Scenarios for China-Africa Trade During Tariff War

 Nanyang Technological University posted on 5 September 2025 an analysis titled "China-Africa Trade Scenarios Amid Global Tariff War" by Rafiq Raji.

The author identifies 4 China-Africa trade scenarios emerging from the global tariff war.  (1) China continues to sell Africa manufactured goods and buy raw materials, resulting in growing African trade deficits.  (2)  China has excess manufacturing capacity and uses Africa as a dumping ground for Chinese goods. (3)  African countries exchange higher Chinese investment in mineral extraction for more value-added manufacturing capacity. (4)  Chinese firms invest in the production of manufactured goods from extracted raw materials both in Africa as well as upstream processing that plugs into global value chains.

Chinese Investment in Zambia

 News Diggers recently aired a 54-minute video documentary titled "Chinese Investment in Zambia -- the Good, the Bad, and the Dangerous" by Joseph Mwenda.

The documentary focuses on environmental damage caused by the collapse of a copper mine tailing dam controlled by Sino-Metals Ltd., sulfur dioxide released into the air by Avocado Mining Ltd., and dangerous working conditions in artisanal copper mines where Rong Xing Investment buys much of the production.  

China's embassy in Lusaka tried to prevent the airing of this controversial documentary.   

The Changing Shape of Chinese Investment in Africa

 The Center for Global Development published in June 2025 a paper titled "China's Investment Pivot and Africa's Industrial Prospects: Any Hope for African 'Flying Geese'?" by Charles Kenny.  

The paper examines the changing shape of Chinese investment in Africa as it evolves from largescale infrastructure toward small scale manufacturing.  It looks at the opportunity for the region in the context of a deepening manufacturing labor shortage in China; discusses barriers to that opportunity in both China and Africa; and the potential response of Western countries.  

China Increases Manufacturing in Morocco to Take Advantage of Free Trade Agreements

 The New York Times published on 7 May 2025 an article titled "Why China Is Investing So Much Money in Moroccan Factories" by Patricia Cohen. 

China has been investing in a major way in the electric vehicle and battery production sector in Morocco.  The reason is simple.  Morocco has a free trade agreement with the EU, and this is a way to avoid high tariffs.  Morocco also has a free trade agreement with the United States, but the Trump administration has just placed a 10 percent tariff on goods from Morocco.  Nevertheless, this is a lower tariff than will likely be the case with most countries.  

Implications of US-China Trade War for Africa

 The China Global South Project published on 23 April 2025 an analysis titled "Lessons for Africa from the U.S.-China Trade Conflict: Diversify or Be Disrupted" by Pamela Carslake, Afro-Sino Center for International Relations in Accra.

The US-China trade war underscores the urgency for African countries to diversify their trade relationships and invest in building resilient manufacturing sectors. 

Fixing Africa's Trade Deficit with China

 The China Global South Project published on 24 January 2025 a commentary titled "The Persistent China-Africa Trade Imbalance--Is It China's Fault?" by C. Geraud Neema Byamungu.  

Africa continues to have a persistent trade deficit with China--$62 billion in 2024.  The author argues that Africa is structurally ill-equipped to rebalance the trade relationship and must build a strong, competitive manufacturing sector to move beyond its dependence on raw material exports.  For its part, Chinese companies can invest more heavily in downstream segments of African raw material value chains.  

China-Africa Science and Technology Collaboration

 Springer published in 2024 an open access book titled "China-Africa Science, Technology and Innovation Collaboration" edited by Mammo Muchie, Angathevar Baskaran, and Mingfeng Tang.

The book is based on papers presented at a conference with the same title sponsored by the Chinese embassy in South Africa.  About half of the authors are Chinese.  The preface comments that "Africa must also learn from the great success China has achieved.  There is a lesson Africa must learn how China managed to deal with and respond to external powers." 

The chapters cover the following sectors:

--China-Africa Collaboration to Higher Education.

--China-Africa Research Collaboration and Training.

--China-Africa Collaboration in Agriculture, Food Security and Environmental Management.

--China-Africa Collaboration in Telecommunications and Space.

--Evolution of China-Africa Collaboration in Science, Technology and Innovation.

--China-Africa Collaboration in Digital Technologies.

--China-Africa Collaboration in Finance and Renewable Energy.

--China-Africa Collaboration in Health Sector.

--China-Africa Collaboration in Manufacturing.

The Nuanced Reality of China-Africa Relations

 American Diplomacy published in November 2024 a commentary titled "China in Africa: The Nuanced Reality of Belt and Road" by Hank Cohen, former US assistant secretary of state for African affairs.  

The author points out that China has shifted from doing infrastructure projects based on loans to working on a grant basis.  China is now providing much needed infrastructure for African countries without the harm of tying them up in debt.  He concludes that the reality of China's Africa policy contains more shades of grey than popularly understood.  The positives for Africans are real, but so are the potential pitfalls.

Can Africa and Europe Counter Markets Flooded with Chinese Products?

 The European Council on Foreign Relations published on 4 October 2024 an article titled "Value-added and Value Lost: The Macroeconomic Limits of China's Africa Strategy" by Theodore Murphy.

China's manufacturing overcapacity relies on exports to the rest of the world, including Africa, flooding international markets with both low end and high-end Chinese-made goods.  As African economies try to increase their low value manufactured products, they must compete with low-cost Chinese products.  European economies face a similar problem from China's high-end manufacturing.  

The author suggests European and African economic policy makers should counter Chinese overcapacity jointly while creating new areas for Africa-Europe economic cooperation.

Comparing China's and EU's Trade with Africa (in French)

 Thierry Pairault posted on 1 September 2024 a study titled "L'Union europeenne face a la Chine en Afrique." 

The study provides an overview of China's and the EU's trade relations with Africa from 2000 until the end of 2023.  Since 2000, the EU collectively has been a far larger market for African exports than is the case for China.  While Africa's imports from China are growing more rapidly than those from the EU, the latter remains a larger source of African imports than China.  Distance has much to do with this trade relationship.  

China Moves Electric Vehicle Production to Morocco to Avoid US and EU Tariffs

 Benjamindada.com posted on 6 August 2024 an article titled "China's EU Players Chart Course for Morocco Amid Subsidy Squeeze" by Andrew Christian.

Chinese electric vehicle manufacturers are shifting production to Morocco to take advantage of free trade agreements with the US and EU that permit goods manufactured there to enter both markets and bypass import restrictions and tariffs.

China's Economic Transition and Relations with Africa

 The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace published in May 2024 an analysis titled "How Is China 's Economic Transition Affecting Its Relations with Africa?" by Zainab Usman and Tang Xiaoyang.

The analysis considers the impact of China's slowing economic growth on its trade, investment, monetary, loan, and soft power ties with Africa.  It also takes into account the actions of Africa's other partners, especially the United States.  

China Investing Heavily in African Minerals

 Reuters published on 28 May 2024 an article titled "Post-COVID China Is Back in Africa and Doubling Down on Minerals" by Rachel Savage and Duncan Miriri.

China-Africa trade continues to grow but mostly on the basis of more Chinese exports to Africa.  Chinese loans to Africa dropped sharply after COVID-19 and have not yet demonstrated significant signs of revival.  Chinese investments, mainly in mineral projects, have, however, increased impressively.  

New Chinese Industrial City in Egypt?

 Egypt's Zawya published on 12 March 2024 an article titled "Egypt, China Discuss Prospects for New Chinese Industrial City."

China is in discussion with Egypt to establish a Chinese industrial zone along the Mediterranean Sea to serve the local market and exports to Europe and the United States.

Comment:  The proposal appears to be at an early stage of negotiation.  

Ethiopia: Chinese Imports Potentially Reduce Female Employment

The Conversation published on 11 January 2024 a commentary titled "Chinese Imports Could Undermine Ethiopian Manufacturing- Leaving Women Workers Worst Off" by Sylvanus Kwaku Afesorgbor, University of Guelph, Ruby Acquah, University of Sussex, and Yohannes Ayele, University of Sussex.

China is the largest source of imports for Ethiopia, including inexpensive manufactured goods.  Lessons from Ethiopia suggest that cheap imports from China reduce the ability of local manufacturing firms to compete.  This, in turn, results in layoffs and lower wages.  The authors conclude that women are the first to be laid off work, but import competition also results in lower wages for men.

Do African Countries Need a New Economic Model?

 World Political Review published on 16 January 2024 an analysis titled "African Countries Need a New Economic Model" by Liam Taylor, freelance journalist based in Addis Ababa.

The author argues the structural adjustment reforms that governments adopted in the 1980s, often under duress, have set the tone for economic policy ever since.  The lacunae in that model--in particular, its neglect of the state and its dismissal of industrial policy--are part of the reason why Africa remains so vulnerable to external shocks.

The rise of China has given renewed luster to statist development models.  In the West, industrial policy is no longer a dirty word.  Could the current moment prove an inflection point?  The author concludes the old models of public finance, economic policy, and even the climate are all creaking.  So far policymakers have been hesitant to explore new ones.  Now is as good a time as any to start.  

Comment:  While it may be a good time to look at new economic models on a case-by-case basis, a new model for all of Africa makes little sense.  Some of the continent's 54 countries are doing just fine with their current model.  An end to corruption in a number of other countries is more important than implementing a new model that permits corruption to continue.  And for goodness' sake, don't return to the statism of the 1960s and 1970s with bloated manufacturing enterprises and inefficient service industries controlled by governments.  

Chinese Authors Argue China Is Better at Industrializing Africa Than Is the West

 Wenhua Zongheng: Quarterly Journal of Chinese Thought published in October 2023 an edition titled "China-Africa Relations in the Belt and Road Era."

It contains the following articles:

--Editorial: China and Africa's Attempts at Industrialization by Grieve Chelwa, Tricontinental Institute for Social Research

--How Can China Contribute to the Continent's Economic Development? by Zhou Jinyan, Shanghai International Studies University

--China's Belt and Road Initiative and African Industrialization by Tang Xiaoyang, Tsinghua University

The articles by the Chinese scholars essentially argue that the West has failed to offer Africa a successful model for industrialization and China can do it better.  

Algeria Partners with China to Produce Heavy Weapons

 Military Africa published on 28 June 2023 an article titled "Algeria Embarks on Manufacturing Heavy Chinese Weaponry."

Algeria has entered into a partnership with China that will enable it to manufacture heavy Chinese weaponry under license.  The weapons include the CS/LM5 and CS/LM12-M1 multi-barrel rotary machine guns and the LG5/QLU-11 automatic grenade launcher.  Algeria intends to become self-reliant in producing advanced weaponry.  

Major Chinese Investments in Suez Canal Economic Zone

 Zawya Projects posted on 29 May 2023 an article titled "Chinese Companies Flock to Egypt's SCZONE" by Eman Hamed.

Chinese companies have announced more than $3 billion in investment projects in the coming years in the Suez Canal Economic Zone in the chemical, textile/apparel, power, pipes, and iron and steel sectors. 

Comment:  Historically, not all announcements of Chinese investment projects materialize and it will be instructive what happens in this case.

Africa-China: Natural Resources, Markets and Votes (in French)

 Geostrategiques published in March 2023 an article titled "Afrique-Chine: Des Ressources Naturelles, des Marches et des Votes" by Thierry Pairault. 

Chinese foreign direct investment in Africa is modest, which limits its role in manufacturing and industrialization.  China is a major, but diminishing, source of loans for infrastructure projects and Africa's largest trading partner.