one for a South African national, handed down recently by a court in Juba, the author suggests that probably no one is getting real justice in South Sudan.

South Sudan and the Federalism Debate

The Juba-based Sudd Institute published on 18 May 2017 a policy brief titled "Federalism Debate in South Sudan: Laying the Foundation for Acceptable, Responsive, and Inclusive Governance" by Abraham Awolich.

Some 86 percent of respondents were dissatisfied with the current system of government in South Sudan while 83 percent supported the establishment of a federal system of government. They rejected any possibility of returning the country to the former ten states and they were evenly split over the issue of twenty-eight states.

China and South Sudan's Armed Conflict

The Paris-based Asia Centre published in January 2017 a research note titled "Strategy of 'Parallels': China in the South Sudanese Armed Conflict" by Obert Hodzi, a post-doctoral researcher at the University of Helsinki.

The author argues that China's strategy in South Sudan is not linear but rather a deliberately convoluted strategy of "parallels." The article explores this strategy of "parallels" and the implications it may have on Beijing's future engagement in civil wars in Africa.

Conflict and Famine in South Sudan

The International Crisis Group published on 26 April 2017 a report titled "Instruments of Pain (II): Conflict and Famine in South Sudan."

Some 100,000 South Sudanese are now suffering famine conditions with another 5.5 million at risk. The UN has requested $1.6 billion to address the humanitarian crisis but received pledges so far of only $439 million. This crisis has been caused largely by poor leadership and governance in South Sudan.

South Sudan's National Dialogue

The Juba-based Sudd Institute published on 31 March 2017 a commentary titled "South Sudan's National Dialogue: What It Should Be and Why It Should Be Supported."

The Sudd Institute concludes that the national dialogue process should be a people-to-people process involving citizens, the state and elites of various political shades. Most important, it should start at the basic level of administrative units where each level sends its delegates and resolutions to a level above it until they reach the national dialogue at the top.

South Sudan's Man Made Disaster

The Washington Post published on 31 March 2017 an article titled "South Sudan's People Are Starving, and Fighters Are Blocking Aid" by Kevin Sieff.

The article lays the blame for famine and food shortages in South Sudan on government and opposition fighters who are preventing humanitarian workers from delivering food aid to needy South Sudanese. The U.S. deputy ambassador to the United Nations is quoted as saying that the government's actions "may amount to deliberate starvation tactics."

Will South Sudan's National Dialogue Make a Difference?

The Institute for Security Studies (ISS) published on 24 March 2017 a commentary titled "South Sudan's National Dialogues: Can the AU Make a Difference?" by Amanda Lucey and Liezelle Kumalo, both researchers at ISS Pretoria.

They conclude that national dialogue offers the hope that President Salva Kiir may finally be willing to make the political process for South Sudan more inclusive. But it could also be viewed as a ruse to deflect attention from implementing South Sudan's latest peace agreement.

South Sudan Peace Process and the AU

The Institute for Security Studies (ISS) published on 22 March 2017 a study titled "Democratise or Disintegrate: How the AU Can Help South Sudan" by Amanda Lucey and Liezelle Kumalo, both with ISS.

Southern Sudanese are divided on the legitimacy of the peace process, which is stalled in any event. The report looks at ways the African Union can enhance the prospects for peace in South Sudan.

Fault Lines in South Sudan

The Institute for Security Studies published on 12 January 2017 a study titled "Beyond ARCISS: New Fault Lines in South Sudan" by Christina Roque, PhD candidate at Oxford, and Remember Miamingi, South Sudan human rights expert.

This report looks beyond the issues in South Sudan concerning peacekeeping and analyzes what is required for a broader and more sustainable peace.

Can Genocide Be Prevented in South Sudan?

World Politics Review published on 22 December 2016 a commentary titled "Does Any Party in South Sudan Have the Will to Prevent Genocide?" by Andrew Green, a foreign correspondent based in East Africa.

The commentary, paraphrasing outgoing UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon, suggests that even if South Sudanese President Salva Kiir is sincere about his commitment to dialogue, an environment does not exist for all stakeholders to participate with freedom and in safety. What does exist are conditions for genocide. Lacking, it seems, is the will to prevent it.