AU Mission in Somalia Plans for Earlier Exit

 AEIs Critical Threats Africa File posted on 13 August 2026 an article titled "Somalia--AUSSOM" by Michael DeAngelo.  

The African Union Stabilization and Support Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM) has begun an accelerated handoff of responsibility to the Somali National Army.  AUSSOM's mission end date is December 2029, but the goal is to complete most of the handoff in 2028.  Al-Shabaab will likely exploit any lapse in counterterrorism efforts that might result from this decision.  

Somali States Align Against Mogadishu

 AEI's Critical Threats Africa File posted on 16 July 2026 an article titled "Puntland Standoff with the Federal Government of Somalia" by Michael DeAngelo and Aaryaman Shah.

Ties between the Somali government in Mogadishu and Puntland state continue to deteriorate as Mogadishu implements its constitutional and electoral agenda.  The national Somali Future Council (SFC) opposition coalition, which includes Puntland and Jubaland states and leading Somali opposition figures, has threatened to hold parallel elections and establish new government structures if Mogadishu continues to implement its agenda.  

Is Ethiopian Prime Minister Using Best Tactics in Somali Region?

 Ethiopia Insight published on 23 June 2023 a commentary titled "Ethiopia's Abiy May Have Opened the Door to Al-Shabaab" by Muktar Ismail, an adviser to the Somali regional government.  

Ethiopia successfully repelled an al-Shabaab attack in Somali Region last year, but the jihadi group has more recently taken advantage of disgruntled Ethiopians and, according to one account, infiltrated between 600 and 1,000 into Somali Region.  Abiy has deployed more forces in Somali Region but their tactics are reportedly alienating local Somalis and contributing to al-Shabaab's ability to recruit more jihadists.  Abiy's timing of the dissolution of the controversial Liyu police in Somali Region may also be counterproductive.  

Somalia's Fractious Federal Politics

War on the Rocks posted on 30 January 2019 a commentary titled "The Saga of Mukhtar Robow and Somalia's Fractious Politics" by Christopher Anzalone, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard University, and Stig Jarle Hansen, Norwegian University of Life Sciences.

The authors argue that former al-Shabaab leader Muktar Robow's arrest by the Somali government should be understood in the context of the power struggle between Somali President Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed "Farmajo" and Prime Minister Hassan Ali Khayre, on the one hand, and the Somali semi-autonomous regional states. Farmajo's and Khayre's opposition to Robow was tied to their own desire to weaken the power of South West State, where Robow was running for president.

Somalia Shoots Itself in the Foot

The Institute for Security Studies (ISS) posted on 11 January 2019 a commentary titled "Somalia Shoots Itself in the Foot" by Peter Fabricius, ISS consultant.

The Somali government declared Nicholas Haysom, a South African lawyer and seasoned diplomat, persona non grata on 1 January, thereby forcing UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres to replace him as the UN Special Envoy to Somalia. Haysom criticized the Somali government's decision to arrest Muktar Robow, a candidate in the presidential elections last December in Somalia's South West State. Robow had earler defected from al-Shabaab where he once was the deputy leader.

Fabricius argues that this is not how to deal with al-Shabaab or to manage Somali federalism. What has been lost is a prime opportunity to demonstrate that former al-Shabaab members can be accepted into mainstream Somali society.